Teacher strikes and concerns about the safety of school buildings have put school spending at the forefront of public debate. In this short piece, we update our analysis of school spending per pupil in England, and likely future trends given the latest economic forecasts and pay offers.
Based on standard measures of inflation typically used in analysis of public spending, school spending per pupil is currently on course to be back above 2010 levels by 2024, with increases over this parliament more than enough to reverse the cuts seen up to 2019. However, we see a very different picture when we analyse the actual costs schools are likely to face, with school funding only increasing by just about enough to keep pace with school costs. In the final section of this comment, we consider the implications of this disconnect.
Following a substantial rise over the 2000s, total school spending per pupil fell by 8.5% in real terms in England between 2009–10 and 2019–20. This only includes day-to-day or current school spending per pupil, with larger cuts in school capital spending. This fall in school spending per pupil represents the largest and most sustained cut in school spending per pupil in England in at least 40 years, and probably a lot longer.
