Steve Besley's Education Eye: week ending 22 March 2024

Welcome to Education Eye, a regular update detailing the policies and stories happening in UK education, compiled by Steve Besley.

What's happened this week?

Important stories across the board:

Teaching numbers, apprenticeships, childcare, the economy.

All key issues ahead of a general election and all in the news again this week as we head to an Easter break.

Teachers first, where NFER’s latest annual labour market report sparked BBC headline news about good old PE teachers having to be drafted in ‘to plug gaps in secondary maths.’  It’s one of 10 subject areas out of 17 likely to fall short of secondary teachers according to the report.

There’s been ‘a slight improvement’ in recruitment in some subject areas but the report starts its conclusion by saying that “teacher supply in England is in a critical state.” So why and what to do?

In terms of why, the reports points to three things: ever increasing working hours and workloads; the lack of the sorts of flexi working options enjoyed by other professions; and poor pay prospects.

As for what to do, the report calls for an independent review of workloads, a minimum 3.1% pay award for this year with ‘a long-term strategy to improve the competitiveness of teacher pay, and a Frontline Workers Pay Premium, potentially of 1.8%, to compensate for the lack of hybrid working opportunities.

Interim reporting from number crunchers SchoolDash suggests things have picked up a bit in some areas but many agree with ASCL’s Geoff Barton that “it’s high time the government gave this crisis the attention it warrants.”

On to apprenticeships where the Prime Minister outlined a number of reforms in a speech to small business leaders at the start of the week.

These included fully funding apprenticeship training for those aged under 21 from this April, a doubling of the levy transfer cap and more funding next year. “Taken together,” he claimed, “these measures will unlock a tidal wave of opportunity and make a real difference to businesses and entrepreneurs across the country.”

The sector welcomed some of the reforms. “In particular, it’s good to see the end of co-investment for young people,” according to the training providers body AELP.

But others felt that the reforms wouldn’t touch the sides. “Today’s announcements are not the concerted reform of apprenticeships required,” explained the Recruitment and Employment Confederation. The colleges sector agreed. “The targeted funding for all apprenticeships under the age of 21 will make a modest difference, but it is not enough,” the AoC said. It called for a wider review.

Childcare next where just ahead of the rollout of the government’s much vaunted childcare scheme, continuing concerns about the availability of places and provision for the most disadvantaged have been highlighted in a report this week.

It came from the children’s charity Coram, whose latest annual Family and Childcare survey painted what it called “a bleak picture for families, with dramatic drops in the availability of childcare places and above-inflation rises in childcare costs.”

On the plus side, over 60% of English councils reckon they’ll have enough places to meet the initial expansion of free places next month, but they’re not so sure when it comes to the wider rollout in September.

The Early Years Alliance said the report raised ‘serious questions’ with staffing one of the most pressing. Over 90% of councils in the report raised it as a worry. Other concerns included the provision of places for those with special needs, let alone rising costs generally. The report points to a part-time nursery place for a child under two now costing on average £158 a week. Up 7% just on last year.

The report concluded with a number of recommendations around future funding, the workforce and provision generally.

On to the economy where there have been two developments of note this week.

First the release of the latest CPI inflation figures which were better than many commentators had predicted with a drop to 3.4% for February. With food inflation down 2% and overall inflation figures expected to be around or just over 2% at year-end depending on which commentator you read, it was a welcome boost at last. In the words of the CBI, ‘inflation is heading in the right direction.’

And second, an important speech this week by shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves, particularly for those anxiously seeking a sense of how a future Labour government’s economic policy might shape up.

Her Mais Lecture argued that like the 1970s, ‘we are in a moment of flux,’ calling as a result for ‘a reshaping of the institutional architecture’ with the aim of restoring economic growth.

This would be built around three pillars: stability, investment and reform. Each with implications for education and skills.

Under stability, for instance, Labour would retain the 2% inflation target, place net zero at the heart of economic growth, stick to one Budget a year and get the OBR to report on the long-term impact of capital spending decisions. Under investment, Labour would revive and strengthen the Industrial Strategy Council, deliver a Green Prosperity Plan and support university spinouts. And under reform, Labour would overhaul the infrastructure regime, devolve economic powers to the regions, establish a New Deal for Working People and create a new Growth and Skills Levy.

