This annual release provides national projections for the number of pupils in schools in England by type of school and age.
These statistics are usually calculated based on ONS population estimates and projections, information on birth registrations in England and data derived from the school census.
However, due to delays in their publication the ONS population estimates and projections are not yet available. Therefore for this 2023 publication alternative data sources have been used and projections reflect the best data available at the time:
- Population estimates have been replaced, from 2012 onwards, by estimates from ONS’s dynamic population model (DPM) which take account of the results of the 2021 census.
- The projections used are taken from the Greater London Authorities (GLA) population projections published in January 2023.
ONS monthly births data up to and including June 2022 and School Census data up to and including January 2023 have been used as normal.
All projections are subject to uncertainty as they depend on the information available at any given moment in time and cannot allow for future changes in demographic behaviour. However, given the change in source data, these projections should be used with more caution than usual. For more information please see the methodology document.
The data sources for the projections will be reviewed as ONS provide further updates.
