New research shows the extent to which Labour’s hopes of achieving power depends on overcoming recent divisions between school-leavers and graduates.
In a paper published today by the Social Market Foundation (a cross-party think tank), leading political scientist Professor Rob Ford presents new analysis of Britain’s education divide and what it means for the coming general election. It shows that education is now one of the strongest predictors of vote choice and political values.
The divide is relatively recent, Prof Ford shows, having opened up since the 2016 Brexit referendum. In 2014, graduates and school-leavers were as likely to vote for Labour or Conservatives. However, Labour now does much better with university graduates and the Conservatives’ base has shifted towards those with GCSE qualifications or less.
This poses electoral challenges for all major parties. For the Conservatives to retain power, they can scarcely afford to lose seats in the ‘red wall’ where school leavers are dominant but declining in numbers, whilst also having to stem losses in ‘blue wall’ seats where graduates who now shun the party are the largest group. By contrast, for Labour to secure a Commons majority, they must gain at least 120 seats – and will have to expand their coalition to include more school leavers, who are overrepresented in the constituencies Labour has lost to the Conservatives since 2015 and needs to win back.
