Steve Besley's Education Eye: week ending 19 January 2024

Welcome to Education Eye, a regular update detailing the policies and stories happening in UK education, compiled by Steve Besley.

What's happened this week?

Important stories across the board:

The big stories this week have all involved numbers of some sort.

Here’s four of potential interest to education and skills.

First, the returns on national tutoring.

According to a funded report from the consultancy Public First, 'pupils who achieved better grades after they received post-Covid tutoring will boost the UK’s economy by £4.34 billion thanks to their higher lifetime earnings potential'.

This figure was arrived at by factoring in some 390,000 students achieving a higher grade through national tutoring during the two post-Covid years thereby boosting their earnings income on average by £10,000 over their lifetime. Not only that but the totals could be higher given the research only covered the two years of 2021/2 and 2022/3 and didn’t include 16+ year-olds who had their own scheme.

Full workings out can be seen in the brief report, but it provides an important tug on ministerial sleeves as we wait to hear whether future investment will be found to keep the scheme going and perhaps reflect on the missed opportunity of a formal catch-up programme being agreed in the aftermath of Covid-19 three years ago.

Second, the number of admin tasks that teachers shouldn’t be required to do.

In all, there are 23, ranging from data collection to bulk photocopying, and they can be found in the latest set of recommendations from the Workforce Reduction Taskforce published this week.

The work of this group has been rumbling on for a number of years in various guises as the government seeks to realise its target of 'reducing working hours of teachers and leaders by five hours per week within three years'.

The list of admin tasks under consideration has been in and out for a while, but now comes with a revised preamble incorporating a mini ask-yourself checklist of ‘does the task really need doing’ and if so ‘does it need professional skills?'. It’s still not quite clear who would do the task if not, although that may become clear when a further report is published in March.

Unions remain hopeful, but there’s more to do yet. As ASCL explained, 'of course, the update is only a very small part of the work that now needs to take place if we are to begin to see the reductions in workload we all aspire to'.

Third, the ongoing issue of HE finances, where two reports this week have highlighted continuing anxieties.

In their commissioned report for Universities UK, PwC analysed the financial returns for 84 member institutions for 2022, took a deep breath, and suggested that 'about 40% of England and NI members are expecting to be in deficit in 2023/2422'. 'It is perhaps not surprising that we foresee a challenging financial outlook for the sector, given a diminishing unit of resource for domestic students and increasing inflationary pressures on Higher Education provider cost bases'.

HEPI director Nick Hillman reckoned the report ‘pulled no punches’ although given a fair wind and ‘more favourable long-term assumptions', PwC believes that the number in deficit ‘reduces to 13% by 2026/27’.

In its report also out this week, the Times Higher similarly suggested some 40% of institutions would be operating with a deficit this year, 43% to be precise. As one vice chancellor in the survey put it “the sector is hurtling towards an unsustainable position financially, with more and more [institutions] fishing in the same applicant pot”.

Both reports point to the need for reform of the funding system with vice-chancellors in particular calling for an increase in tuition fees. The context can be seen in PwC’s useful SWOT analysis, which sees base costs such as pay, pensions, the fee cap, and the cost of transition to net zero as threats, but a resilient domestic market, alternative delivery models and diverse funding streams as opportunities.

It remains a difficult topic.

Fourth and on to this week’s high profile gathering in the snowy hills of Davos where AI has been one of the four key themes of this year’s World Economic Forum Annual Meeting, giving rise to some interesting language and numbers.

For many, a key issue remains its potential impact on jobs and work with a pre-Conference paper suggesting that 'almost 40% of employment globally is exposed to AI, which rises to 60% in advanced economies'. Not only that but 'Among workers, those that are college-educated and women are more exposed to AI, but also more likely to reap the benefits, while strong productivity gains could boost growth and wages'.

Its impact on jobs and livelihoods has been a source of debate for some time and no one can be sure of the exact numbers. The Forum offered competing lists of the ten fastest growing jobs and the ten fastest declining jobs in its Future of Jobs report last year with AI seen as the key factor. It followed a report by Goldman Sachs suggesting ‘AI could replace the equivalent of 300m f/t jobs’ globally. This year analysts have been more sanguine with French President Emmanuel Macron among others calling for reskilling for an AI era. The current phrase is ‘The Reskilling Revolution’.

Away from the numbers, here’s a quick run down of some of the other education stories this week.

For schools, Ofsted has continued to make the running with its publication of its response to the coroner’s report into the tragic Ruth Perry case. It’s promising a series of formal actions including pausing inspections to ensure such incidents never happen again. Unions saw it as only a first, albeit positive, first step.

