It would be easy to think that this year is a normal Confirmation and Clearing period. Exams are underway and arrangements are largely similar to what they were prior to the disruption of Covid-19. However, the majority of students are sitting formal exams for the first time, after their GCSE exams were cancelled due to the pandemic. Not only that but we also have a range of external factors influencing this complex cycle, including geopolitics, the economy and job market, and cost of living.
This, against a significant growth in demand for higher education (HE) places in previous cycles, has meant that the January deadline showed a small decline in applicant numbers. Yet we are still seeing a strong commitment among young people to go to university or college, with new UCAS data showing the second highest number of UK 18-year-old applicants on record – 319,570 compared to the record high of 326,190 in 2022 but significantly higher than 275,520 in 2019.
It is well understood that demand and capacity impacts on offer making. We saw offer rates decline over the course of the pandemic (2020-2022), driven by accelerated demand for places coupled with more cautious offer making as universities sought to rebalance their numbers. This year, we have seen an uplift in offer rates across all provider groups following that period of decline, with new UCAS figures showing 76.2% of UK 18-year-olds are holding an offer compared to 73.9% in 2022 – although this does remain lower than pre-pandemic offer rates, 79.3% in 2019.
After periods of significant expansion, the decline in offer rates during the pandemic was most noticeable at higher tariff institutions. Breaking this year’s figures down even further, we can see that higher tariff institutions are making more offers once again this year. We are now seeing a move towards previous offer-making dynamics, with the UK 18-year-old offer rate at higher tariff institutions at 65.6% – compared to 61.3% in 2022 and 73.3% in 2019. For medium tariff institutions, the offer rate is 81.8%, compared with 80.3% last year and 83.1% in 2019, while for lower tariffs the offer rate is 85.5% versus 84.5% in 2022 and 83.7% in 2019.
