Steve Besley's Education Eye: week ending 17 November 2023

Welcome to Education Eye, a regular update detailing the policies and stories happening in UK education, compiled by Steve Besley.

What's happened this week?

Important stories across the board:

Plenty of political activity this week including some ministerial changes.

Two involved education.

One was the departure of the longstanding Schools Minister Nick Gibb, a stalwart from the early Gove years. As one tweeter put it: “Until today, there were three guarantees in life, death, taxes, and Nick Gibb as Schools Minister”.

As an advocate of a more traditional approach to education, notably around reading, he’d had his critics, but a jump to fourth for the UK in this year’s PIRLS international reading league tables proved the point for many. As the Education Secretary put it: “Nick has worked with school leaders and teachers to transform millions of children’s lives for the better”.

Although he’s leaving because, as he explained, "a new opportunity to serve the country in a diplomatic role has arisen", he’s not giving up on education policy. "I’ll remain deeply involved', he promised. Former Education Secretary Damian Hinds, ‘a minister who gets on with things far too quietly’ according to one commentator, has been brought back to fill the gap.

The other was the science minister George Freeman, well-respected by many, not least for helping restore UK involvement in the Horizon Europe programme. "An awesome legacy", as the Universities UK CEO put it. He's been replaced by Andrew Griffith.

Elsewhere in Westminster this week, the Education Committee announced a new inquiry into financial education in schools and colleges and took further evidence on some of the problems around teacher recruitment and retention. “I think to be blunt it’s in quite a poor place in England at the moment”, IfS research fellow Luke Sibieta told the Committee. Interestingly, the growth of flexi-working in the private sector has made teaching appear less attractive.

In other general news this week, the ONS published further data on UK inflation and the labour market, cumulatively providing a challenging backdrop for the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement next week. 'The big picture remains of weak growth in the economy and real earnings, with employment historically high but wide gaps between groups and areas', according to the Learning and Work Institute.

And intergenerational gaps emerged as one of the themes of the week, with two important reports on the subject – one from the Resolution Foundation and the other from the Centre for Policy Studies think tank. ‘The divide between young and old is becoming Britain’s defining characteristic, not just politically but economically too', wrote Robert Colvile, co-author of the Centre for Policy Studies report.

For schools this week, union and parent bodies gave the Chancellor a further tug on the sleeve ahead of his Autumn Statement next week with the relaunch of the Schools Cuts website. 'An alarming 18,484 of schools (92%), both primary and secondary, will be unable to cope with cost increases in 2024/25 without making cuts to education provision', the site claimed, calling on the government to prioritise funding for education.

And in its latest survey report, the charity Education Support reported worrying levels of anxiety and stress among the education workforce. 'Our education workforce is unhappy and stressed at work', with senior leaders particularly at risk, it reported.

For FE, its been one of the big moments of the year, with the gathering of the ‘clans’ for the annual AoC Conference and Exhibition in Birmingham. Always a tremendous occasion, and as the AoC chief executive explained, with a real sense of vibrancy this year as the skills agenda gathers pace.

The skills minister came to praise and highlight his affection “As my officials will tell you, further education does not get forgotten on my watch”. While there were important speeches from the shadow skills minister, the FE commissioner, the president and chief executive respectively of the AoC and the departing Ofsted chief inspector, among others.

In HE, the newish Director of Regulation at the OfS (“I’ve been at the OfS around four months now”) addressed the GuildHE Conference this week and outlined current issues as she saw them. And the QAA published its latest paper in its series on quality in HE in England arguing that a collaborative approach across the UK 'is instrumental in ensuring that the UK remains an internationally attractive and respected destination for students'.

Finally, with Black Friday looming, the consultancy PwC has some interesting data ahead of this year’s bash.

It seems that with the cost-of-living and everything else, many are reining in their purchasing. 'Interest for the under-45s has dropped by between 15 and 20 percentage points'. For those that are looking to spend, and it appears to be mainly men, the average outlay this year is estimated at £242 per person, up from £228 last year.

Links to most of these stories below starting with the headlines.

The top headlines of the week:

‘Higher education sector in existential crisis as one in four universities make losses. ITV News’ (Monday).
‘MPs told why people don’t want to be teachers anymore as recruitment crisis hits crisis levels' (Tuesday).
‘Princess of Wales: Social skills as important as literacy and maths’ (Wednesday).
‘MPs launch inquiry into UK financial education’ (Thursday).
‘Treasury plans apprenticeship levy restrictions’ (Friday).

