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I was delivering training to teaching staff this week about the perils and pitfalls of predicted grades. When I gave a statistic about the number of our students that were placed at first or insurance choice university despite missing grades, a colleague thoughtfully asked, ‘but are they happy and succeeding there?’

This is a question I spend a lot of time on with my students – ‘where will you be happy and “fit”?’ With drop-out rates at the highest recorded level and only 16% of students saying university was exactly what they expected, how do we ensure that students make the very best decisions when choosing their university and course?

In the UCAS last cycle, Joe* arrived at my office door for what was becoming an almost daily chat about this decision. He was a superb student of Economics, was predicted three A grades at A Level and had gained five offers for a degree in Accounting and Finance. He had his heart set on going to Lancaster University for which he had an offer of BBB. We had discussed the ways in which this really suited him as an individual – the course, the campus, the community, the location, and much more besides.

But then he received an offer from the University of Birmingham.

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