Based on last week’s Home Office statistics, we are looking at some fundamental shifts in international recruitment (and, indeed international enrolment) patterns.
Jim’s piece on the data release goes over what is happening in more detail – fundamentally shifts in international currency exchange rates, and a perception that our government’s hostility to immigration in all formers will have an impact on study and post-graduation work visas, has made for some painful looking shift in who is actually turning up to study and pay fees.
What this means for a bunch of already-struggling higher education institutions is less easy to say – so I thought I’d have a go at modelling it.
Here I’m using HESA Student and HESA Finance data for 2021-22 – incredible as it may seem that is the latest available data on both provider finances and student numbers. The Office for Students do have the finance data (see the write up from the Public Accounts Committee for Susan Lapworth’s hot take on that – spoilers: it’s not looking good) and we’ll get that at the usual time. On student numbers, we literally do not know how many students are in UK HE at the moment and we probably never will know for sure for last year – the glory of Data Futures.
