Steve Besley's Education Eye: week ending 19 April 2024

Welcome to Education Eye, a regular update detailing the policies and stories happening in UK education, compiled by Steve Besley.

What's happened this week?

Important stories across the board:

Pupil exclusions, school funding, skills system reform, the latest on the labour market and the economy, all have been making the news this week.

Here’s some detail behind the headlines.

Let’s start with pupil exclusions and a rare delve into primary school suspensions and exclusions this week from the charity Chance UK.

Building on evidence from data analysts FFT Education Datalab, the charity argued that “an expulsion or suspension at primary school can have a devastating long-term impact on a child’s life and their school journey.”

This would not come as a surprise to many people but the report went on to underline the fact with some significant figures. 69% of such pupils went on to receive further suspensions in secondary school while over 90% failed to achieve a pass in English and maths at GCSE. Permanent exclusions and suspensions were generally for disruptive behaviour or assault against an adult and were rare before Year 3.

Many such pupils were among the most vulnerable as the report highlighted and it went on to call for better early intervention to prevent what it called ‘a lifetime of struggle.’  

The findings came as the government released data on suspensions and permanent exclusions for the spring term 2022/23 showing an increase in both compared to the previous year. As ASCL commented, “this data unfortunately reflects what we are hearing from school leaders across the country.”

Next school funding and another interesting options paper to add to the continuing debate about school funding.

This one came from the Confederation of School Trusts (CST,) the body for school trusts in England.

Claiming that ‘funding is too unpredictable, not calculated against actual costs and has failed to keep up with changes in the school system,’ it called for a more coherent and fully implemented National Funding Formula, a new minimum-based funding approach for SEND and Alternative Provision, and an overall capital fund, although with a separate pot for school buildings.

Interestingly, it also called for a separate, criterion-based standing fund for what it termed ‘time-limited additional funds.’ In essence, a pot for specific and targeted costed needs that would avoid unbalancing formal funding streams. A Policy Premium Mechanism.

As CST chief executive Leora Cruddas summarised it: “we need to look at school funding as in investment in the society we want to live in, and we need to distribute it in a way that reflects actuals costs and ways of operating in schools and trusts today.”

On to skills system reform where having called for ‘a fairer, more efficient and more effective tertiary system’ last week, the AoC set out a comprehensive blueprint this week for how to get there.

It came in the form of a series policy papers covering pretty much every aspect of the FE and skills system from apprenticeships to the workforce, outlining the challenges in each case and a ‘to do’ list of recommendations to go with them.

As chief executive David Hughes explained “each one is a must-read for those with any oversight of the post-16 education and skills system.” That’s likely to include any incoming government this year.

And finally in this roundup, the labour force and the economy where the latest batch of data, generally covering the first quarter of this year, has been released this week.

On the labour market, the key phrase seems to have been ‘cooling off.’ As in this from the British Chambers of Commerce. “With the number of vacancies continuing to fall, and unemployment ticking up, there are further signs that the labour market is cooling.”

The Institute for Employment Studies described the latest figures on the labour market as “very poor all round.”

The big worry as the Resolution Foundation pointed out was the rise in the figures for economic inactivity. 22.2% of 16 – 64-year-olds neither in work nor looking for a job. The highest level since 2015. In their words, “tackling rising inactivity – and its impact on the public finances, the benefits system, and people’s wider health and wellbeing – is one of the biggest economic challenges facing both this government, and whoever wins the next election.”

As for the economy, two sets of figures stood out this week. First, 3.2%, the latest UK CPI inflation figure, down but not as much as had been hoped. ‘A bumpy descent’ as Bloomberg UK put it.

And second, 0.5%, the latest projected growth figure for the UK for this year from the International Monetary Fund (IMF.) Slightly down on earlier predictions but picking up a bit for next year.

In all, a continuing difficult climate for public services such as education.

On briefly to other news for the week.

MPs returned to Westminster this week and took part in a Westminster Hall debate on digital skills and careers.

As many acknowledged, while it’s important for schools and colleges to develop these skills in young people, it’s actually many of the older workforce that are struggling in this regard. As one MP put it “if my iPad breaks, I often ask my daughter, who is only 10, what to do, and she can fix it very quickly: she just does something and it works again.”

Closing the debate, Luke Hall, the new skills minister, ran through the work the government was doing in this area “to ensure that the UK has the digital skills to remain a science and technology superpower.”

