Miners would famously take a canary below ground with them as a form of early warning signal. What would the equivalent indicator look like in higher education, where several commentators are concerned about the potential impact of recent changes to immigration policy in the UK? Various challenges, such as post-study work rights and the ability to bring dependents with you, sit alongside cost and academic reputation in the minds of applicants considering the benefits of studying in another country. The UK remains a popular destination for international students: they now contribute both huge cultural diversity and the small matter of £42bn to our economy. Will recent changes deter international students from studying here and, if so, what might the consequences be?
Whilst UK traditions dictate an academic year which starts in the autumn, many universities now offer postgraduate degrees with start dates in January for international students. Since one-in-three international students in the UK studies in a business school, these so-called January start programmes offer early insights into the impact of new immigration arrangements. The Chartered Association of Business Schools has surveyed 50 universities to review their outcome, and the results are striking.
We found that 75% of respondents experienced significantly or slightly lower enrolments of non-EU students in January 2024 compared to January 2023. These findings are even more troubling when you consider PWC’s 2024 report on financial sustainability in the higher education sector, which suggested a 20% decline in international student recruitment would see up to 80% of universities being in deficit in the academic year 2024/25.