Moving on to other general news this week, the Education Committee tackled minister Rob Halfon among others about the impact of industrial action on university students. He hoped lessons had been learned and that it wouldn’t happen again.

And Lib Dem MP Munira Wilson led a Westminster Hall debate on extending funding for the national tutoring programme. “I urge the Minister to please go away and talk to the Treasury about whether money can be found to continue this important intervention, because our children really do deserve the very best start in life.”

Funding is due to cease at the end of this academic year with the minister arguing that more funding has been put into schools and that it should be left to headteachers ‘to decide how to invest their funding.’ Adding rather lamely, “I anticipate many schools continuing to make tutoring opportunities available.”

To finish this week, a roundup of sector news.

For schools, the Education Policy Institute and Renaissance completed their series of reports into pupil catchup post-pandemic, looking this time at performance by gender, SEND status and ethnicity.

The findings reinforced the broad view that “the effects of the pandemic have not been felt evenly.” Girls, pupils with English as a second language and pupils in some regions, for instance, seem to have been affected the most.

Elsewhere the Adam Smith Institute became the latest body to question the viability of plans to apply VAT to private schools. “This is not a good tax,” it surmised.  ‘It runs the risk of being ineffective and could generate a loss of £1.58bn.’

Data analysts, FFT Education Datalab showed how absences worsened as pupils transitioned through the years. Ofsted extended its ‘Big Listen’ to children and young people up to the age of 18. And teaching unions called on the Pay Review Body to ‘act without constraint from government’ and consider an above inflation pay rise this year.

Over in FE this week, the Education and Skills Funding Agency (ESFA) published its promised overarching College Financial Handbook, soon to adorn every accounting officer’s shelf. The British Chambers of Commerce and the New Economics Foundation published new reports on skills, and the skills minister welcomed the latest data on apprenticeship achievements but acknowledged that there was still some way to go to hit the 67% target for 2024/25.   

And in HE this week, reverberations continued around the latest Sunday Times article about international student recruitment. “There are no shortcuts to admission and completing an International Foundation programme does not guarantee entry on to a degree course,” the Russell Group said sharply in its response.

The QAA published the latest in its policy series on quality looking here at the relationship with funding. It called on policy makers and sector leaders to work more closely on funding sustainability.

And the Sutton Trust called for the re-introduction of maintenance grants within a more progressive repayment system which, they argued, could help poorer students while remaining cost neutral. “The current student finance system does not work for students from the poorest families, and risks locking many out of higher education.”

But to round things off this week, consultation closed this week on the government’s proposals for a Bacc-style framework of qualifications for 16–19-year-olds in England known as the Advanced British Standard (ABS.) It’s hard to detect wild enthusiasm among the various responses.

The Headteachers body (NAHT) labelled the whole thing as ‘unimaginative,’ while School and College Leaders (ASCL) said the approach being taken is ‘fundamentally flawed.’ In similar tone, the Sixth Form Colleges Association said “a narrowly-focused consultation on a new qualification framework (the main elements of which have already been agreed) is not the right starting point” and the Association of Colleges (AoC) said ‘the proposals need to better reflect the fact that young people face a rapidly changing complex world and will need to embrace learning throughout their lives.’ While Universities UK said ‘it wasn’t clear that it would actually increase breadth of study and could have negative consequences on progression.’

Links to most of these stories below starting with the headlines.

The top headlines of the week:

  • ‘Rishi Sunak pledges to create 20,000 more apprenticeships.’ (Monday).
  • ‘Childcare shortage worsens as costs rise - report.’ (Tuesday).
  • ‘PE teachers retraining in maths to fill school gaps.’ (Wednesday).
  • ‘Majority of parents want ban on smartphones for children under 16.’ (Thursday).
  • ‘Cuts start to bite as DfE faces £1.5bn budget blackhole.’ (Friday).