For schools this week, Ofqual sent out its regular ‘pre-match’ letter to schools and colleges spelling out arrangements for this summer’s exams. Ofsted reported on the provision of RE in schools suggesting that too often “the RE curriculum is poorly constructed, poorly implemented and poorly learned.” It called for a more focused curriculum. And the government confirmed there would be no return to Progress 8 until 2026/27 following the data disruption during Covid but other accountability measures would remain.

Among various reports for schools this week, the Social Market Foundation pointed to low levels of numeracy in this country calling for financial literacy to be ‘embedded’ in schools from an early age. The NFER highlighted the challenges faced by many MATs when it comes to SEND provision. “The main challenges reported include inadequate funding for staffing, which is leading to recruitment and retention issues for SENCOs and support staff.”

The Education Policy Institute and partners continued their work looking into system performance across different school types, reporting on this occasion on the workforce and efficiencies. They called for a standard metric system to measure performance across all schools. That ‘would be really useful’ ASCL said. And Nuffield issued a ten-point response to the consultation on the Advanced British Standard with some concerns about ensuring viable routes for all.

And finally for schools a bleak report from Bristol University revealed that an increasing number are having to operate food banks.  “Research shows schools have increasingly stepped in as a fourth emergency service and are now the biggest source of charitable food and household aid for families struggling with the cost-of-living crisis.”

In FE this week, the big takeaway has been the launch of those system reform papers from the AoC but there’s also been an interesting report from Gatsby on staff recruitment.

For HE, the government confirmed the launch of the qualification gateway and personal accounts for the Lifelong Learning Account from next September. It leaves a phased rather than full scale launch of the Lifelong Learning Entitlement (LLE) from September 2025 as originally envisaged. 2027/28 is now big bang.

Universities UK launched a campaign to highlight the positives of going to university by recounting the experiences of those who had been the first in their family to go. From Beth Mead to David Blunkett, many had faced fears about costs and imposter syndrome but for almost a third ‘it was the best decision they ever made.’

The NUS which has been in Conference this week, reported that nearly 90% of students were now registered to vote but nearly a third were not sure who to vote for. The cost-of-living, health, jobs, education were among their listed concerns. “The results of this survey send a clear message to politicians: students are ready to turn up at the next election, but they are desperate for politicians to offer them more.”

Links to most of these stories below starting with the headlines.

The top headlines of the week:

  • ‘3 in 10 parents say school cuts hitting child’s education.’ (Monday).
  • ‘High Court upholds top London school’s ban on prayer rituals.’ (Tuesday).
  • ‘GCSEs: More than a quarter of Year 11s persistently absent.’ (Wednesday).
  • ‘School suspensions: England set for highest number in school year.’ (Thursday).
  • ‘Ministers fears universities may be ‘coerced’ by foreign funding.’ (Friday).

General:

  • Labour market. The Office for National Statistics published the latest (provisional) quarterly figures for the UK labour market showing it slowing, with the employment rate down, the economic inactivity rate up and real wage growth up.
  • Labour market commentary. The Institute for Employment Studies provided its regular commentary on the latest labour market figures, suggesting they were ‘poor all round’ and arguing that growth was being held back by a weak labour market and a need to look again at employment support and services.
  • Global economy. The IMF issued its latest world economic outlook, downgrading slightly growth projections for the UK economy for this year and next, albeit improving against Euro zone countries for 2025, and calling on policy makers generally to prioritise greater economic resilience amid continuing global tensions.
  • Youth mobility. The EU confirmed it was ready to open negotiations with the UK to clarify future arrangements on youth mobility covering aspects such as exchange programmes and other study and work programmes potentially including youth training and work placements.
  • Mental health. The mental health charity, Anna Freud, published a manifesto for political parties ahead of the general election, outlining a five-point plan to help tackle mental health among children and young people with a focus on giving young people a say, adopting a whole school approach, and applying the power of science and data.
  • Early years. The Fawcett Society published a further report on childcare and the early years looking on this occasion at how some other countries, including Australia and France go about it and pointing to four key design features including adopting clear evidence-based objectives, taking a staged approach, applying a cross-government approach, and placing children’s needs at the heart.
  • Pre-primary. The global children’s charity TheirWorld confirmed a big (40%) increase in 2021/22 in international aid for pre-primary provision round the world with much of it coming from the World Bank and G20 countries but arguing that it’s still below the 10% target and that HE still gets most of the international aid funds.
  • Going local. The Centre for Cities think tank called for a better evidence base to help local economic decision making, putting forward a new framework built around incentives, resources and capacity that could better support local economic development.

More specifically ...

