On Tuesday 5th December, the latest results from the OECD’s PISA study will be released. For those who don’t know, PISA is an international test of 15-year-olds across the world, with the results widely used to compare educational standards across countries and over time.
Here are some things I will be looking out for when the results get released – along with some other nerdy details that I think its worth keeping in mind.
There have been some positive signs recently in England’s PISA scores. There is some evidence of an upward trend in reading performance over time, increasing by 10 points between 2006 and 2018. Maths scores also ticked up by 11 points in 2018, though after a long period at the same level.
But, if anything is REALLY going to really shake PISA scores, its COVID.
My prediction is that we will see PISA maths scores in England fall back. This is partly based on what we have seen in NRT mathematics scores since COVID which – like PISA – tests Year 11 students. But its also because England’s 11 point uptick in maths scores in 2018 maths wasn’t part of a longer-term trend, which always makes me wonder a bit nervous it could have been partly driven by statistical noise.
