Steve Besley's Education Eye: week ending 08 December 2023

Welcome to Education Eye, a regular update detailing the policies and stories happening in UK education, compiled by Steve Besley.

What's happened this week?

Important stories across the board:

Some international test results for education, an important report on the UK economy, and a list of education issues for the future.

So what have we learned for education and skills from this week’s three big reports?

The international test results first, which came in the form of the latest (2022) PISA (Programme for International Student Assessment) report from the OECD.

Taken every three years – although delayed a year this time because of the pandemic – PISA attempts to capture the performance of 15-year-olds in maths, reading and science in countries across the world. According to the OECD, which runs the assessment exercise, nearly 700,000 15-year-olds from across 81 countries took part this time round, including 4,763 from England. The focus this year was on maths, and the outcome, as summarised by the OECD, was that PISA 2022 had seen 'an unprecedented drop in performance across the OECD. Compared to 2018, mean performance fell by 10 score points in reading and by almost 15 score points in maths'.

This drop in performance was notable across some countries more than others. East Asian countries, such as Singapore and China for instance, continued to top the tables, and England too managed to move up the rankings in all three subjects, rising in maths for instance from 18^th position to 12^th. ‘PISA cake’ as one commentator rather enthusiastically put it.

Unions urged ministers not to crow too loudly about the results. 'It is important that politicians and policy makers remain inquisitive about these results, rather than using them for political ends', the NAHT said. The education secretary made sure she thanked teachers, “these results are a testament to our incredible teachers”, but was quick to add also that a lot of it was also down to “the government’s unrelenting drive to raise school standards over the past 13 years”.

As to how far the pandemic had been a factor in the decline in results for some countries, it clearly hadn’t helped, but as Andreas Schleicher, the OECD’s Director for Education, reported, “educational trajectories were negative well before the pandemic hit”.

As to other issues in the report, these included the disadvantage gap, student ‘wellness', food insecurity, and the growing impact of technology. 'PISA shows that moderate use of digital devices in school is associated with higher performance, but this depends on the technology being used to support rather than distract from learning'.

For England, perhaps two other nuances stand out. First, as Sam Freedman pointed out, the rise in performance by immigrant children. “The UK is the 'only' country in Europe where second generation immigrants outperform non-immigrant students”. And second, raised by Andreas Schleicher and noted by Sam again, high levels of performance variation within rather than between schools.

These and other features will be debated for some, with the next set of PISA assessments due in 2025 and focusing on science, with a new assessment of foreign languages.

Next, that important economic report.

This was the Final Report from the Nuffield-funded 2030 Economy Inquiry, a major project into the UK economy, which has been run over the past three years by the Resolution Foundation with the Centre for Economic Performance.

It’s an impressive piece of work – even the Executive Summary runs to 20 pages. Sky’s Ed Conway summed it up succinctly as “an excellent primer on much of what's gone wrong with the UK economy. 300 pages and zillions of charts”.

Under the heading ‘Ending Stagnation’, the report lists ten reasons why the economy has got stuck, citing for example that we waste talent. 'Almost a third of young people in the UK are not undertaking any education by age 18 – compared to just one in five in France and Germany', and have high income inequality. It then goes on to list ten steps to ending stagnation, focusing on factors such as good work and ’recoupling everyone to rising prosperity’.

In the words of Torsten Bell, the chief executive of the Resolution Foundation, the report offers a new path for economic recovery, 'a new economic strategy built, not on nostalgia or wishful thinking, but our actual strengths'. It thereby provides an important context for young people, workers, and for education and skills policy in general in the future.

And talking of future education policy, this takes us on to the third report to note this week, in this case from the Education Policy Institute.

The report forms part of NESTA’s UK 2040 Options project, looking at future policy challenges in anything, from the economy, to health and education, that the country is likely to be facing in 2040. The Institute suggested eleven for education.

These included: closing the gap, falling roles and missing pupils: teacher recruitment: the financial sustainability of universities: and our performance against international comparators generally.

Many people might point to the impact of technology, changing professional work practices, skills preparation for young people, and updating adult skills as other big challenges –although in fairness, some of these are mentioned in summary. The full list can be found here

Briefly, other education-related news this week.

The Education Committee questioned the education secretary, who confirmed that consultation on the government’s proposed Advanced British Standard (ABS) and guidance on gender recognition would be out shortly.

The science secretary Michelle Donelan formally sealed the deal on the UK’s entry to the Horizon and Copernicus at a meeting in Brussels, opening the door to some £89bn of research and innovation funding over the next few years. “A colossal win for the UK’s science, research and business communities”, according to the minister. ‘A momentous day’ according to the head of Universities UK.

