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At least 155,000 young people will be left without a suitable post-16 course from 2026 as a result of the government’s plan to axe most BTECs, new analysis suggests.

Experts predict a sharp drop in the number of applied general qualifications, coupled with slow growth in the number of students taking their replacement T-levels will lead to one in eight sixth formers “falling through the gap”.

First-of-their-kind projections to measure the scale of the impact of ministers’ controversial level 3 reforms have been released today by the Protect Student Choice campaign, in the absence of any official modelling from government.

In a scathing report, the campaign also accused ministers of “playing fast and loose” with data by using it in a “partial and misleading” way to justify their plans.

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