Tens of thousands of A-level students face disappointment on results day next week, amid warnings that nearly 100,000 fewer As and A*s could be awarded as the government seeks to return grades to pre-pandemic levels.
Up to 50,000 candidates this summer are likely to miss out on the top grades they might have expected last year, according to one estimate, throwing applications for the most competitive universities into doubt.
The sharp drop in grades is in line with government plans to return A-level results in England to 2019 levels this summer, after the Covid pandemic led to an increase in top grades in 2020 and 2021, when results were based on teacher assessments instead of exams.
To get back to 2019 levels, however, the percentage of A*s will have to fall from 14.6% last year to 7.8%, meaning 59,000 fewer A*s and 36,000 fewer As, according to the Centre for Education and Employment Research (CEER) at the University of Buckingham.
Research by the CEER said: “Assuming a reduction in two subjects per person, this would mean about 30,000 students not getting the A* grades they could have expected last year, and nearly 50,000 not getting the A*/A grade.”