And on reform, NAHT published what it called ‘a bold new vision for the future of Ofsted.’ The main thrust was to ensure lessons were learnt from the recent Ruth Perry case and systems and procedures reviewed for the longer term. This to include the end of single-word judgements but no place for report cards. School leaders were said to be ‘sceptical’ about them.

Elsewhere for schools, Durham University published an interesting report into the impact of crumbly concrete closures and disruption on the day-to-day life of one particular school. Its timeline for last term is quite something. 'No dining room / inside social space: reduced so that pupils are sitting on the floor in the school gym to eat their lunch'. The report calls for special consideration for exam groups.

And in other school news, Cambridge University Press and Assessment published further research into girls and boys performance at various stages of education. No spoiler needed.

And there were two interesting re-brands this week. The Commission on Young Lives, pivoted as they say in the trade, to become the Centre for Young Lives with a delivery drive to go with it. While the Maths Education for Social Mobility and Excellence (MESME) adopted the simpler and rather suitable name of Axiom maths as it launched a new programme of maths circles.

In FE, the Learning and Work Institute published a report on improving apprenticeship completion rates. Time and support for off the job training is a big issue.

And the DfE invited bids from colleges in England by the end of the month to take part in a one-year FE Funding Simplification pilot. The aim is to see where funding rules and regs could be simplified in a number of skills delivery areas, including apprenticeships. The AoC is keen to support the pilot. ‘We’ll need the best team on this pitch’.

Over in HE, the Russell Group added to the funding litany with a briefing on the support institutions are now having to make to help students during the cost-of-living crisis. 'Russell Group universities are spending tens of millions of pounds each year to support students through financial challenges, as maintenance support fails to keep step with the rising cost of living'.

And putting it all in perspective, Robert Shrimsley published a thought-provoking article in the Financial TImes about the challenges facing a future government looking to reform HE funding. "It is worth asking”, he wrote, "if the current student loans system in England is working”. His sense was that both major Parties had no answer to the question and just hoped something would turn up. “They appear to be relying on the institutions, or just osmosis, for a solution” he concluded.

Links to most of these stories below starting with the headlines.

The top headlines of the week:

‘UK government’s free childcare scheme in disarray, say charities’ (Monday).
‘Cambridge study finds girls outperform boys at schoo’ Tuesday).
‘Parents meet MPs to call for special needs support’ (Wednesday).
‘Pupils in unsafe schools need exam help – report’ (Thursday).
‘Ofsted to urge schools to pause inspections harming mental health of staff’ (Friday).

General:

Keynote. Michelle Donelan, the secretary of state for science, innovation and technology, set out her priorities for the year ahead in a keynote speech, listing in particular the creation of a new scale-up forum, improved data access, and a new regulatory support service for businesses.
Mental health. Sir Keir Starmer announced that former MP Luciana Berger would lead a mental health strategy review for the Labour Party and that, if elected, the Party would seek to train more mental health professionals to support those who self-harm.
Here’s the news. The House of Lords Communications and Digital Committee launched a new Inquiry into the future of news in the UK, looking in particular at issues of trust, impartiality and the impact of AI, particularly in relation to a forthcoming general election.
Labour market estimates. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published its estimates on the labour market for the last quarter of last year showing a further fall in the number of vacancies, a slight fall in the overall employment rate and a slower increase in wages, with the data subject to confirmation next month.
Labour market analysis. The Institute for Employment Studies (IES) published its regular assessment of the latest labour market figures pointing to the ‘unexpected’ improvement in the employment rate and drop in economic inactivity along with a slowing down in wage growth as evidence of the market ‘slowing down.’
Recruitment outlook. The British Chambers of Commerce reported on its latest Quarterly Recruitment Outlook covering the end of last year showing many businesses, particularly in the hospitality sector, facing recruitment difficulties with labour costs cited as the main cause of cost pressures.
CEO survey. The consultancy PwC published its latest annual survey of global CEOs showing UK CEOs concerned about the economy but looking to increase rather than decrease headcount over the coming year and being ahead of the game when it comes to adopting GenAI.
Value for money. Gareth Davies, head of the National Audit Office (NAO,) set out in a speech to MPs five features that could help improve productivity and value for money, including better management of infrastructure projects, asset management, procurement, digital transformation, and reducing fraud and error.
Wraparound childcare. The charity Coram highlighted, in a report commissioned by the Local Government Association (LGA,) some of the many challenges around capacity and planning facing local authorities as they look to extend wraparound (before and after school) childcare..
Education Day. UNESCO confirmed that the theme for next week’s International Day of Education will be ‘learning for lasting peace’ with a series of events and a particular focus, including a new guide, on tackling hate crime.

More specifically ...