And in other general news, the government called for a review of the graduate visa route as part of its visa announcement this week, local councils raised financial worries – ‘seven in ten now unsure if they can balance their budget next year’ – and UNICEF raised the spectre of global child poverty in its latest Report Card on the matter.

In schools this week, the government added more schools and colleges to its list of institutions affected by RAAC, concerns were expressed about a drop in teacher training recruitment, exam board OCR announced the first fully digital GCSE, and Parentkind published the results of its major survey of parents. 'This survey is full of data that should make us all sit up and think again about the barriers preventing children from succeeding in education and how we support parents'.

For FE, the Education and Training Foundation launched a new strategy. 'At the heart of it is collaboration with the FE and skills sector to deliver a strong professional workforce, improved teaching and learning and a sector that champions inclusion'.

And the think tank EDSK examined alternative options for young people who don’t tread the traditional academic path – suggesting they have been poorly served, and calling, among other things, for redesigned Traineeship and Kickstart programmes.

In HE, away from the visa announcement and the Horizon sign-off, the MillionPlus group called for a new skills strategy, built around local, ‘modern’ universities, and UCAS published its End of Cycle report on 2023 applications, showing a drop in numbers. "What we are seeing”, according to Head of Policy at UCAS, Ben Jordon, in a useful summary on the Wonkhe site, “is a deceleration of demand towards normal growth, as opposed to a decline”.

Links to most of these stories below starting with the headlines.

The top headlines of the week:

‘Labour could abandon Rishi Sunak’s maths reforms to focus on primary school provision’ (Monday).
‘UK to review post-study work visa in drive to cut immigration’ (Tuesday).
‘More schools and colleges identified as having unsafe concrete’ (Wednesday).
‘Secondary ITT targets missed by half’ (Thursday).
‘Ban graduates from apprenticeships, says think tank’ (Friday).

General:

PM on the economy. The Prime Minister outlined his five long-term plans for economic growth, comprising reducing debt, cutting tax and rewarding hard work, building sustainable, domestic energy, backing British business, and delivering world-class education.
Ending stagnation. The Resolution Foundation, in conjunction with the Centre for Economic Performance, published the final report from their extensive inquiry into the state of the UK economy, describing it as stagnating with ten reasons why before going on to set out ten key steps for ending stagnation as part of an important new economic strategy for the country.
Starmer speech. Sir Keir Starmer spoke at the launch of the Resolution Foundation report where he acknowledged that a future Labour government would face difficult economic circumstances but offered three steps for economic growth including getting Britain building again, backing British business with reforms of tax and skills, and making work pay, within a framework of securonomics.
Visa changes. The government announced a number of changes to its entry and visa arrangements for foreign workers and students which included raising the minimum salary threshold for skilled worker visas apart from those in health and care, reviewing jobs on the list of shortage occupations, and calling for a review of the graduate visa route.
Financial risks. The Bank of England published its latest Financial Stability Report suggesting that things remain ‘challenging’ and that households remain ‘stretched’ but that debt is falling and the banking system remains resilient.
Economic forecast. The British Chambers of Commerce published its latest economic forecast pointing to ‘sluggish’ growth for at least the next three years with core inflation slowing and average earnings improving but the unemployment rate remaining high.
Council funding. The County Councils Network and Local Government Association both reported surveys showing that members were struggling financially with suggestions that they wouldn’t be able to meet statutory responsibilities in areas like social care in some cases next year.
Impact report. The CBI issued its impact report for 2023, listing ways in which it has delivered for business and had an impact on government policy, pointing as examples to its support for increasing childcare provision, for rejoining the Horizon EU research programme and for digital transformation.
Widening recruitment. The consultancy firm PwC announced new measures to support more people from lower socio-economic backgrounds joining and progressing in the company, proposing among other things to offer a salary advance scheme, increased monitoring and aligning work allocation to background skills.
Two-child limit. The End Child Poverty Coalition called for a scrapping of the policy that restricts benefits to just two children in a family as it published new data revealing a North-South divide with families in the North of England the hardest hit.
Child poverty. UNICEF published its latest Report Card on child poverty affecting OECD and EU countries, pointing to the fact that some 69m children live in families earning below the average national income and showing that some of the least well-off countries are managing to reduce child poverty while some of the richer countries are lagging behind.
Early Years. Global organisations and charities including UNICEF and LEGO called on President Lula da Silva, the incoming President of the G20 nations, to prioritise early years provision pointing to the fact that nearly a half of pre-primary children globally are not enrolled in any form of early education.
President’s medal. The British Academy awarded its prestigious President’s Medal this year to a podcast entitled ‘The Rest is History,’ which brings a range of sometimes complex historical topics to a wider audience, making it the first time the award has not gone to an individual.

