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The future of the UK university sector sits on a “knife edge” ahead of an A-level results day that could deliver another fall in entry rates, it has been warned.

Following the inflated grades of the last few years, the 2023 results are expected to return to pre-pandemic levels for what experts have called the “unluckiest generation of all”.

Last year there was a drop in the 18-year-old entry rate, which was not driven by a fall in demand but by a collapse in the chances of applicants getting the place they wanted, according to Mark Corver, co-founder of the dataHE consultancy and a former director of analysis and research at Ucas.

“The strategic worry for the sector this year will be what this entry rate does next,” he said.

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