Steve Besley's Education Eye: week ending 20 October 2023

What's happened this week?

Important stories across the board:

Half term looms for many, with lots still going on and the usual data dump from government ahead of such a break.

In terms of headline stories for the week, school funding, the state of public finances, and the prospect of digital exams, have been among the big talking points.

On school funding, the fallout from that revelation of an ‘accounting’ error for the 2024/5 school budgets has continued. 

The Opposition triggered an Urgent Question in parliament at the start of the week, with Labour’s shadow education secretary Bridget Phillipson claiming “We all know that mistakes happen, but this is not a one-off”. It made for an uncomfortable debate for schools minister Nick Gibb, with calls for his resignation at one point. The full debate can be read here.

A day earlier, Nick Gibb had attempted to allay fears in a Statement to MPs. “Schools have not yet received their 2024-25 funding”, he argued, “and so the correction of this error does not mean adjusting any funding that schools have already received". Unions were not impressed. ASCL’s Geoff Barton labelled it “a very disappointing response”. Schools will now be waiting anxiously for confirmation of the grant funding in December.

Next, and still on the money, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IfS) with its partner CiTi published their assessment this week of the UK public finances, ahead of next month’s Autumn Statement. Their 'Green Budget' as its regularly known, didn’t make for happy reading. It reinforced IfS’s belief that 'there’s no room for unfunded tax cuts or spending increases this year or next' and that in their headline quote 'we’re in a horrible fiscal bind'. 

In summary, debt interest is too high (£30bn above standard levels), spending pressures in health and elsewhere are ‘huge’, and an annual 1% a year increase in spending on public services from next year won’t cut it. As the report concludes, neither the current Chancellor, nor the post-election Chancellor has much room for manoeuvre. We’ll see when the Autumn Statement is delivered in a month’s time. 

In other political news, the Education Secretary explained the government’s proposed post-16 reforms in a Statement to the House of Commons; the Education Committee held a further session on Ofsted inspections in schools; and the government issued what the Early Years Alliance called ‘a disheartening’ response to the Committee’s report into childcare and the early years.

As for schools this week, a big news item has been AQA’s announcement of plans to move towards digital exams. 'We intend to roll out digital exams over a period of years, learning along the way and progressing steadily', the board reported. A sensible approach perhaps, given the comment from assessment guru Daisy Christodoulou. “It's not as simple as just pasting a paper assessment on screen” she tweeted. Either way, details on the story can be seen below.

In other news for schools, the government added 43 schools to its list of schools affected by crumbly concrete in its battery of data releases this week. Other releases covered figures on this summer’s GCSE performance, school absences and intriguingly projections on pupil numbers for the next five years. In a word, nursery and primary pupil numbers peaked in 2019 while secondary and special school pupil numbers are set to peak in 2024/5.

For FE, the latest ‘Love our Colleges’ campaign rounded off in style this week with a celebration in Westminster. The government provided the final listing of qualifications that overlap with wave 3 T levels and which will have their funding removed from August 2025. And UCAS launched its Hub, bringing together information on apprenticeship options and degree courses in the same space.

As for HE, HEPI has been continuing its series looking at the landmark Robbins Report sixty years on; Wonkhe reported on its session with Kortext on how universities are using technology in teaching and learning; the Office for Students launched a new Hub to support student mental health; and HEPI published the latest Social Mobility Index for English universities.  

Finally, with MPs back, thoughts have been turning to what should be in the King’s Speech, due in a few weeks’ time. The think tank Policy Exchange listed 14 Bills it thought should be included, including two concerning education. Details below

Links to most of these stories below, but first some details behind two of the big stories this week.  

• Digital exams 

The transition to digital exams moved up a gear this week with AQA’s announcement that from summer 2026, and subject to regulatory approval, 'the reading and listening components of GCSE Italian and Polish will go digital'. They will be traditional exam papers, just on screen, the exam board hastened to add. 

Evolution not revolution is how the board has described its approach, with this announcement initiating what it called, 'a conversation with teachers, leaders and exams officers across the country about how they want to see these changes made'. The aim is to have a digital component in a major subject by 2030.

The board, which, like many others, has put a lot of effort into preparing the ground for digitalisation, believes that ‘the time is now right’ to begin the move towards digital exams. In an accompanying paper it goes through some of the benefits of such a move. Digital exams prepare young people for a digital world, they develop digital skills, they’re more inclusive, and more environmentally sustainable, they argue. Longer-term, they can reduce teacher workloads, increase resilience and be tailored more to the subject and the student.

There are of course risks, as the board acknowledges. It points to costs, equity and concerns about a digital divide, and the need for a sensible timescale for implementation, as being three notable ones. 

The board intends to listen to and learn from teachers and other professionals, let alone other countries, and will provide more detail from its findings next year.

'Moving to digital exams is the next step in the evolution of our education system', it argued. As Professor Coe summed it up for the Radio 4 Today programme, "an inevitable step but still tricky". 