General:

Ministerial changes. The PM reshuffled his Cabinet and made a number of other ministerial appointments including for Schools and Science.
Back to Work. The government announced a Back to Work Plan ahead of next week’s Autumn Statement building on funding from the Spring Budget to outline a carrot and stick approach of extending the Restart scheme, developing individual placement and support and launching WorkWell as carrots but with stricter sanctions in some cases, ending access to additional benefits and stricter claims as sticks.
Labour market. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published the latest set of estimated labour market figures showing vacancies continuing to fall for the sixteenth month in a row, economic inactivity unchanged and wages continuing to rise, albeit at a slower rate than for previous quarters.
Labour market analysis. The Institute for Employment Studies (IES) published its assessment of the latest ONS labour market data, noting some evidence of the market continuing to cool and calling on the government in its Autumn Statement next week to do more to support the supply side.
The jobs market. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IfS) looked at the changing shape of the jobs market in UK with low-paid work now increasingly outsourced, graduate and high-end jobs concentrated in London and other big cities, employment among traditional middle range occupations falling, and graduates from poorer backgrounds unable to decamp to London tending to miss out.
The generation gap. The Centre for Social Justice examined the growing gap between young and old in a collection of essays ranging over housing, education and childcare, calling among other things for improving essential skills for children and reforming the student loan system.
More on the generation gap. The Resolution Foundation and partners published their latest Intergenerational Audit highlighting only ‘modest’ improvement in income by UK millennials with home ownership only just starting to pick up, limited progress in employment and graduate pay down.
APPG on Carers. The All-Party Parliamentary Group called in a new report for an urgent national strategy for young carers as it highlighted the challenges many face, including missing school time, losing out on employment, and waiting for support.
Financial education. The Education Committee announced a new inquiry into how best to strengthen financial education through primary, secondary and further education, calling for evidence submissions on such factors as where it should sit in the National Curriculum and what should be included in it.
Youth violence and vulnerability. The Youth Endowment Foundation published a second major survey report of young people’s (aged 13-17) experience of violence over the past year finding worrying numbers caught up in it in some form, albeit with variations by region and gender, with gangs and drugs seen as the main causes.
Cyber threats. The National Cyber Security Council issued its latest annual review warning of what it termed ‘an increasingly unpredictable threat landscape’ ranging from possible attacks on UK national infrastructure including transport, communications and the internet, to ‘malicious actors’ targeting high-profile email accounts.

More specifically ...

Schools:

School cuts. Education unions relaunched the ‘Education Cuts’ website ahead of next week’s Autumn Statement, using it to highlight the impact of government funding decisions on mainstream schools in England, arguing that many face real-term cuts from next April.
Teacher Wellbeing. The charity Education Support called for better support, training and investment in education professionals as it published its latest annual Index of teacher wellbeing showing a marked increase in teacher stress and anxiety over the past year.
Exams 2024. Ofqual invited views on government plans for formulae and equation sheets to be made available to support GCSE candidates in maths, physics and combined science exams next year for the final time, on the basis that they were the final cohort to experience two-years of disrupted education.
Annual Report. The Chartered College of Teaching published its Annual Report following its recent Annual General Meeting, pointing to an increase in paying members, high levels of member satisfaction, a long list of activities around teacher CPD, and a return to a small financial surplus.
Teacher recruitment. Teach First highlighted the success of its pilot relocation scheme, which provides financial support for trainees taking up places in disadvantaged communities, as it reported a big increase in its autumn intake of trainee teachers including those in disadvantaged areas..
SEND and early years. The Early Years Alliance reported on research showing early years providers facing ‘a tsunami of need’ from families with children with special educational needs and disabilities, in some cases having to turn them away for lack of trained staff, funding and provision.

FE/Skills:

2023 exam results. The government published provisional data on this year’s 16-18 results showing an average point score lower than the previous year as grading returned to pre-pandemic arrangements but with the attainment gap improved.
Minister’s address. Skills minister Rob Halfon addressed the AoC Conference where he widely praised the sector as ‘a key pillar of his ladder of opportunity’ and set out four challenges it faces including resourcing, T level rollout, responsiveness, and future skills provision.
Skills shortages. Edge published its latest Skills Bulletin with contributions from a range of organisations highlighting skills needs and shortages and the importance of helping young people develop the core skills needed to operate in a fast-moving market.
Apprenticeship TNA. The Education and Training Foundation invited apprenticeship providers to participate in the latest training needs analysis survey to help shape future training provision under the DfE funded Apprenticeship Workforce Development offer.

HE:

LLE. The government published further details on the Lifelong Learning Entitlement (LLE) which is due to become operative in 2025, promising as part of the next steps, consultation and legislation on funding and fee limits in the spring.
Graduate employment. Universities UK published a series of case studies, taken from universities careers services, showing how universities have used such approaches as work experience, student preparation and skillsets to help improve graduate employment rates.
Quality matters. The QAA published its latest briefing on the Future of Quality in England, looking at the lessons that could be learned from the evolved nations and calling for a more collaborative approach across the four nations.
Director’s address. Philippa Pickford, the Director of Regulation at the Office for Students addressed the GuildHE Conference where she outlined three key challenges as she saw them, covering the OfS’s current more active approach to regulating quality, institutional financial viability, and future working arrangements.
Call for evidence. The HE Commission launched a call for evidence from across the sector about current uses of blended learning and how courses have been digitalised post-pandemic, as part of an Inquiry looking to develop and share good practice around the concept.
HE in India. PIE News reported on the growth of higher education in India which according to the latest All India Survey on HE (AISHE) now claims over 1,110 universities, more than 43,000 colleges and nearly 11,300 standalone institutions and where government expenditure on tertiary education has increased as a proportion of GDP from 0.88% at the start of the century to 1.52% more recently.

