For regular Wonkhe readers, the phrase Journey to a Million won’t be a new one – it’s been a consistent drumbeat from me and my UCAS colleagues for more than twelve months.
This week, UCAS publishes the forecasts driving the headline for the first time, in partnership with Knight Frank and Unite Students.
As the UK’s admissions body for entry to higher education, UCAS has unique insight and understanding of patterns in progression. That’s why we’ve been able to combine third party population data from the Office of National Statistics and World Bank with demographic data and projected application rates to create applicant forecasts.
This is a tried and tested method – our forecasts have borne out to within ten per cent of their real number over the past five years (notwithstanding the small matter of a global pandemic). They also align with those shared by the Office for Students in England and HolonIQ, which has modelled more than eight million global enrolments by 2030.