• The King’s Speech 2023

The King’s Speech is due to take place on Tuesday 07 November. It’s the next big moment in the parliamentary calendar, setting out the government’s legislative programme ahead of a likely general election. What’s likely to be in it of interest to education?

There were three education related Bills – or perhaps four if you include the Online Safety Bill – in the last such speech, the late Queen’s Speech in May 2022. Of those three, one Bill, the Schools Bill, was subsequently dropped. The other two, both concerning HE, were passed, becoming the 2023 Lifelong Learning Act and the 2023 HE (Freedom of Speech Act) respectively.

According to the House of Commons Library Service, a number of Bills will be carried over into this final year, including on Data Protection and Digital Markets. Some, such as the Draft Mental Health Bill, may re-appear, while new ones, such as the recently proposed raising the age of sale for tobacco products, may be announced.

Other bodies have been putting forward their own ideas for what should be in the Speech. 

The Policy Exchange think tank, for example, this week set out a list of 14 Bills, which it felt should be included – covering housing, digital health, social care, and electoral reform (subjecting lowering the age to 16 to a referendum.) 

The list also included two of interest to education. One, an Equality Act (Reform) Bill to tackle what it called ‘radical gender ideology’, by giving parents the right to see what’s being taught in this regard, and, if necessary, resort to legal action to stop it. And second, an HE and Skills Bill, capping the number going to university each year and diverting the money to support employer training through a Skills Tax Credit system. The Bill, they argue, would ‘rebalance investment between HE and FE’ and ‘restore government control over the number of university places funded each year’. Wonkhe described it as ’a Bill to shrink the sector’. 

The top headlines of the week:

• ‘DfE rejects union funding calls over £370m mistake’ (Monday).
• ‘Digital exams to be introduced in years – AQA’ (Tuesday).
• ‘UCAS launches new apprenticeship service’ (Wednesday).
• ‘Cuts could reduce education in England to ‘bare bones,’ headteachers say’ (Thursday).
• ‘Number of schools with crumbling concrete rises by 25%’ (Friday).

 General:

• AI Summit.The government released the programme for Day 1 of its forthcoming global Safety Summit on AI which will be opened by the Secretary of Sate and include a range of roundtable discussions looking at various forms of risk and types of response needed. 
• Green Budget. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IfS) and CiTi published their regular assessment of UK finances ahead of next month’s Autumn Statement concluding that ‘with low growth and high debt interest payments,’ there was little room for manoeuvre either for the current or even the next Chancellor.
• Infrastructure. The National Infrastructure Commission published its latest major five-yearly review of what’s needed over the coming years to transform our energy, transport and other infrastructure features calling for a £30bn pa increase in public investment to 2040 to support among other things, upgrades to public transport, water supply and heat pumps.
• Childcare. The Education Committee published the government’s response to its earlier report on childcare and early years, showing the government had accepted four of its recommendations, such as allowing childminders to work together in settings outside their home, and partially accepted eleven but had failed to respond to issues on funding and the scrapping of business rates for childcare settings.
• Good managers. The Chartered Management Institute reported on its survey with YouGov into ‘good’ managers and the difference they can make to organisations and people’s jobs, pointing to the fact that from its survey, 82% of managers had become managers by accident, calling as a result for formal training and support for future managers.
• Wage packets. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported annual growth of 7.8% (6.8% in the public sector) in regular pay in Great Britain for the period June – August 2023, ‘one of the highest growth rates since records began in 2001’ but amounting to 1.1% once inflation had been taken into account.
• Our Asks. The Child Poverty Action Group called for an increase in child benefit, universal free school meals across England, and a second earner work allowances for households claiming Universal Credit, among its ‘asks’ of the Treasury ahead of next month’s Autumn Statement. 

FE/Skills:

• Apprenticeship info. UCAS pointed to growing interest in apprenticeships among young people as it launched its new ‘Hub’ service bringing together information on both apprenticeships and degree courses for applicants.
• Apprenticeships. Former ministers Lords Knight and Willetts set out a 5-point plan to help grow and sustain engineering and technology apprenticeships for young people calling among other things for better support for young people, long-term funding and a re-balancing of routes in the secondary curriculum.
• T levels. The government published the final list of some 90+ L3 qualifications that overlap with T levels, and which will have their funding removed in August 2025, along with an accompanying Equalities Impact Assessment.
• Digital transition. The Manufacturers’ Organisation Make UK published a guide for manufacturers looking to invest in digital technology setting out a five-step process that should be taken into account including setting out the vision, exploring what’s around, securing the transition, implementing what’s required, and finally continuing to optimise.

