Steve Besley's Education Eye: week ending 12 January 2024

Welcome to Education Eye, a regular update detailing the policies and stories happening in UK education, compiled by Steve Besley.

What's happened this week?

Important stories across the board:

Back to school, but not it seems for everyone.

Pupils missing school has been a concern for some time, particularly since the pandemic, and a new report this week – and accompanying ministerial calls for action – have seen the issue thrust back into the headlines.

Current figures indicate that the overall pupil absence rate last year was 7.0%, with just over 21% of pupils deemed persistent absentees, defined as such by missing 10% of sessions or more. In both cases the figures were slightly down on the previous year, but still up on the pre-pandemic year. In all, some 140,700 pupils were missing at least half of their schooling or more.

More worryingly, the latest report from the Centre for Social Justice found evidence that for some parents, attending school everyday didn’t seem to have been as important as previously. ‘Nearly a third of parents polled agreed that the pandemic had shown that it wasn’t essential for children to attend school every day’. This wasn’t the first such finding. The consultancy Public First reported similar findings last year. ‘Covid had caused a seismic shift in parental attitudes to school attendance that is going to take a monumental, multi-service effort to change,’ it concluded in a report last September.

So what to do?

The Centre for Social Justice, which has been assiduously tracking attendance trends for some time, put forward its own seven-point plan covering more mentors, more metrics, and more sport in schools, along with a best practice strategy for parents.

Some of this was reinforced by Bridget Phillipson, the shadow education secretary, in her accompanying speech to the Centre.

She acknowledged that something had gone wrong in the relationship between schools and parents, but that “cheaper holidays, birthdays, not fancying it today”, were no excuse for missing school. ‘Penalties must be part of the system’, she said firmly. But on the good cop side, Labour would make schools more welcoming, provide free breakfasts for primary schools and more teachers, bring in a single number system to help track children, and provide for a register of home-schooled children.

Such a register had been promised by the government in its response to last year’s report from the Education Committee on the matter. ‘The government will legislate for these at a future suitable opportunity’, it said.

That opportunity has yet to arise but the education secretary, who claimed this week that “tackling attendance is my number one priority”, did announce a big increase in the number of attendance hubs and monitors.

Unions appeared unimpressed. In the words of the NAHT 'whilst there is nothing wrong with the expansion of attendance hubs, schools need more than advice'. Or as the NEU put it 'Too little, too late'.

Missing school remains an important issue. As the Confederation of School Trusts summed it up, 'going to school is not only about getting good grades. It is also about being with your friends, contributing to your sense of growing up and your wellbeing'.

Latest figures covering last term from the data site FFT Education Datalab suggest an improving picture, although with some concern still over persistent absences. Many will be following such figures carefully as the year unfolds.

In other school news this week, Sir Martyn Oliver announced that Ofsted inspections would start again on 22 January and that he intended to work ‘constructively’ with the leadership unions during his tenure. Unions leaders reciprocated cautiously. ‘These are early days … but we are encouraged’.

Elsewhere, the Education Endowment Foundation published a guide to using research evidence, suggesting a red flag warning system of what to look out for. And the Sutton Trust called for a review of the school admissions code as it published new research showing many of the top comprehensives becoming more selective. It’ll be holding a webinar on this latest research on 27 February.

In FE, the Association of Colleges (AoC) set out some of the issues around pay, skills and capital investment that it intends to include in its Treasury submission for the forthcoming Budget.

Former Federation of Awarding Bodies (FAB) chief, Tom Bewick, floated a new set of initials – DESIS or Department for Employment Skills and Industrial Strategy – as he reflected on what a general election might mean for FE and skills.

The government published the list of L3 qualifications, submitted as part of cycle 1, for funding from August 2025. The list will be confirmed in May this year, allowing providers a year or so to plan and prepare. And the latest GCSE resits results for exams taken last November, showed many still struggling to master maths. Resitting can be a ‘miserable experience’ as the ASCL put it.

In HE, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IfS) added to the policy tension around HE financing by highlighting the impact of high inflation and borrowing costs on the student loan system. 'What is certain', it concluded, 'is that funding student loans has become substantially more expensive for the government over the past two years – and official measures do not reflect that at all'. As well as making a loss on the loans that are not repaid, the government can now also expect to make a loss on the loans that are. This could be as much as £7.3bn on the current entry cohort.

It left Bloomberg UK, and perhaps many others, musing 'who exactly is benefitting from this system?'. Labour is looking for answers.

Also in HE, the Office for Students published a commissioned evaluation into its recent pilot of short courses. Low take-up, differing aspirations, and design challenges, were among the report’s conclusions. ‘Pilot crash’ as the Times Higher put it.

Finally, in Westminster this week, Lib-Dem MP Munira Wilson set out the case for every school to have access to a qualified mental health professional. She said that this would be paid for by tripling the digital services tax on big social media companies, "given the harm that they have contributed to our children’s mental health". Her proposed Bill will have its Second Reading in June.