General:

  • Backing small businesses. The PM announced a package of measures intended to support small businesses including investing more in apprenticeships, simplifying, and in some cases removing, many financial reporting requirements, and setting up a new Invest in Women Taskforce.
  • Shadow chancellor’s speech. Rachel Reeves delivered the Mais ‘economic’ Lecture this week calling for a new model of economic management built around what she defined as the three pillars of growth: stability, investment and reform.
  • Council funding. The County Councils Network highlighted a massive increase in both costs and demand in the provision of care services over the past decade, calling accordingly for ‘an honest discussion’ on what they should be expected to deliver in future.
  • Education in Wales. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IfS) called for reforms to GCSEs in Wales to be delayed, stronger monitoring of pupil performance to be implemented and greater focus given to teaching specific knowledge as it published a challenging report on education in Wales.
  • Childcare report. The charity Coram published its latest annual Childcare survey showing families struggling with the costs of childcare and the availability of places, and councils facing workforce recruitment challenges, leading to concerns that disadvantaged and disabled children could miss out.
  • Protecting children. The charity, Action for Children, published the outcomes of its review led by Professor Jay into the criminal exploitation of children, painting a disturbing picture of thousands of young people in the UK at risk of being manipulated by criminal gangs, calling accordingly for a clearer legal code and cohesive local and national action to prevent young people from being coerced in this way.
  • Debt awareness. The charity Debt Justice reported that 6.7m people in Britain were in financial difficulty as it published a new manifesto as part of this week’s Debt Awareness Week, calling among other things for government to ensure families had access to the essentials and remained protected from creditor harassment.

More specifically ...

Schools:

  • Teacher R and R. The National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) published its latest annual report into the state of teacher recruitment and retention in England, arguing that while there’s been some improvement in recruitment this year, at least ten subjects are likely to face shortages of secondary teachers with workloads, pupil behaviour and pay differentials all factors.
  • Post-pandemic performance. The Education Policy Institute and Renaissance published the final report in their series using Renaissance Star assessments to see how far pupils have been able to catch up post-pandemic, finding that girls seem to have suffered more than boys and ‘substantial’ gaps remain for SEND pupils, while the picture remains mixed for ethnic groups.
  • Teacher’s pay. Teaching unions issued a joint call to the School Teachers’ Review Body for ‘a fully funded above RPI inflation pay increase’ as part of a fair national pay structure along with the implementation of all Workload Reduction Taskforce recommendations, as it considers this year’s pay award.
  • VAT on private schools. The Adam Smith Institute followed work from the IfS, EDSK and others to conclude that the proposal to apply VAT on private schools raised a number of concerns including ‘a difficult to manage’ migration to the state, poorer options for some disadvantaged children and a likely ultimate cost to the taxpayer.
  • SATs 2024. The Standards and Testing Agency published its latest guidance on access arrangements and special considerations for this year’s SATs.
  • Pupil absences. FFT Education Datalab examined initial data on pupil absences, comparing Autumn 2023 figures with those from Autumn 2022, looking in particular at how far absence rates change as pupils moved up and suggesting that while these dropped for the youngest pupils they increased for older ones notably those moving from Year 7 to 8 and 8 to 9 and particularly for girls and more disadvantaged pupils.
  • Reading habits. The National Literacy Trust reported on its survey last year into the reading of comics by children, suggesting they remain pretty popular with 40% of 8–18-year-olds, boys more than girls, reportedly reading them at least once a month, finding them ‘accessible’ and ‘engaging.’

FE/Skills:

