Don’t forget, today’s results come after several years of disruption to summer exams and various modifications to grading practices.
In 2020 and 2021, no GCSE examinations took place, and they were instead replaced by centre and teacher assessed grades. This resulted in a noticeable shift in grades between 2019 and 2021. The proportion of entries being awarded a grade 4 or above increased from around 70 per cent to 79 per cent.
In September 2021, Ofqual confirmed they would pursue a policy of returning to the 2019 distribution over multiple years. Grades in 2022 were intended to be at a midpoint of those in 2019 and 2021. Whilst the distribution of grades shifted, they did not quite move all the way back to the intended midpoint, 75.3 per cent of entries were awarded a grade 4 or above.
Subsequently in September 2022, Ofqual confirmed its intentions to return to the 2019 grade distribution in 2023, albeit with a “soft landing”. This means that we expect results to be lower this year than last year, and we know roughly how much lower.
