The Department for Education (DfE) is currently considering what proposals to make to the independent teacher pay review body for September 2023.
DfE will have one eye on negotiating with unions in the face of strike action, while also considering the Treasury’s willingness to support a pay offer with the necessary cash.
Another key focus will be the potential impact the pay award could have on teacher recruitment and retention. Teacher supply is in a difficult state, with last year’s recruitment for primary training courses and 13 out of 17 secondary subjects failing to reach their respective targets. This year’s recruitment numbers are so far only a little bit better. The research evidence is important for understanding what impact different pay awards might have on teacher recruitment and retention, and for understanding the effectiveness of other policy tools at the government’s disposal to address teacher supply issues.
DfE‘s evidence review on the impact of pay increases on teacher retention concludes that there is good evidence higher teacher pay is associated with higher retention. However, the economic research that this finding is based on is clear that it is not the absolute pay increase that matters but how that pay increase compares to what economists call the ‘outside option’. In other words, if pay for a job a teacher might take up if they left is rising at the same rate as their pay as a teacher, then it is likely to have little bearing over their decision about whether to leave or stay.