MPs also used a Westminster Hall debate to discuss access to free school meals for SEND pupils with the Schools Minister promising to update the guidance.

Elsewhere, the Education Committee held its second evidence session as part of its inquiry into screen time and its effects on children’s wellbeing and education. The inquiry continues.

And next week sees the annual gathering of the big names for the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting at Davos. The strapline of the three-day fest this year is ‘Rebuilding Trust’ and the sessions are set around four themes: security and cooperation; growth and jobs; the role of AI; and climate change.

The UK is beefing up its participation after its one-man show last year, with David Cameron and Jeremy Hunt heading the government team and Rachel Reeves and John Ashworth from the Opposition. They’ll mingle and share canapes with CEOs from over a thousand global companies, let alone entrepreneurs and techies.

Links to most of these stories below starting with the headlines.

The top headlines of the week:

‘Attendance crisis: DfE expands hubs and mentor scheme’ (Monday).
‘Student loan costs to balloon by £10bn a year – IfS report’ (Tuesday).
‘Eton mess: start of school term delayed as flooding causes toilets to back up’ (Wednesday).
’Pass rates fall for GCSE maths resits in England' (Thursday).
‘UK universities risk falling into deficit as foreign student numbers fall.’ (Friday).

General:

Global economy. The World Bank published its latest Global Economic Prospects report indicating that while the threat of global recession had receded, the medium-term outlook for many developing economies had ‘darkened’ with global growth trade down, borrowing costs up and global growth remaining slow.
Living standards. The TUC reported on its recent analysis showing that real household disposable incomes in the UK were lower towards the end of last year than in 2019 and that the UK was the only G7 economy where household budgets had yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels.
Lives cut short. UCL’s Institute of Health Equity published further research on health inequality showing an increase in excess deaths in the decade from 2011 with some of it due to Covid but much also “associated with the pre-existing trend in mortality due to inequality.”
Start for Life. The government launched its ‘Little Moments Together’ campaign providing one stop support and help for parents as part of its Start for Life family hubs scheme, now spread to all local authorities.
Children’s health. Labour set out a Child Health Action Plan built around seven objectives including tackling children’s mental health services, cutting waiting lists for children, banning junk food advertising to children and the much publicised ‘national supervised toothbrushing programme’ for 3-5-year-olds.
Video gaming. The children’s commissioner published children’s views on gaming in a new report, with children broadly supportive of playing video games and not seeing them as a significant cause of harm in terms of health and wellbeing although with boys appearing more positive than girls.

More specifically ...

Schools:

Missing school. The Centre for Social Justice published new survey evidence showing how far lockdown had destroyed the contract between schools and parents in some cases including expecting regular attendance, recommending as a result a seven-point action plan for helping remedy the situation.
Shadow speech. Bridget Phillipson, the shadow education secretary outlined Labour plans for tackling pupil absenteeism including ‘empowering’ Ofsted to review absences and using AI to spot absence trends along with other likely Labour education reforms such as the use of inspection report cards, providing more teachers and focusing on standards as she addressed the Centre for Social Justice.
School attendance. The government announced an increase in attendance monitors, more attendance hubs and a new communications campaign as it sought to spearhead a new drive on tackling pupil absenteeism in schools.
Latest absence. FFT Education Datalab reported on pupil absence rates for last term pointing to an improvement at both primary and secondary largely due to a reduction in illness-related absence, albeit more marked in some regions than others and with some continuing unease about the level of persistent absentees.
Ofsted. Sir Martyn Oliver, Ofsted’s chief inspector, announced plans to respond shortly to the recent coroner’s inquest and to work closely in the coming weeks with union leaders as he confirmed that school and FE inspections would start again from 22 January following a programme of mental health awareness training.
Research evidence. The Education Endowment Foundation published what it called ‘a concise guide to using research evidence,’ essentially running through the various types of research available and helping the user select which might be the most useful.
Select comprehensives.The Sutton Trust called for access reviews and restrictions on additional admissions criteria among other things as it published new research on school admissions, conducted by NFER, and showing that a number of top comprehensive schools in England were becoming more selective.
Free school meals. Sadiq Khan, the London Mayor, announced plans to extend universal free school meals for state primary school children in London for a further year, potentially saving families in the capital up to £1,000 per child over the two years of the current scheme.

