If the robots are really on the march to take our jobs, then it’s possible they have been delayed and are running a bit late. Prior to the pandemic, endless reports about the global threat of robotics, automation and AI were reaching fever pitch. Our report, Skills for Jobs that Don’t Yet Exist, was one of them and warned about the risks of a generation studying and training for jobs that will be replaced by technology. One, now famous, academic report from 2013 estimated that half of all jobs would be lost to automation by 2030. PWC placed this at about 30% in the UK by the early 2030s.
Technology is increasingly pervasive in the workplace, and the arrival of ChatGPT, and other generative artificial intelligence models have sparked another wave of anxiety about the dangers, but the extent to which automation and AI will replace jobs has been, so far at least, significantly overestimated. New studies, from McKinsey, PWC, the World Economic Forum and the LSE have shown that the net job loss from technological deployment is about 1%. Automation in factories and warehouses has increased but not at the scale anticipated. The UK has a lower robot density than other developed countries and manufacturing in the UK is now at risk of being less competitive unless it invests in automation. We were meant to be living in a world of driverless cars, instead we have a severe shortfall in HGV drivers. With increasing labour market shortages and an ageing workforce, it seems the robots cannot come quick enough.
Yet we should not be complacent about the challenges that we face in providing skills for the future. It may be difficult to predict which jobs will be replaced by technology and when exactly this will happen, but one thing is certain: The future of work is changing and having a productive role will depend on higher skills. Professor Leslie Willcocks, Emeritus Professor of Work, Technology and Globalisation at the LSE argues that ‘Skill Shifts’ are likely to be a bigger issue than job losses. Over the next 10-20 years, low-skilled work will go from 44% of the global workforce to around 32%.
