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The government’s announcement of a review of the graduate route, which allows overseas students to work for two years post-graduation (three for PhDs), has sent tremors through a fragile university system. It is key to the UK’s competitiveness in the market for international students.

International student recruitment is already sharply down for the coming year, even before the impact is felt of last May’s announcement of higher visa fees and immigration health surcharge and the removal of the right of masters students to bring dependants to the UK.

Any move now to axe or make the graduate route less attractive would risk tipping many universities into deficit, reduce the country’s soft power and hit an export sector that contributes more than £41bn a year to the economy.

Since July 2021, the graduate route has filled a gap left by the abolition of post-study work visas in 2011. During the two years, students cannot claim benefits. Nor does time on the route count towards settlement. Students can switch to an alternative skilled worker visa and stay for a further five years, provided they have an eligible job with a Home Office-approved employer.

The Migration Advisory Committee, the body charged with the review of the graduate route, this week warned that a post-study work regime was starting to resemble a pre-work study regime.

The reality, however, is that the post-study work offer is table stakes for the UK’s ability to attract globally mobile students at a time of intense competition from the US, Canada, Australia and other, non-anglophone markets. Canada’s system of postgraduate work permits, for example, is tied to length of study, ranging from eight months to three years. Crucially, it can also lead to permanent residence.

The UK government’s plan to raise the salary threshold for the skilled worker visa from £26,200 to £38,700 will fundamentally undermine the appeal of the graduate route. Employers will be even more cautious about hiring students on short visas. And for those at the start of their careers, especially in the regions and in sectors such as the creative industries, the salary will be beyond reach.

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