Steve Besley's Education Eye: week ending 15 December 2023

Welcome to Education Eye, a regular update detailing the policies and stories happening in UK education, compiled by Steve Besley.

What's happened this week?

Important stories across the board:

A damning report on social divide in the UK, a challenging report on education spending, and some sober figures on the economy.

Hardly a week of glad tidings.

Elsewhere, the end-of-term has brought the usual rush of information – including important documents such as the launch of the consultation on the Advanced British Standard and on free speech in higher education.

More on all these below, but first a quick look at those three headline developments of the week.

That damning report on social divide in the UK first. This came from a major project, being undertaken by the Centre for Social Justice whose Social Justice Commission published a 300-page report this week. Described as ‘unflinching,’ the report concludes that “the state of our nation is unwell, with the deep systemic problems facing those at the bottom of society in danger of becoming entrenched.”

On each of its five drivers for poverty – covering family breakdown, addiction, worklessness, serious personal debt and educational failure – the Commission found a situation that has got worse, in many cases exacerbated by the lockdown, leading to ‘a yawning gap between those who can get by and those stuck at the bottom’. It’s a distressing picture, which as the report says, leaves the UK in danger of sliding back into the ‘Two Nations’ of the Victorian era.

The Commission will suggest solutions in a report in the spring, but it all came in a week which saw social issues very much to the fore The charities Action for Children and Coram both had reports out this week in a similar vein. Coram, for instance, called for a Charter for Children after finding that “after decades of progress, it is clear that, on a range of metrics, life is no longer getting better for all our children and young, people.”

Next, that challenging report on education spending. This was the Institute for Fiscal Studies’ latest annual report into government spending on education in England.

Described as “comprehensive, investigative and eye-opening,” by Josh Hillman, Director of Education at the Nuffield Foundation which sponsored it, the report points to a number of interesting trends, including notably the distribution of deprivation funding and the “pernicious effects of cash-terms freezes in key features of the education funding system”.

The government claimed in response that “we are taking the long-term decisions to improve our education system for generations to come by investing record funding into schools”, but education reactions were unconvinced

The ASCL reckoned “this report shows the reality behind the government’s boasts about record funding for schools. Investment has in fact failed to keep pace with school costs”. While according to David Hughes at the Association of Colleges, "this IFS report reinforces what we already know –that much more funding is desperately needed for colleges to fulfil their potential”.

The worry, as the report notes in its conclusion, is that Scrooge like, 'the government has signalled a further tight set of public spending plans after 2024, such that budgetary pressures may continue into the rest of the decade'.

As to the economic news this week, the surprise headline here was that the UK economy shrank in October, following a rise in the previous month.

The Chancellor said it was "inevitable" economic growth would be subdued while "interest rates are doing their job to bring down inflation", but again, this news came in a week of other difficult economic headlines,with both the CBI and British Chambers of Commerce issuing flat economic forecasts for the year ahead. Lots of uses of the adjective ‘challenging’.

In other general news this week, the Education Committee questioned Damian Hinds on teacher recruitment and retention, and education ministers took education questions in the House of Commons.

Questions ranged from the Ruth Perry tragedy (“we will build on her legacy to help ensure that such a tragedy never happens again” Keegan) to RAAC (“We have a lot of people working on this and rightly so, including making sure that all the surveys get done” Hinds). minimum service levels consultation (“MSLs will balance the right to strike with children’s fundamental right to a good education. Keegan”), to T levels and international students, both stoutly defended.

And further afield, the EU announced what President Ursula von der Leyen described as “the first-ever comprehensive legal framework on Artificial Intelligence worldwide”. It uses a four-level risk-based approach – minimal, high, unacceptable and specific transparency that will ultimately be applied across all member states under a new European AI Office.

For schools this week, the government confirmed this summer’s KS2 results. And Ofqual published a batch of data on reviews and grade changes for this summer’s GCSE, AS and A level results, along with an end of year report card on how the exam and assessment system has delivered this year. The awarding of 7m+ certificates gives some idea of the extent of the system.

Talking of exams, these featured heavily in two significant reports this week, with both a House of Lords Committee and the consultancy Public First calling for an easing of the exam burden as part of a better-balanced curriculum for the future.