  • Apprenticeships. The PM announced a range of measures to help increase the number of apprenticeships as part of a package of reforms for SMEs, promising an increase in the apprenticeship budget to over £2.7bn from next year, a doubling of the levy transfer cap to 50%, and the full funding of apprenticeships up to the age of 21 in small businesses from 1 April.
  • Skill shortages. The EU Commission launched an action plan to help member states tackle labour and skill shortages in the short to medium term and hit 2030 targets, setting out five areas for action including more support for skills training, helping underrepresented people enter the labour market and attracting talent from outside the EU.
  • ABS response. The Sixth Form Colleges Association published its response to the government’s consultation on the Advanced British Standard (ABS,) challenging the approach and the timing of such reform and putting forward an alternative approach of tackling immediate resourcing issues first before consulting on a wider review of 16-19 qualifications.
  • Financial handbook. The Education and Skills Funding Agency (ESFA) published for the first time, a College Financial Handbook which will become operative from 1 August 2024 bringing together key requirements on financial management and accountability which, while not new, will provide a helpful resource.
  • Youth Skills. The British Chambers of Commerce published its first ever Youth Skills Manifesto sponsored by King’s InterHigh, outlining the importance of essential skills, both core and transferable, and making a number of recommendations around T levels (need promotion and clarification about their future,) and apprenticeships (need more levy flexibility and financial incentives.)   
  • Upskilling. The New Economics Foundation (NEF) argued for a National Skilling Wage, paid for by scrapping corporation tax in favour of tax credits, which could be used tackle UK skills shortages by creating a personal learning account for students and an upskilling fund for older workers needing to retrain.
  • E-Assessment in Technical Education. The Gatsby Foundation published a follow-up report on the potential or otherwise of e-assessment in technical education, confirming from case study evidence some of the previously noted challenges of applying this approach to end point assessment while suggesting further work could be done to make such a form of assessment suitable for apprenticeships as well as for T levels in future.
  • T levels. The Institute for Apprenticeships and Technical Education (IfATE) invited awarding organisations to bid for contracts as Generation 2 suppliers refreshing content and assessment for T levels in Heath, Healthcare Science and Science respectively.

HE:

  • In response. The Russell Group countered the latest Sunday Times investigation into admissions practices and international students, pointing out that domestic students were not being squeezed out and that universities were doing a lot to help fund the costs of undergraduate education in the UK.
  • Funding and quality. The QAA published the latest in its policy series on the future of quality in England looking here at its relationship with funding, acknowledging that funding pressures were making the maintenance of quality increasingly difficult but calling for a collaborative effort to secure funding, monitor its impact and, where appropriate, consider diverse income streams.
  • Maintenance grants. The Sutton Trust called for the re-introduction of maintenance grants within a more progressive repayment scheme which would see higher income students paying back more and would be cost neutral, as it highlighted the plight of poorer students in a new report.
  • Degree apprenticeships. The Office for Students (OfS) announced the results of the second round of bidding for funding to develop Degree Apprenticeships showing 32 universities and colleges successful with a further bidding round due later this year.

Tweets and posts of note:

  • “It's hard to run a great school if you're drowning in vexatious complaints, online bullying is spilling over into the playground, and half the reception kids are still in nappies” -@dmthomas90.
  • “My husband called this era of education 'Long Govid' this morning and it's set me up for the day” -@HughesHaili.
  • “Apropos nothing: strikes me that a lot of popular TV shows celebrate people's ability to make things - #TheRepairShop, #SewingBee, #MasterChefUK - whilst so much of the curriculum in schools ignores or denigrates such skills. Time to end the snobbery” -@RealGeoffBarton.
  • “Every time I say I’m about to go off on my long-service leave people ask where I’m going and the look of disappointment when I reply “multiple trips to the tip” is slightly heart-breaking” - @RobertCorp.

A selection of quotes that merit attention:

  • “This sets the scene for better economic conditions” – the Chancellor welcomes the latest fall in inflation.
  • “As we did at the end of the 1970s, we stand at an inflection point” – shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves sets out her plans for the economy under Labour.
  • “We’re more Misery Sisters than Chuckle Brothers” – Public Accounts Committee Chair Meg Hillier, on how she and Shadow Chancellor Racel Reeves are keeping Labour spending plans in order.
  • “While Louise Richardson was vice-chancellor of Oxford for seven years, there were nine secretaries of state for education, of whom the longest-serving was Gavin Williamson. Do I need to say more?” – departing Oxford Chancellor Chris Patten tells the Times Higher about the challenges of revolving doors in education.
  • “International students do not reduce the number of places available to home students” – Universities UK rebuts the latest Sunday Times article.
  • “We urge the government to properly review the levy rules and incentives to ensure the apprenticeship programme works for young people, key sectors and for employers" – the AoC responds to the government’s latest apprenticeship announcements.
  • “Fewer than one in four teachers in the UK are men: increasing that is not only a big opportunity but a chance to create more contact with men who boys can respect” – William Hague calls in The Times for more role models for young men.
  • “Oracy: As society changes so rapidly around us & we observe the rise of the robots, it is time to take the essential human skills of speaking & listening & move them centre stage" – Geoff Barton prepares to take on the role of chairing a new commission on oracy.
  • “This unimaginative qualification repackages A levels and T levels together but still forces students down one route or the other at the outset and is unlikely to help them fulfil their potential and prepare for adulthood” – the NAHT responds to the government’s ABS consultation.
  • “Our findings – with higher costs and dramatic drops in availability of childcare places – are concerning at this crucial time, showing the scale of challenge and the very real risks around this policy not living up to parents’ expectations” – Coram issues its latest childcare survey with a sharp warning.
  • “The department has recently made an assessment of the evidence behind the Turn on the Subtitles campaign and the current evidence is inconclusive as to whether turning on the subtitles improves children’s reading” – the education minister responds to a question in parliament about whether leaving subtitles switched on for children’s TV helps with children’s reading or not.

