The summer recruitment round is volatile in 2023, and intake levels hard to predict. Even now, after exam results have been announced, many institutions do not have a completely clear view of the shape of their incoming cohort for the approaching academic year. This is perhaps the most uncertain cycle since full cost fees were introduced in 2012. Why?
a) In 2020, the long demographic decline in 18-year olds ended. Between 2020 and 2030, the UK population will expand by 27 per cent. This growth will include more than a million extra 18-year olds. On current admission trends, this would mean an increase of 40,000 students in England by 2025 (and a fall of around 18,000 students in Scotland). However, these rising numbers are not being reflected in the volume of applicants: in 2022/23, there was no increase in home students and UK student intake is lower now than it was in 2020. Even on a five-year trend, home undergraduate growth is not in line with those earlier expectations.
UK undergraduate applicant numbers were down significantly for a big chunk of the post-1992 sector. Many of these institutions are pinning their hopes on having a good Clearing to meet their targets. Some shortfalls in home student undergraduate numbers are being masked by substantial increases in undergraduates from overseas.