Tweets and posts of note:

“@profbeckyallen tells @CommonsEd that @TeacherTapp asked senior leaders about the DfE’s workload reduction toolkit. A third hadn’t heard of it, a third hadn’t read it. And of the third that had read it, just over a third found it helpful #edselctte” | @FCDWhittaker
“A lot of students are turning to #ChatGPT n the absence of human contact at university. There’s an actual human resource gap forcing students to rely on #AI as a mentor and tutor. Great, buzzy and provocative session on #AI at #THEmena” | @Phil_Baty
“A student shouted at me today “you’re going to be sacked soon hopefully” so that’s something to look forward to. I’m already dreaming of all the free time and sleep” | @MissDaveyMFL
“November and December are the last embers of the year” | @MooseAllain
“So, the good news is I found my Keep Cup that I lost over a month ago. The bad news is it wasn't empty when I lost it” | @MBDscience

Memorable quotes

A selection of quotes that merit attention:

“I have hugely enjoyed my ten years as schools minister, helping to ensure that education policy is driven by the evidence and the most effective ways of teaching children” – Nick Gibb MP bows out as schools minister.
“With families and young people continuing to feel cost-of-living pressures, the case for equipping children of all backgrounds with the life skills and knowledge to help manage their money feels as strong and timely as ever” - the Education Committee announces a new inquiry into financial education in schools and colleges.
“Labour market cooling, but no respite for business” – the British Chambers of Commerce responds to the latest labour market figures from the ONS.
“Perhaps the group that have been most negatively affected by labour market trends in recent decades are people in economically deprived areas who have invested in higher education, but find that there are not enough graduate jobs locally, and are unable or unwilling to move to London” – the IfS reflects on the changing labour market.
“Trapped in a triangle of sadness” – a vice-chancellor’s perspective on university funding.
“I don’t hold a meeting, or comment on a ministerial submission without asking: “What about FE? What are we doing to help it thrive?” – the skills minister proclaims his affinity for FE.
White, working-class boys are some of the lowest achievers at school, with schools regularly drawing attention to family incomes and humiliating kids who don’t have the luxury of nannies, stables and a week in Courchevel” – The Sun takes up the case of under achieving white working-class kids.

Important numbers

Not-to-be-missed numbers of the week:

63%. The number of members of the new cabinet that attended a private school, according to the Sutton Trust.
4.6%. The inflation rate for the UK for October, the lowest for two years and largely due to lower energy prices according to figures from the ONS.
1.3%. The growth forecast for the EU for 2024, according to the latest report from the EU Commission.
7.7%. The growth in regular pay over the period July – September 2023, slightly down on previous quarters but still above price rises according to the ONS.
£29,500. The amount that a single person (£50,000 for a couple with two children) needs to earn to live on in 2023, up from £25,000 in 2022, according to analysis from Loughborough University Centre for Research in Social Policy.
1.9. The forecast ratio of workers per pensioner in 2072, down from 3.3 currently, according to the Centre for Policy Studies.
73%. The number of education staff reporting that they’re stressed, up 3% on last year according to evidence from the charity Education Support.
556,400. The number of approved access arrangements for this year’s academic exams, up 8.7% on the previous year according to Ofqual.
16%. The number of teenage children in England and Wales who have been the victims of violence in the last 12 months, according to the Youth Endowment Fund.
83,840. The number of looked after children as of March 2023, up 2% on last year according to latest government figures.
2,005. The number of reports of cyber-attacks received by the National Cyber Security Centre this year, an increase of 64% on last year according to the Centre’s latest annual review.
£639. The amount of money on average individuals lost to scammers between November 2022 and January 2023 incorporating the Black Friday period, according to the National Cyber Security Centre.

Everything else you need to know ...

What to look out for next week:

Education Committee evidence session on screen time and the impact on education and wellbeing (Tuesday 21 November).
The Chancellor presents the Autumn Statement (Wednesday 22 November).
Westminster Hall debate on the apprenticeship levy (Wednesday 22 November).
Schools and Academies Show (Wednesday 22 November).
Employment and Skills Summit online (Thursday 23 November).

Steve Besley

Disclaimer: Education Eye is intended to help colleagues keep up to date with national developments in the education sector. Information is correct at the time of writing and is offered in good faith. No liability is accepted by Steve Besley or EdCentral for decisions made on the basis of any information provided.