Important numbers

Not-to-be-missed numbers of the week:

  • 3.4%. The UK inflation figure for February, down from 4% previously, largely due to ‘a fall in the rate of food price growth’ according to latest figures from the ONS.
  • 1.8m. The number of active job postings midway through the first quarter of this year, down on last year but higher than for just before the pandemic according to the recruitment and employment confederation/Lightcast Labour Market Tracker.
  • 20,000. The number of additional apprenticeships the government hopes to see created following the announcement of its latest reforms, according to the PM.
  • 2.5%. The increase in apprenticeship starts for the period August 2023 – January 2024 compared to the same period last year, according to latest government figures.
  • 94.6%. The number of young people who received a suitable offer under this year’s September Guarantee, according to latest government figures.
  • 23%. The number of secondary schools in England at or over capacity last year, according to latest figures from the government.
  • 6.9%. The overall pupil absence rate for schools in England so far this academic year, according to latest government figures.
  • £212 The cost per head for children’s services this year, up from £120 in 2014 according to figures compiled for the County Councils Network.
  • £1.6bn. The amount that taxpayers could end up having to fork out for the policy of applying VAT on private schools, according to a scenario presented by the Adam Smith Institute.
  • £15,709. The average annual cost of a full-time nursery place for a child under two, according to a new report from Coram Family and Childcare.
  • 4.3m. The number of children living in poverty last year, according to the latest poverty statistics.

Everything else you need to know ...

What to look out for next week:

  • Education Committee witness session on children’s social care (Tuesday 26 March).
  • Ofqual’s Annual Qualifications Market Report (Tuesday 26 March).
  • MPs Easter break (Tuesday 26 March – Monday 15 April).

Other stories

  • Whose happy now? Some consternation this week as the latest World Happiness Report found happiness levels among young people falling in North America and to a lesser extent in parts of Western Europe. Various theories have been put forward including generational change, changing levels of life satisfaction and what the journalist Lucy Kellaway described as the rise of ‘the anxious generation.’ Either way, it’s a reversal of traditional norms that have tended to see the young as happier than the old at least in the Western hemisphere. Interestingly happiness levels among young people in Central and Eastern Europe rose significantly. Measuring happiness is of course not a finite art and the report comes with a mass of tables let alone happy looking faces. But in terms of overall ranking, the Nordic countries came out on top again while the UK slipped one place to 20th. A link to the report can be found here.

  • Technology milestones. Just over 40 years ago Apple unleashed its Macintosh personal computer, changing our lives perhaps for ever. The decades that followed have seen a steady stream of technological advances, many with a similar impact. The World Economic Forum has recently listed eleven such key developments from over the last four decades, starting with the creation of the world wide web in 1993 and concluding with the emergence of artificial intelligence in 2022. Others in the list include the emergence of publicly available Wi-Fi in 1997, the launch of Google in 1998, the onset of social media from 2004, and the iPhone in 2007. A link to the full listing can be found here.

Education Eye will be back after the Easter break.

If you find my policy updates useful, please consider donating something, however small, to help support its publication. EdCentral is a not-for-profit social enterprise and relies on donations to continue its work.

You can sign up here to receive Education Eye straight to your inbox on publication.

Steve Besley

Disclaimer: Education Eye is intended to help colleagues keep up to date with national developments in the education sector. Information is correct at the time of writing and is offered in good faith. No liability is accepted by Steve Besley or EdCentral for decisions made on the basis of any information provided.

EdCentral Logo