Schools:

Support for teachers. The government issued an update on measures to support teacher recruitment and wellbeing, pointing to the gradual adoption of the Education Staff Wellbeing charter, new guidance this spring on tackling the harassment of staff and on workloads, and the additional investment being made in mental health support as key factors.
Workloads. The government and unions reported on progress being made in reducing teacher workloads, reiterating their commitment to building on the earlier 2016 recommendation, consulting on changing the current system of performance related pay, updating the list of admin tasks that teachers should not be required to do, and looking into other factors such as the burden of accountability, before reporting formally in March this year.
Ofsted. Ofsted issued its formal response to the coroner’s report on the Ruth Perry Inquest setting out a number of steps it will now take including establishing a procedure for providers who have concerns about an inspection, undertaking a dedicated learning review of Ofsted’s response to the tragic case and conducting a Big Listening exercise into the future.
Government response. The government also issued its response to the coroner’s report on the Ruth Perry case pledging to continue working with partners on teacher wellbeing and to undertake a review of safeguarding issues.
Inspection reform.The National Association of Head Teachers (NAHT) published a set of short- and longer-term proposals for reform of the school inspection system pointing to strong survey support for ending the current system of single word judgements along with a longer-term review of the current methodology.
RAAC effect. Durham University published an evidence report into the impact on pupils, staff and families in one particular school from the disruption caused by the RAAC situation which saw classrooms being closed and access to facilities limited, calling for exam groups to be made a special case with an increase in grades of up to 10%.
Tutoring benefits. The consultancy Public First published commissioned research into the returns on national tutoring showing that for the two post-Covid years the increase in student grades resulting from tutoring would likely benefit the Treasury by as much as £4.34bn through higher lifetime earnings potential.
Complex needs. Ofsted published the findings from its research into children with complex needs finding that while there was some evidence of good practice, too often children had to wait ages for suitable homes and even then some were far away or not best served, calling among other things for a clearer understanding of what complex needs means and how they could be best met.
Girl Power. Cambridge University Press and Assessment highlighted its recent detailed research into the education performance of boys and girls, showing how, as recent trends have indicated, girls have tended to outperform boys at most stages and in most subjects apart from maths, posing questions as a result about the role of equality initiatives and potential implications for the labour market.
Tech for teachers. The Digital Poverty Alliance called for a further wave of Tech4Teachers funding as it published a new report showing that many teachers found having their own laptop helped improve not only their own digital skills but their lesson planning as well.
New support Centre. The Commission on Young Lives, set up three years ago by former children’s commissioner Anne Longfield, announced that it was re-designating itself as a support Centre for Young Lives, with a focus on measurable delivery and support for young people and families.
Children’s reading. Leading children’s authors called on the government to commit “to a long-term national investment in books and reading for the under-sevens” as the BookTrust charity published survey evidence showing that only half of one- and two-year-olds from poorer backgrounds are read to daily..

FE/Skills:

Funding pilot. The government invited applications from colleges to its Funding Simplification pilot which will look at ways of simplifying rules around funding, audit and reporting in areas like adult skills and Skills Bootcamps and run from August 2024 – August 2025.
Degree apprenticeships. The Office for Students (OfS) reported that ten colleges were among the 50+ successful bidders from the first round of bids for funds to develop degree apprenticeships with a second funding round just completed and a third due this spring.
Apprenticeship report. The Learning and Work Institute reported on issues around apprenticeship completion rates in a second paper for the St Martin’s Group, concluding that for employers, providing time off for off the job training can be a big factor calling as a result for a working group to be set up to look at how to improve things.
Youth unemployment. The Learning and Work Institute highlighted the continuing high levels of youth unemployment evident in the latest labour force estimates, with the rate rising 0.3% in the latest quarter compared to the previous summer.

HE:

University finances. Universities UK published its commissioned report undertaken by PwC last year into the financial sustainability of UKHE, concluding that ‘institutions are facing significant financial challenges’ with many adopting cost-saving strategies such as back-office transformation but equally calling on the government to relieve pressures where possible.
V-C view. The Times Higher published the results of its survey among vice-chancellors of current concerns with many worried about both current and future funding levels and looking anxiously at options such as future domestic and international recruitment levels, but ultimately acknowledging that the current funding system wasn’t working.
Finance at franchised providers. The National Audit Office (NAO) called for stronger accountabilities and clearer responsibilities and system governance as it reported on concerns about potential fraud and abuse of finances at franchised providers.
Staffing numbers. The government reported on the latest set of staffing figures in UKHE for 2022/23 showing a slight increase in the number of academic staff including both f/t and p/t, with 20% of academic staff aged 56 or over, 44% female and 30% of academic staff on fixed-term contracts.
Degree apprenticeships.The Office for Students (OfS) confirmed that 40+ universities had been successful securing funding tin the first round to develop degree apprenticeship programmes with two further funding rounds yet to be completed and over £40m being made available.
Research boost. Research England announced £156m would be made available from the latest round of its Expanding Excellence in England (E3) Fund to support research in 18 universities with “small but outstanding research units,” looking into such topics as biodiversity and digital innovations in health and social care.
Cost-of-living. The Russell Group called on the government to look again at raising maintenance support as well as reviewing the parental earnings threshold for such support which has been frozen since 2018 as it published further evidence of the various forms of funds, bursaries and other support that Russell Group universities were providing currently to support hard up students.