More specifically ...

Schools:

RAAC. The government published its latest list of schools and colleges affected by unsafe (RAAC) concrete, adding a further 17 institutions to the overall list and indicating that at least three secondary schools are having to resort to a mix of face-to-face and remote learning.
Digital exams. The exam board OCR announced that following a successful pilot, students starting their GCSEs in 2025 will be able to take a fully digital GCSE in Computer Science, subject to regulatory approval by Ofqual, but with paper-based versions to remain where needed and with more subjects expected to follow in time.
ITT. The government published latest figures for initial teacher training for 2023/24 showing a notable drop in both undergraduate and postgraduate recruitment compared to the previous year.
Ofsted. Amanda Speilman, the chief inspector, issued a response to the Coroner’s verdict at the end of the hearing into the tragic death of Ruth Perry, offering heartfelt apologies for any distress caused by the inspection and outlining measures being taken to prevent future distressing incidents.
Parent Survey. Parentkind published the results of its major survey of parents conducted by YouGov in June this year, finding parents concerned about the costs of aspects of school life such as uniforms and trips, along with concerns about how best to support their children’s learning, their children’s mental health and their preparation for life generally.
Cyber Explorers. The science and technology secretary invited schools to participate in a new Cyber Explorers Cup challenge which gives pupils aged 11-14 a chance to take part in a range of cyber security challenges leading to prizes, trips, and opportunities to understand more about the cyber security industry.

FE/Skills:

New Strategy. The Education and Training Foundation announced a new strategy built around four core ‘goals,’ including improving teaching and learning across the FE and skills sector, driving professionalism, championing inclusion and supporting sector change.
T levels. The Institute for Apprenticeships and Technical Education (IfATE) invited bids from awarding organisations ‘to refresh and develop’ seven existing T levels including Education and Early Years, Digital Support Services and Onsite Construction.
The other 50%. The EDSK think tank examined the plight of young people who don’t follow the traditional academic route through to university, finding the ‘ladder of opportunity’ missing for many and calling in a new report for redesigned traineeship and apprenticeship programmes, employer training programmes targeted at 16–24-year-olds and an independent review into T levels.

HE:

Horizon. The government formally completed the UK sign-up to the EU Horizon and Copernicus programmes as it prepared to push UK research and innovation as part of the £80bn schemes, with a new comms programme and support for UK bodies looking to bid for the first time.
Visa review. Universities UK reassured international students that UK universities remained ‘an attractive destination’ and that the graduate route remains ‘part of the essential offer’ as it issued a response to government plans for a review of the graduate visa route.
UCAS report. UCAS published its End of Cycle data for 2023 showing ‘a year-on-year decline’ in applications and admissions including among international students but with overall numbers still up on the last pre-pandemic figures along with an increase in those with a disability and progress in access and participation.
Minister’s address. HE and Skills minister Rob Halfon outlined in an address to the Times Higher Conference, five challenges that he argued were facing HE in this decade and beyond, including HE reforms, HE disruptors such as the Dyson Institute, degree apprenticeships, the lifelong learning entitlement, and the latest industrial revolution.
Skills challenges. MillionPlus called on the government and policy makers to work more closely with modern universities which in many cases are closer to local skill needs and able to respond directly, as it published a new report proposing a revised skills strategy with multi-year funding for regional skills and jobs as a way of tackling skills shortages in England.
REF Update. Funding bodies issued a progress report on Research Excellence Framework (REF) developments ahead of a summary report next spring, confirming among other things that the next exercise will be extended to 2029 with the results published at the end of that year.
Kingston approach. Kingston University announced a new Future Skills scheme which will see all new first-year undergraduates from this year undertaking a ‘Future Skills’ module embracing nine attributes, including being enterprising, digital competency, and resilience as part of their degree course.
Digital Transformation. AdvanceHE invited applications for its fee paying, six-monthly Leading Digital Transformation Change Impact Programme (CHiP) designed to support higher ed organisations nurture a digital culture and manage digital change.
Low pay. The Unite union highlighted the financial plight of many of those working in higher education, indicating that the current 5% pay award was insufficient and that many families were struggling to survive, calling on the Employers Association to come up with a better offer.