Schools:

  • Summer exams 2024. Ofqual wrote to schools and colleges ahead of this summer’s exams with details on exam security, grading processes, support arrangements and results days.
  • Secondary accountability. The government issued details on accountability arrangements for secondary schools in England, confirming no replacement for Progress 8 until 2026/27 but continued use of other measures including headline attainment and destination data.
  • School funding. The Sutton Trust published its latest poll undertaken by NFER on school funding showing ‘increasing’ numbers hit by cuts with primary schools among the hardest hit and having to reduce the numbers of TAs and other support.
  • Funding options. The Confederation of School Trusts set out options for future funding for schools in a new paper, listing three priorities for reform including the National Funding Formula, capital funding and SEND/AP and calling in addition for a ‘standing route’ of dedicated funding in the form of a Policy Premium Mechanism.
  • Pupil absences. FFT Education Datalab examined the data on pupil absences for last term pointing to a slight improvement on last year albeit still above pre-pandemic levels and with concerns about persistent absences among Year 11 pupils.
  • Primary exclusions. FFT Education Datalab and Chance UK examined pupil suspensions and exclusions among primary-aged pupils, using evidence from defined cohort groups to conclude that most ended up with poorer outcomes at the end of secondary than other pupils.
  • SEND. The National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) reported on their recent survey among multi-academy trusts (MATs) about how they are supporting the growing demands of special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) provision, finding most pooling resources and expertise and calling for greater support to enable approach this to be extended.
  • System performance. The Education Policy Institute and partners reported on performance metrics across different school types looking here at workforce data and efficiencies and showing among other things higher levels of teacher turnover in multi-academy trusts (MATs) than in local authorities but with MATs likely to have more a more positive mid-year picture than other groups when it comes to financial health.
  • Ofsted on RE. Ofsted published a new subject report on RE suggesting limited progress since its last such report ten years ago with provision lacking clarity and depth and, in secondary schools, too much focus on exam content, calling among other things for schools to ensure a distinctive RE curriculum was in place and teachers were fully trained to deliver it.
  • Big Listen. Ofsted announced that it had commissioned two independent research companies to conduct surveys as part of its Big Listen with IFF set to work with sector leaders and other professionals and the National Centre for Social Research working with parents and carers.
  • ABS response. The Nuffield set out its response to the recent consultation on the government’s proposed Advanced British Standard (ABS) welcoming the focus on developing numeracy and other ‘employability’ skills for young people while not underestimating the challenges around teacher recruitment, funding and differential pathways.  
  • Immersive technology. The consultancy Public First highlighted some of the benefits of immersive technology for education in a new report, pointing to the potential for more engaged learners, new forms of assessment and remote teaching capabilities while equally acknowledging some of the barriers such as accessibility and lack of understanding but calling ultimately for teachers to be trained in its potential.  
  • Financial education. The Social Market Foundation called for financial literacy to be more heavily prioritised in teacher training and in primary schools as it published a new report showing low levels of financial literacy among young people.
  • Governance. The National Governors Association launched its latest Annual Governance Survey, inviting responses by 27 May 2024.

FE/Skills:

  • System reform. The Association of Colleges (AoC) set out an impressive blueprint for reform of the FE and skills system with a series of 14 different papers covering everything from apprenticeships to the workforce, each with detailed analysis and respective list of actions.
  • College intervention. The government updated its guidance around support and intervention for colleges, clarifying among other things issues around non-compliance and potential escalation actions.
  • Staffing. Data analysts SchoolDash along with the Gatsby Foundation examined teacher recruitment in colleges before, during and after the pandemic, suggesting that trends have now largely returned to normal with recruitment tending to happen in the first half of the year and subject areas like construction and digital remaining most in need.

HE:

  • 100 Faces campaign. Universities UK reported on those students who were ‘first in the family’ (FitF) to go to university, highlighting the positives the experience brought both them and often wider society and calling among other things for a return of maintenance grants to help such students in future. 
  • Graduate working. Prospects reported on its recent survey of graduates entering the workplace, finding that while many recognised the benefits of being in the office for some of the time at least, the majority (60%) preferred hybrid working but felt that managers wanted them in full time.
  • Student vote. The NUS published details of its survey of students ahead of the next general election reporting that while 89% were now registered to vote with the cost-of-living, health, education and housing were among their top concerns, nearly a third hadn’t decided which party to vote for yet.