The Lords Committee called for the EBacc to be scrapped as it reviewed the 11-16 curriculum for schools in England, concluding that ‘major change is necessary’. As the Guardian editorial put it in summing up the report: 'like an uncomfortable sofa, the English secondary school curriculum is both too narrow and over stuffed'.

In its survey review of the school curriculum, Public First found that some 54% of parents would prefer for their child to go to a school prioritising extra-curricular activities and life skills, versus 37% who prefer that their child attends a school prioritising academic achievement and exams). And to school accountability, 'The ultimate reward for getting this right could be the creation of a new generation of happy and healthy young people', it concluded.

And to round off the week for schools, colleges and others, the government launched a major consultation on its proposed post-16 reforms, collectively known as the Advanced British Standard (ABS). Nearly sixty questions – on everything from the main purpose of the ABS, what it might look like for students, providers and employers, how it’ll be assessed and so on.

The accompanying impact assessment suggests 'the ABS will result in a positive impact for learners'. Others appeared less sure, with Geoff Barton describing it as "headless chicken policymaking", although the Association of Colleges (AoC) welcomed the focus on ‘improving the life chances of young people'.

On to FE, specifically where the LTE Group this week published an interesting report on the funding and management of devolved skills provision.

And the FE Commissioner issued her annual report after a notably busy year, listing four aims for the team for the year ahead, including helping colleges become central to the delivery of skills and ‘increasing high ratings for quality and financial resilience’.

In HE, the government set out the scope and terms of reference for the review of the Office for Students, which will begin shortly and conclude early next summer. And the OfS itself published consultations on its proposals for dealing with issues around free speech. ‘Students can make provocative remarks if they do not break the law,’ was how The Guardian saw it.

Elsewhere in HE, the HE Policy Institute (HEPI) has been carrying out an interesting roundup on the state of HE here. It included a detailed presentation by Mary Curnock Cook on the growing interest in a tertiary system. “Tertiary Education needs to prepare people for today’s occupational needs, while giving them the skills and cognitive agility to carry on learning and developing as the working world around them changes”.

But also a fascinating summary by Nick Hillman on some of the challenges ahead for UKHE, particularly heading into an election year. It includes thoughts on the OfS (‘they’ve had a tricky year, but are not likely to face the chop from a new government’); international students (‘the policy backdrop has been like a roller coaster’); funding (‘the system is not broken but there is a shortfall in the income for teaching home students') and student cost-of-living.

Links to most of these stories below, starting with the headlines.

And finally, as this is the last Education Eye for this year, best wishes for the festive season and thanks for reading. Education Eye will be back in the New Year, when we will continue to provide regular summaries for those who find them useful.

The top headlines of the week:

‘Unions call for immediate pause to Ofsted inspections (Monday).
‘Peers call for urgent overhaul of secondary education in England’ (Tuesday).
‘UK’s post-study visa not attracting skilled workers' (Wednesday).
’65,000 more exam grade appeals but still below pre-Covid levels’ (Thursday).
‘UK considers crackdown on under 16s’ social media use’ (Friday).

General:

