More than children than ever won't get a place at their first choice of secondary school, education experts fear.
Families will find out on Wednesday whether their children have secured a place at their favoured school.
A record number have applied for places as a spike in the birth rate 11 years ago means that there are 640,000 children looking to start year seven this September.
Professor Alan Smithers, director of the Centre for Education and Employment Research, said the success rate could fall below 80 per cent for the first time.
The proportion of pupils getting into their first choice dropped from 85.2 per cent in 2014 to 83.3 per cent last year, having reached a historic low of 80.9 per cent in 2019.