Tweets and posts of note:

“The end of grade inflation, a trial with school uniforms and obligatory maths examinations are amongst the measures pledged by President Macron’s government to combat falling school standards in France | @EDSKthinktank
“The government has recruited just HALF of the secondary teachers needed this year, new data shows” | @FCDWhittaker
"I'm not a parent. I get knackered entertaining someone else's small kids for a few hours. So I can only imagine how knackered a full-time teacher gets doing that after teaching every day. My parents did it, others do it, but still dunno how, caffeine?? | @RogersHistory
“Unpopular opinion Having a WhatsApp group for work is invasive. That is what emails, teams or slack is for. I don’t mind work WhatsApp groups for social reasons like planning nights out but when WhatsApp becomes the main mode of work-related communication that is invasive!” | @MissFolorunsho.

Memorable quotes

A selection of quotes that merit attention:

“My approach is rooted in what I learned growing up, working in Mum’s pharmacy” – the PM on growing the economy.
“So I have said to every member of my Shadow Cabinet, when they are drawing up their plans for our manifesto. Think carefully - about how precious every pound is for the people we must serve” – Sir Keir Starmer on Labour’s approach to economic planning.
“The UK has great strengths, but is a decade and a half into a period of stagnation” – the Resolution Foundation calls for a new economic strategy for the UK.
“Last year, 40 per cent of the attacks addressed by the National Cyber Security Centre were against the public sector” – the Deputy PM addresses the issues of cyber security.
It is important that we now put to bed the suggestion that this visa will be scrapped” – Universities UK responds to government plans to review the graduate visa route.
“Now we’re ready to shoot out of the gate and make the most of the opportunities participation in Horizon offers” – the chief executive of Universities UK welcomes the formal accession of the UK into the EU’s Horizon programme.
““The CBI is needed more now than at almost any time in its history, and it will be a privilege to lead the organisation in the coming years" – Rupert Soames on being appointed the new CBI President.
“Working together we will continue to build a thriving future for the sector and its learners, their communities and society” –  incoming Education and Training Foundation Chair Sir Frank McLoughlin on the organisation’s new strategy.
“If I was secretary of state now, reform in the 16 to 18 space along the lines of the Advanced British Standard would not be a priority” – the shadow education secretary on where her priorities lay.
“45% of students reported feeling nervous or anxious if their phones were not near them, on average across OECD countries, and 65% reported being distracted by using digital devices in at least some maths lessons” – the OECD points the finger at mobile devices in its latest PISA report.
“We welcome this important step in moving from pen-and-paper exams towards the use of digital assessment” – ASCL welcomes OCR’s plan for a digitally assessed Computer Science GCSE.
“It is pretty embarrassing for the government that we are now almost at the end of the autumn term and it is still adding schools to this list” – the NAHT responds to the latest list of schools affected by RAAC.

Important numbers

Not-to-be-missed numbers of the week:

£38,700. The new salary threshold to qualify for a skilled worker visa, as announced by the government.
2.5%. The amount by which the UK population has grown since 2019 compared with a 1.7% GDP rise over the same period, according to the CEBR.
554,465. The number of students gaining a place in UKHE through UCAS this year, down from 563,175 last year according to latest data from UCAS.
492. The mean score achieved by pupils in England in the latest PISA maths assessment, notably higher than the OECD average score of 472, according to the Oxford Research Report on PISA 2022.
30%. The number of students globally reporting that they get distracted by digital devices, according to the PISA 2022 Report.
231. The number of schools with confirmed RAAC, according to the latest data from the government.
26,955. The number of new entrants to initial teacher training for 2023/24, down 5% on the previous year according to latest government figures.
7%. The overall absence for pupils in schools in England for w/commencing 20 November, according to latest government figures.
13.44 a month. The amount that some parents contribute on average to support their child’s school fund, according to a survey from Parentkind.
56%. The number of parents with primary school-age children likely to resort to Buy Now Pay Later schemes to pay for festive spending, according to Citizen’s Advice.
3,320. The number of nurseries and under-five childminders that have shut down in the last year, according to Ofsted data reported in The Independent.

Everything else you need to know ...

What to look out for next week:

Education Questions in the Commons (Monday 11 December).
Education Committee evidence session on teacher recruitment and retention (Tuesday 12 December).
Release of revised 2023 KS2 results (Thursday 14 December).

Steve Besley

Disclaimer: Education Eye is intended to help colleagues keep up to date with national developments in the education sector. Information is correct at the time of writing and is offered in good faith. No liability is accepted by Steve Besley or EdCentral for decisions made on the basis of any information provided.