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Next year should see free childcare made available to many more parents, as a promise from Rishi Sunak’s Government starts being phased in.

By September 2025 ,all children under five are supposed to be entitled to 30 free hours care a week, in what should be a welcome relief for families struggling with high fees and the cost of living.

But new research, seen exclusively by i, suggests the policy will actually backfire and make the situation much worse by triggering thousands more nursery closures across the country.

A study by UK innovation agency Nesta – being launched at the Conservative Party conference – concludes that the Government has made a grave miscalculation and cannot deliver on its promises. Rather than boosting funded childcare places, its policy is predicted to cut the number of subsidised nursery spots available to parents.

The sector is already in bad a way. Latest figures from Ofsted show that more than 650 nurseries closed in England in a single year.

Staff shortages are a big part of the problem. Nesta says its research shows there are not enough trained early-years staff to meet the demand from the extension of free childcare.

The second, linked, issue is the underfunding of existing government-subsidised free places. Nurseries, unable to recruit staff and already under pressure to pay them more, cannot afford to take the extra hit and are withdrawing subsidised provision altogether.

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