HE:

• Mental health. The office for Students (OfS) published a new briefing on the mental health needs of students indicating that female, disadvantaged and multi-ethnic students were often more likely to report such conditions as it launched a new digital Hub aimed at helping universities and colleges meet student needs better. 
• Apprenticeship options. UCAS launched its new service bringing together in one place details on both apprenticeships and degree course options with applicants able to apply in 2024 through the UCAS Hub for places on either.
• Social mobility. The HE Policy Institute (HEPI) published the latest Social Mobility Index which measures how much English universities have improved students’ social mobility and is compiled by South Bank University and which saw three former Advanced Tech Colleges, in Bradford, Aston and City University, top the list.
• Russell Group asks.The Russell Group submitted its thoughts to the Treasury ahead of the forthcoming Autumn Statement calling for more help around R/D including with partners such as Germany and AUKUS and longer-term for strengthened security around research through a dedicated Fund.
• Digital experience. JISC reported on its survey into the digital experience of teaching staff in UKHE, conducted between last October and June this year and showing an increase in the number of staff using digital technologies but equally “a significant move back to on-campus teaching” amid poor levels of support and concerns about data.
• Cost-of-living. Wonkhe and Pearson reported on the recent specific survey on the effects of the cost-of-living on particular student groups, finding a growing correlation between those struggling financially and feeling excluded from the university experience, highlighting the importance of supportive learning environments to help mitigate the challenges they face.

Tweets and posts of note:

• “The six-year freeze in personal tax allowances and thresholds will mean 6.5 million more income taxpayers and 4.5 million more higher and additional rate taxpayers by 2027 than in 2020” | @TheIFS
• “Thinking about the next half term being nearly 8 weeks long, I may be inclined to ditch a week in the summer holiday to make it a two week half term” | @missdcox
• “27 years of on-the-ground research means I can state unequivocally that wind blowing about whips children up into a frenzy. Dry Autumn wind is the most effective for this if it includes leaves blowing about” | @HeyMissSmith
• “At a job interview I filled my glass of water until it overflowed a little. Nervous?" asked the interviewer. No. I always give 110%” | @Dadsaysjokes
• “Venn diagrams. You either love ‘em or you hate ‘em. Or you’re somewhere in the middle” | @MooseAllain

Memorable quotes

A selection of quotes that merit attention:

• “The temptation to turn ourselves into a shouting or recriminatory society must be resisted, or at least heavily mitigated whenever possible, especially in the digital sphere where civilised debate too often gives way to rancour and acrimony” – the King reflects on ‘our fractious times’ in a speech this week. 
• “The price of our high levels of indebtedness, failure to stimulate growth, and high borrowing costs is likely to be a protracted period of high taxes and tight spending” – the IfS reports on the public finances.
• “At least pay packets are getting heavier each month and not lighter, as has been the case for much of the last two years” – CIPD comment on the latest data on wages.
• “Carrying a cup and walking briskly is the simplest way to let fellow citizens know you are gainfully employed” – the Economist considers the plight of the modern office-worker. 
• “We still get the ‘is there a university in Bolton?’ question. Even after all this time, we still get that nonsense” – Bolton University’s V.C. on plans to change the institution’s name to the University of Greater Manchester.
• “I would also like to clarify that the recalculation of the NFF for 2024-25 does not affect the affordability of the 2023 teachers’ pay award” – Nick Gibb looks to sweeten the pill on the recent funding error for school budgets.
• “Meanwhile, students preparing to take A Level and T Level exams over the coming years should not doubt the value of their qualifications and be confident that high quality pathways remain open to them” – the Education Secretary on the government’s proposed exam reforms.
• “The current system of exams has been around for more than a century and we are doing a disservice to young people if we do not move our exam system to be more in line with the increasingly digital world young people are growing up in” – AQA sets out plans for a transition to digital exams.
• “Where there used to be a few pumpkins, paper ghosts and the odd string of cardboard bats, we now have freakishly disturbing monsters hanging everywhere” i columnist Allegra Chapman on the need to tone down some of the Halloween decorations. 

Other stories

• Consumer sentiment. Apparently 20% of UK consumers started shopping for Christmas this year by mid-September. It seems, as they say, that Christmas starts earlier each year although 30% of consumers surveyed reckon they’ll spend less this year because of the cost-of-living. Details can be found in PwC’s latest Consumer Sentiment Survey published this week. It’s an interesting dip into the mood of consumers as we embark on a key period for the High Street. On the plus side, consumer sentiment has picked up since the low point of last autumn but some groups, notably the 45 – 54-year-olds and the under 25-year-olds, are pretty downbeat. Under 25s for instance appear, unusually according to the report, to be cutting back on eating out, beauty products and fashion accessories. Shop early for Christmas, however, remains the key mantra. A link to the survey is here

• Snowplough parents. We’ve had helicopter parents, lawnmower parents, and free-range parents. Now apparently it's snowplough parents, parents intent on sweeping away from their children any hazards or problems that stand in their way. According to the TES which explained this new breed this week, increased pressure to help children achieve success is not only generating intensive parenting, but also changing parental relationships with schools. UK schools, for instance, are apparently reporting 'an increase in parents who desire constant communication and reassurance, not just around children’s attainment, but around their social interactions, too'. Another job for schools. A link to the article is here

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Steve Besley

Disclaimer: Education Eye is intended to help colleagues keep up to date with national developments in the education sector. Information is correct at the time of writing and is offered in good faith. No liability is accepted by Steve Besley or EdCentral for decisions made on the basis of any information provided.