FE/Skills:

L3. The government published a list of the post-16 L3 qualifications submitted for public funding from August 2025 in areas like construction, digital and early years, which are due to be formally confirmed in May this year.
Budget matters. The Association of Colleges (AoC) confirmed that it intended to build on its Autumn Statement paper as well as identify key issues around pay, skills and capital investment when it published its submission to the Treasury for the forthcoming Budget.
Election issues. Former Federation of Awarding Bodies (FAB) chief Tom Bewick considered what might be in party manifestos for FE and skills come the election, suggesting both major parties are likely to focus on schools and standards but with the Conservatives promoting the Advanced British Standard, Lifelong Learning, skills planning and qualification reform, and Labour looking at quango reform such as around apprenticeships, and potentially a new skills dept.
Manufacturing. Make UK and PwC reported UK manufacturers feeling more positive about the future in their latest survey of senior manufacturing executives, with more than four-fifths believing conditions will improve and ‘increasing numbers’ that the UK will become more competitive.
Governance. The Education and Training Foundation published a series of competency frameworks for FE Chairs and governors covering such areas as leadership, behaviours and specialist technical skills, to help with future development of governance professionals.

HE:

Student loans. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IfS) highlighted the growing cost to government of financing student loans in a new briefing, suggesting that this could reach £10bn a year or more and that worryingly this doesn’t appear to be reflected in official government measures.
Short courses.The Office for Students (OfS) published a commissioned evaluation report into its 2022 short course trial programme pointing to low levels of take-up, uncertainties about the model, tightened time frames and funding concerns, calling accordingly for more time, support and clarity of purpose for any future such programme.
Embedding Employability. Advance HE set out a new framework for embedding employability in UK HE, developed as part of its Student Success series and viewed through the perspectives of institutions, educators and students.

Tweets and posts of note:

“There’s probably a word in German for reaching the train station with your kid only to realise it’s an inset day” | @SamCoatesSky
“I think @Timw1983Wright made the best point on @tombennett71 thread on equipment – if a student never forgets their phone, surely they can always remember a pen?” | @RogersHistory
“That's our rule with our son. No phone till 16/18. Some of his primary school mates have phones but I think that he's too young. Kids haven't got the sense to sort out what is good info and what is bad info online and I do think that it is creating bad outcomes” | @eff_mr6862
“Just 125 students out of an expected 2,400 enrolled onto the government’s higher education short course trial – raising questions about demand for the incoming lifelong learning entitlement” | @FEWeek
“Could I just express my immense gratitude to Microsoft for creating a system of sharing documents by providing an edited text with the button 'Share'. Then when you click on it, and send it, it disappears completely and doesn't reach its destination. Thanks so much” | @MichaelRosenYes

A selection of quotes that merit attention:

“As the world nears the midpoint of what was intended to be a transformative decade for development, the global economy is set to rack up a sorry record by the end of 2024 of the slowest half decade of GDP growth in 30 years” – the World Bank’s rather downbeat message for the new year.
“The slowdown in our labour market seems to be easing a bit” – the recruitment and employment confederation report on recruitment activity at the end of last year.
“Embrace your tribal instinct and spend more time in the office” – the Home Secretary’s urges civil servants to work less from home and spend more time in the office.
“What is certain, however, is that funding student loans has become substantially more expensive for the government over the past two years – and official measures do not reflect that at all” – the IfS digs into the costs of student loans.
“The results show that while most parents agree every school day matters, some of that support has become quite soft” – the Centre for Social Justice reports on ‘a worrying drop’ in parental commitment to pupil attendance.
“Moments Matter, Attendance Counts” – the strapline for the government’s new school attendance campaign.
“It’s a mistake to classify all children who misbehave as being kind of vulnerable, fragile angels who just made a bad decision” – behaviour tsar Tom Bennett on the need to take some tough decisions on pupil misbehaviour.
“I hear thick sobs” – the i newspaper reports on human stories from the National Debtline.

Important numbers

Not-to-be-missed numbers of the week:

2%. The cut in class 1 national insurance contributions, down from 12% to 10% from this week for those earning between £12,570 and £50,270 a year according to the latest government blurb.
52.7%. The number of surveyed British manufacturers who reckon the UK is now a more competitive place to locale their activities, according to Make UK.
28%. The number of parents in a survey who felt that the pandemic had shown that it’s not essential for children to attend school every day, according to a Centre for Social Justice report.
32. The number of school Attendance Hubs, as promised by the government.
20%. The number of teachers surveyed who’ll be job hunting or retiring this year, broadly the same as last year according to a recent survey from Teacher Tapp.
44%. The number of children surveyed who reckoned virtual realty gaming was good for their health and wellbeing, according to a survey from the children’s commissioner.
£140m. The cost of extending free school meals for state primary school children in London for a further year, according to the London Mayor.
38%. The number of people who expect to be better off this time next year, according to a survey reported by Bloomberg UK.

Everything else you need to know ...

What to look out for next week:

World Economic Forum Annual Meeting at Davos (Monday 15 January – Friday 19 January).
Launch of ‘A New Deal for Parents’ from the think tank Onward (Monday 15 January).
Launch of UCAS’s End of Cycle Data Resources (Thursday 18 January).

Steve Besley

Disclaimer: Education Eye is intended to help colleagues keep up to date with national developments in the education sector. Information is correct at the time of writing and is offered in good faith. No liability is accepted by Steve Besley or EdCentral for decisions made on the basis of any information provided.