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Falling pupil rolls across England leave “ample space” for any youngsters forced out of private schools by Labour’s plan to charge them VAT and business rates, Bridget Phillipson claimed this week.

But senior Conservative MPs have questioned whether state schools could cope with an exodus of pupils from the private school sector. So who is right?

Critics of the policy have warned it could lead to as many as 90,000 private school pupils joining the state sector. The Institute for Fiscal studies estimates a smaller move of up to 41,000 pupils.

Analysis of pupil number projections by Schools Week shows the number of pupils in state primary and secondary schools is expected to fall by 46,000 in 2024 alone.

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