Starmer speech. Sir Keir Starmer set out future Labour principles and policy ambitions as he made a major speech on the 4^thanniversary of the last general election, arguing that Labour now had a new mission to serve.
NAO on the DSIT. The National Audit Office (NAO) published a guide to the Dept for Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT) running through how it’s structured, its ambitions, budget, programmes and key partner agencies.
Education spending. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IfS) published its latest major annual report into education spending in England acknowledging the pressures felt across most parts of education and the efforts by government to try and confront some of these but concluding that inflation, cash freezes and funding gaps have left all sectors feeling squeezed with things likely to remain very tight in the short to medium term..
Two Nations. The Centre for Social Justice published a major report from its prestigious Social Justice Commission painting a pretty bleak State of the Nation picture when measured against a range of poverty measures, pointing ultimately to a widening gulf between those getting by and those stuck at the bottom.
Bleak Christmas. The charity Action for Children highlighted the financial pressures facing many families as it published new survey evidence showing that 2.6m children are living in material deprivation, going as a result without the basics from food to warmth and potentially presents at Christmas.
Children’s Charter. The charity Coram equally highlighted the challenges facing many children and families as it launched a carefully costed new Charter for Children built around three unlocking principles of a fair share of the nation’s resources, a secure future and an equal chance.
Childcare costs.The House of Commons Library Service looked into childcare costs and access in a new briefing, running through the latest announcements from government including what support was available for parents in HE and FE with childcare needs.
Labour market latest. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published the latest set of data on the UK labour market showing regular pay continuing to climb but more slowly, employment up, economic inactivity slightly down but high among 16–24-year-olds, and vacancies slightly down again.
Labour market analysis. The Institute for employment Studies (IES) published its regular useful analysis of the latest labour market data from the ONS suggesting that with vacancies falling again, pay growth down, and employment falling for young people, ‘the labour market is continuing to cool off.’
Economic forecast. The CBI set out its forecast for the economy in the year ahead suggesting growth will remain ‘sluggish’ at 0.8%, CPI inflation will remain over 2% and unemployment is likely to continue to rise.
Business matters. The British Chambers of Commerce reported on the second meeting of its prestigious Business Council which saw both government and Opposition Work and Pensions’ Secretaries questioned on workforce issues as the Council prepared to publish its recommendations early next year.
EU AI. The European Commission claimed ‘an historic first-ever comprehensive legal framework on Artificial Intelligence,’ which, following agreement between the European Parliament and Council on AI Act, will see a risk-based rules approach applied across Member States over the next couple of years.

More specifically ...

Schools:

ABS. The government launched the consultation on its proposed post-16 reforms coming under the Advanced British Standard (ABS,) calling for views on the nature and aims of the ABS, what it might look like, the impact on students and other qualifications, and plenty more.
Funding. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IfS) argued in its annual report on government spending on education that despite the recent promises to increase the core schools budget by 2024/5, inflation, pay awards and rising costs generally will still leave school spending per pupil next year back at the level of 2010.
KS 2. The government published revised data for KS2 assessments and progress this year confirming that 60% of pupils met the expected standards in reading, writing and maths, up 1% from the year before while for reading specifically, performance dropped 2% on the previous year.
Exam queries 2023. Ofqual published a batch of data on reviews of marking and moderation, what used to be known as enquiries about results, for GCSE, AS and A level this summer, showing an increase in the number of reviews requested this year although down on the pre-pandemic year and with the percentage of grades changed this year also down on 2019.
Delivery report. Ofqual published a summary (delivery) report on this year’s exams and assessments running through the careful steps taken to transition exams back to so-called normal times, along with combined results days, regulation of end-point assessments in apprenticeships, and the management of systems delivery generally.
Inspections. Two leading unions, ASCL and the NAHT, called for ‘an immediate pause’ in Ofsted inspections following the recent inquest into the death of Ruth Parry, arguing that given the concerns that had been raised by the coroner, more time was needed for these to be fully addressed by Ofsted.
Balanced systems. The consultancy Public First examined current issues in the school system in a report commissioned by the Laidlow Foundation, finding teachers and parents calling for a simpler ‘scorecard’ accountability system and a better balance to the curriculum between an academic core, skills and extra-curricular activity.
11-16 reform. A House of Lords Committee published the results of its inquiry into the secondary curriculum in schools concluding that change was needed ‘without delay’ and recommending in particular slimming down and widening the curriculum especially around GCSEs, dropping the EBacc, and ensuring the provision of digital, literacy and numeracy skills.
Teacher R and R. The House of Commons Library Service published a briefing on teacher recruitment and retention, using 2022 data to look at issues such as teacher numbers, pay awards and workloads and finding that despite recent government initiatives to encourage more recruitment and retention, numbers have not kept pace with increasing pupil numbers.
Carbon footprint. Ofqual reported on its commissioned review into the carbon footprint of the exam system using the exemplar of a single student undertaking the two English Language GCSEs, finding the exam system generally working to reduce carbon impact but with issues such as pupil travel to and from an exam and lighting exam halls emerging as greater factors.
Mental healthtargets. The Education Policy Institute called on the government to update its mental health workforce strategy and revise a number of other strategies around children and mental health as it published a new report and accompanying tracker showing that just 36% of government policies in this area had been implemented since 2015.
Mental health strategy. The Coalition for Youth Mental Health in Schools reported on best practice in schools for tackling mental health, providing case study evidence from a variety of schools that have built effective approaches using the DfE’s eight principles of a whole school approach, with timely access to mental health services a key expectation..
FSM effect. The Child Poverty Action Group (CPAG) and the NEU reported on their study on the effects of free school meals (FSM) on children and families in two London Boroughs pointing to the positive multiplier effect of benefits for children and families alike from such a system.

