Progress in widening access has led to a record number of UK 18-year-olds from the most disadvantaged backgrounds (POLAR4 quintile 1) being accepted into university – a total of 31,890 students last year.
As part of its forecasts for up to a million higher education (HE) applicants by the end of the decade, UCAS is today highlighting how the sector can capitalise on this growing demand to ensure that UK HE remains accessible to the most disadvantaged students.
New UCAS research shows the application gap between the most and least advantaged applying to university or college is forecast to narrow. The application rate for the most disadvantaged students could reach 35%, up from 29.4% in 2022, while their most advantaged peers (POLAR4 Quintile 5) could increase to 65%, up from 60.1% in 2022.
Yet the analysis does also show that increased demand and competition for places could see more of the most disadvantaged students receiving no offers – 8.6% in 2030 compared to 2.3% in 2022. Today, one in 16 of the most disadvantaged students get just one offer but in 2030 this could increase to one in six, with the proportion receiving three or more offers reducing.
