What main drivers of change are likely to impact upon the medium to long-term future of mainstream independent schools?

When putting together my workshop for this year’s ASCL Annual Conference, envisaging what the sector might look like in a decade’s time, I quickly realised that it was critical to devote the first part of the presentation to the factors or events which were likely to influence the shape of the sector over this time period, ie what would be the main drivers of change.