FE/Skills:

Funding. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IfS) reported on government spending for FE and skills in its latest report into education spending in England, pointing out that despite the government’s commitment to skills and training and the extra funding promised, its done little to reverse a history of cuts especially to adult skills, with considerable challenges remaining over learner numbers, curriculum reform and lifelong learning.
Commissioner’s report. The FE Commissioner published her annual report showing the work of her and her team over the 2022/23 year which saw a big rise in support visits at just under 300 over the year, help provided for some 13 colleges through intervention, and a range of close working with government and National Leaders on key policy and delivery issues.
Skills Survey. The government published the report from its commissioned Employer Skills Survey for 2022 showing employers generally facing ‘a notable increase in skills challenges’ with hard to fill vacancies because of skill shortages evident in sectors like construction and IT and with skills gaps generally growing but at the same time, a reduction in training provided and in work experience opportunities.
Skills for Life. The government outlined, the resources, toolkit and other publicity material now available to help with its campaign designed to encourage people of all ages to find out more about skills and technical courses ‘to help make the most of their potential.’
Skills devolution. The LTE Group highlighted a number of emerging risks around post-16 devolution of skills and funding in England in a new report, calling as a result for balanced funding to help level up, annual capacity planning within combined authorities so that local needs could be met, and a delivery framework focused on commissioning rather than on control.

HE:

OfS review. The government published the terms of reference and scope of the review for the Office for Students (OfS) which will cover such aspects as its delivery, governance, accountability and efficiency, and aim to complete next May.
Free speech. The Office for Students (OfS) launched consultations on its proposed free speech complaints scheme which will entitle individuals to raise concerns with a respective university, college or student union as well as place duties on student unions to secure legal free speech under monitoring by the OfS.
Funding. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IfS) highlighted some of the pressures on university and student finances in its annual report on education spending in England, with the cap on tuition fees likely to continue for another year and the value of student maintenance loans subject to the ravages of inflation, leaving many universities vulnerable on numbers.
End of year report. Nick Hillman, director at the HE Policy Institute (HEPI) reviewed the state of UKHE at the end of another tumultuous year and ahead of a likely general election year, running though the challenges facing the OfS, the ‘roller coaster’ of policy on international students, funding and “the potential for reform, maintenance costs, and likely election issues.
Teacher training. GuildHE published ‘a teacher education manifesto’ with a set of nine proposals including strengthening and funding the role of universities in providing teacher training and support, to help tackle concerns about teacher recruitment and retention.
TNE. The International HE Commission set out in a new report a number of proposals for strengthening transnational education (TND) and for supporting the UK role as a leader in this area, calling among other things for a dedicated UK marketing initiative, appropriate international data, and formalised targets as part of the next International Education Strategy.
University funding. Times correspondent Alice Thomson examined the role of international students in light of recent government proposals to tackle migration in general and study visas in particular, arguing that rather than allowing universities to rely on such students to help build their coffers, it might be better to invest more in UKHE so that universities don’t have to rely on such students in the first place.
Student numbers. Wonkhe’s David Kernohan examined what’s been happening to undergraduate (traditional 18-year-old) recruitment given the slight drop in numbers this year, suggesting that demand has remained high but that policy pressures around funding, capacity, and a return to formal A level exams have conspired to constrain growth in the sector.