Tweets and posts of note:

  • “Let’s tell everybody it’s a good job, it’s a great job. Let’s raise its status, so that people do want to become a teacher.” Is the profession too negative about teaching?” - @CharlotteSantry.
  • “What fascinates me is how young children in assembly respond when the adult says good morning. The monotone chant hasn’t evolved since I was at primary school 50+ years ago” - @rlrossi64.
  • “Had the annual ‘if someone dies in our exam do we all get 9s?’ from year 11 today” - @missdcox.
  • “I love April in Britain. One minute you’re walking along in sunglasses contemplating getting an ice cream, the next you’re having your face battered to pieces by hail. I wonder what weather will be along next” - @ SoVeryBritish.

A selection of quotes that merit attention:

  • “Britain post-pandemic jobs recovery has fallen further off course, with falling employment adding to the longer-term rise in economic inactivity” – the Resolution Foundation reacts to the latest labour market figures.
  • “Put simply, our appetite to become a more average spender has not been fully matched by a willingness to become a more average taxer” – the IfS reflects on the latest picture of UK finances.
  • “It is striking that nearly all young people born in late 80s have experienced some sort of instability during their school-to-work transition, even those who would ultimately be considered successful in their careers a decade after finishing school” – UCL reports on research into millennial entry to work.
  • “The result is that we are sacrificing the future of our children on the altar of our love-hate affair with the tech gods” – Academy Trust leader Steve Chalke reacts to Meta’s decision to lower the minimum age for WhatsApp users from 16 to 13.
  • “As we head into the summer series, I know many of you will be turning your minds to results days on 15 and 22 August, and to supporting your students in their next steps” – Ofqual sends out its annual eve of exams season letter to schools and colleges.
  • “There is no identifiable general optimal organisational structure for school groups. We cannot conclude that, based on performance alone, the MAT structure should be preferred to the local authority model” – the Education Policy Institute reports on the performance of school systems.
  • “SEND funding for all types of schools and local authorities has simply not kept pace with demand” – the NAHT responds to a new report on SEND provision.
  • “When my child was in reception, he got excluded 17 times. If I didn’t get a call by 10.00am I knew I could eat my breakfast” – one parent on her experience when it came to primary school exclusions.
  • “It’s a game for people who think that they’re clever and what to prove that they’re cleverer than everyone else” – calls come in not to mess with Scrabble.

Important numbers

Not-to-be-missed numbers of the week:

  • 3.2%. The CPI inflation rate for last month, down from 3.4% previously largely due to a slower rise in food prices according to the ONS but not as low as had been expected.
  • 4.2%. The unemployment rate for latest quarter to February 2024, up from 3.9% previously according to latest ONS figures.
  • 22%. The figure for economic inactivity figure over the latest quarter, the highest rate since 2015 according to latest ONS figures.
  • 0.5%. The projected growth for the UK this year, down slightly on its previous prediction last autumn according to the IMF.
  • £3m. The grant money being made available by government to help UK games companies develop their product for market, according to the Dept for Culture.
  • 2,570. The number of grades for GCSE/AS/A levels challenged last year, up 5.9% on the previous year with 710 (0.01%) changed as a result, according to Ofqual.
  • 8.3%. The overall absence rate for pupils for w/commencing 25 March, according to latest government figures.
  • 1%. The number of primary school teachers who reckon their pupils ‘possess adequate financial skills,’ according to a report from the Social Market Foundation.
  • 4,250. The estimated number of food banks being operated by schools, according to research from Bristol University.

Everything else you need to know ...

What to look out for next week:

  • Edge webinar on ‘Navigating the next decade of 16-19 reform’ (Monday 22 April).
  • Education Committee evidence session on the Disabled Students’ Allowance (Tuesday 23 April).

Other stories

  • Timeline of life. Are our life patterns changing or is the routine of life still pretty much the same? According to some interesting recent analysis from the ONS, it’s a bit of both. Young people are leaving the parental home slightly later than previously, aged 24 rather than 21, while women are having their first babies later, typically aged 29. Yet people still tend to enter the workforce in their early 20’s and make most of their money, apparently, in their 30s to 50s. This is how lives appear to be shaping up these days according to ONS census data: 
    • Age 29 – start full time work
    • Age 24 – move out of the family home
    • Age 28 – move in with a partner
    • Age 29 – having a first baby
    • Age 31 – first marriage
    • Age 36 – buying a home
    • Age 47 – peak earnings
    • Age 59 – providing unpaid care
    • Age 61 – owning a home outright
    • Age 65 – becoming a grandparent
    • Age 66 - retiring

A link to the full article can be found here

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Steve Besley

Disclaimer: Education Eye is intended to help colleagues keep up to date with national developments in the education sector. Information is correct at the time of writing and is offered in good faith. No liability is accepted by Steve Besley or EdCentral for decisions made on the basis of any information provided.

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