Tweets and posts of note:

“I am adding to the general wellbeing of the education community by not starting a podcast” | @tstarkey1212
“Asked my teacher sister how her day was and she said all the kids kept throwing snowballs at her. I am laughing SO loud. who would choose this life?” | @AvaSantina
“Big news for the schools sector this morning. The Department for Education has pledged to scrap performance-related pay from September 2024” | @matilda_martin
“Boilers are sentient aren't they? They know this is the time to go wrong” | @almurray
“My son's latest go-to phrase when he wants to get his own way is, "Let me have some joy in life!” | @PippyBing
“Young adults report a preference for listening to sad music to lift their mood, compared with adults over the age of 25, who tend to report more positive feelings being evoked by happy music” | @ConversationUK

A selection of quotes that merit attention:

“Chief executives in the UK are adopting GenAI at a much faster rate than their peers, with 42% saying they have implemented the technology in the last year compared with 32% of CEOs globally” – PwC reports on its latest global survey of CEOs.
“The current HE funding model in England is broken and there is a need for a radical rethink” – the Times Higher highlights financial concerns in its survey of vice-chancellors.
“The Taskforce will also continue with its broader remit to investigate the wider drivers of high workload and working hours and will make further recommendations by March 2024” – the Workload Reduction Taskforce issues its initial recommendations
“IT support should check all devices are configured securely. They should also work with the designated safeguarding lead to review the filtering and monitoring requirements of the devices” – the government updates its IT guidelines around laptops and other devices.
“Now really is the moment for change. It is time to create a fair, proportionate and humane system of inspection that works for schools, pupils and parents alike” – the NAHT sets out new proposals for reform of school inspections.
“Government has behaved like an irresponsible parent. Leaving children at home to play alone with a box of matches and wondering why the house is on fire when it returns” – former children’s commissioner Anne Longfield sets up of a new support unit for children.
“Reading with children may sound like something which is nice to have in life, rather than something which is essential, but nothing could be further from the truth. There is overwhelming evidence that children who are read to do better across a wide range of outcomes” – the charity BookTrust calls for government investment in books and reading for the under-sevens.

Important numbers

Not-to-be-missed numbers of the week:

4%. The figure for CPI inflation for the end of last year, up slightly from the previous month’s 3.9% according to latest figures from the ONS.
20.8%. The latest estimated figure for economic inactivity for last autumn, down 0.1% according to the ONS.
67%. The number of global internet users saying that they had encountered hate speech online, according to a survey from UNECSO/IPSOS.
40%. The number of UKHE institutions forecasting a deficit this year falling to 13% in 2026/7, according to a report for Universities UK from PwC.
5%. The average pay rise for UK university vice-chancellors last year, according to a survey from the Times Higher.
127. The number of apprenticeship reviews completed by the Institute for Apprenticeships between April and December last year, above the DfE target of 100, according to the Institute.
85%. The number of school leaders who think there should be a longer notification period before a school inspection than the current half-day, with many favouring a period of between one and five days according to research from the NAHT.
£6.58. The benefit cost ratio on every £1 spent on national tutoring in the two years 2021/22 and 2022/23, according to research from Public First.
24%. The number of teachers surveyed who reckoned that a lack of confidence in their own digital skills was acting as a barrier to their using technology in learning, according to the Digital Poverty Alliance.
11%. The number of surveyed eligible parents signed up for an access code for the government’s new childcare scheme for two-year olds able to get one, according to the charity Pregnant Then Screwed.

Everything else you need to know ...

What to look out for next week:

Science Committee private meeting on the governance of AI (Tuesday 23 January).
Westminster Hall debate on school attendance (Tuesday 23 January).
Westminster Hall debate on availability of books in primary schools (Wednesday 24 January).
UNESCO’s International Day of Education (Wednesday 24 January).
BETT UK 2024 (Wednesday 24 January – Friday 26 January).
Nuffield Foundation hosted webinar on ‘The Future of Work and Skills’ (Wednesday 24 January).
Schools North East Academies Conference (Thursday 25 January).

Steve Besley

Disclaimer: Education Eye is intended to help colleagues keep up to date with national developments in the education sector. Information is correct at the time of writing and is offered in good faith. No liability is accepted by Steve Besley or EdCentral for decisions made on the basis of any information provided.