Tweets and posts of note:

“'One GCSE exam has a carbon footprint of 5.6kg CO2e or carbon dioxide equivalent. That’s about the same as driving 1.8km in a three-door petrol car,' says @ofqual chief Dr Jo Saxton” | @tes
“Nativity was a triumph. 2 cases of severe stage fright and a couple of lost crowns but remarkably smooth sailing!” | @ HeyMissSmith
"I’m fed up with hearing that fewer students should be going to university. While the intention is sensible, the reality is that it just reinforces class divides” | @jim_dickinson
“Four stages of a man’s life: You believe in Santa’; You don’t believe in Santa; You are Santa; You look like Santa” | @Miss_Snuffy
“I’m sorry, I refuse to call it Xmas, I’m going to keep calling it Twittermas like before” | @MooseAllain

Memorable quotes

A selection of quotes that merit attention:

“I dragged this Labour Party back to service and I will do exactly the same to politics” – Sir Keir Starmer reflects on the last general election four years ago as he sets out Labour’s new mission.
“The UK is set for another year of weak growth over 2024 as significant headwinds continue to impact the UK economy” – the CBI issues its economic prognosis for the year ahead.
“Though 2024 could bring respite to employers struggling to recruit, for now the labour market remains competitive” – the CIPD responds to the latest labour market figures.
“For too many Britain is broken and the gap between the haves and have-nots is in danger of becoming a chasm” – the Centre for Social Justice publishes a damning report on a divided Britian.
“In my view, the current funding situation for universities is unsustainable, but the funding system itself is not” – Nick Hillman reflects on funding and other matters in an end-of-year report card for UKHE.
““The moment we have a skills levy or you dilute it, as some are suggesting, all it means is you slash the number of apprentices, and everything I want to do is to increase the number of apprentices, especially degree apprentices” – the skills minister quoted in the Times Higher.
“I know that the Hon. Lady will be eating mince pies at Christmas, but I suggest that early next year she may be eating humble pie, because our T-level programme is something to be proud of” – the skills minister defends T levels in answer to a question in parliament.
“Colleges cannot keep doing more with less, and across the country they are living with the consequences of consistent funding reduction over the past decade” – the AoC responds to the IfS report on education spending.
“We have also spoken about our concerns to the incoming Chief Inspector, Sir Martyn Oliver, who begins his term of office in January, and we have arranged for a formal meeting with him as soon as he takes up his post” – unions call for a pause in inspections following last week’s inquest.

Important numbers

Not-to-be-missed numbers of the week:

0.3%. The amount by which the UK economy contracted in October, more than had been expected and driven by poor performances in sectors such as services and construction, according to latest data from the ONS.
1.6%. The forecast growth figure for the UK economy in 2020 following a slow rise next year but still below post 2008/9 crash figures, according to the CBI.
26%. The drop in the number of green jobs advertised this year, although their share of the labour market has increased to 2.3% according to PwC’s Green Jobs Barometer.
12.7%. The unemployment rate among young people aged 16-24 compared to 3.9% for those aged 25-34 according to latest ONS labour market figures
44.5%. The percentage of malpractice cases in this year’s GCSE, AS and A level exams involving mobile phones and other communication devices, the same as last year according to latest data from Ofqual.
7%. The projected rise in schools’ cost for 2023/4, according to the IfS.
35.6%. The number of schools in England currently participating in the National Tutoring Programme
398,796. The number of penalty notices issued over the 2022/23 year for unauthorised pupil absences, higher than the latest pre-pandemic figure and largely due to unauthorised family holidays according to latest government figures.
48. The number of policies on children’s mental health out of 135 that have been implemented since 2015, with 79 where some action has been taken and 8 where it’s not clear if any action has been taken, according to the Education Policy Institute.
£6.07. The mean hourly parent-paid fee charged by childcare providers for children aged 2, up from £5.72 last year according to latest government figures.
£550. The projected amount the average UK household is expected to spend this Christmas, up from £480 last year according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR.)
£1.94. The cost of running a 100 string of incandescent Christmas lights for six hours a day for a month, 15p for LED lights according to moneysavingexpert.

Everything else you need to know ...

What to look out for next week:

Education Questions in the Commons (Monday 11 December).
Education Committee evidence session on teacher recruitment and retention (Tuesday 12 December).
Release of revised 2023 KS2 results (Thursday 14 December).

Steve Besley

Disclaimer: Education Eye is intended to help colleagues keep up to date with national developments in the education sector. Information is correct at the time of writing and is offered in good faith. No liability is accepted by Steve Besley or EdCentral for decisions made on the basis of any information provided.