Steve Besley's Education Eye: week ending 24 May 2024

Welcome to Education Eye, a regular update detailing the policies and stories happening in UK education, compiled by Steve Besley.

What's happened this week?

Important stories across the board:

Obviously the announcement of the general election has been the main news story this week.

Education Eye will aim to provide occasional briefings during the election period to capture any important education announcements, before returning as normal once the new Parliament returns in July

For the moment, here’s the main education news from this week.

It’s been a story of recurrent themes with apprenticeships, international students and numeracy all topping the headlines.

Elsewhere, responses have started to come in to Ofsted’s Big Listen and the IMF reckoned the UK economy is heading for ‘a soft landing with a recovery in growth expected in 2024, strengthening in 2025.’ It’ll be interesting to see which Party is in power to claim it.

A few details behind these top stories first, starting with another brace of reports on apprenticeships and in particular, the levy system.

This week’s came from the CIPD/Youth Futures Foundation and the think tank Onward respectively and in each case highlighted a fall in apprenticeship numbers following the introduction of the levy in 2017.

As Onward described it, “there are now 10% fewer apprentices than seven years ago, and opportunities for under-19s have shrunk by almost a third.” CIPD/Youth Futures pointed in particular to the impact this has had on young people. “A 41% fall in apprenticeship starts for the under 19s,” most notably those from deprived areas.

Where the two reports differed was on remedies.

CIPD/Youth Futures called for a Youth Guarantee and ‘a more flexible levy’ as per Labour’s proposed Growth and Skills Levy. Onward reckoned “Labour’s policy is well-intentioned but misguided.” Stick with the current levy but improve it was their message. Improvements included fully funding 16-18 apprenticeships by removing the large business top-up and lowering the levy threshold so that more employers contributed.

Either way, in the words of the AoC, ‘reforms to the levy are now urgent.’

Next international students, where sighs of relief from the HE sector were evident this week as the government issued its response to last week’s Migration Advisory Committee report.

University leaders had spent much of the week building up their case for not meddling with the graduate route, and thereby restricting entry for international students, with both the Russell Group and northern universities penning letters to that effect to the PM. “Making further restrictions would not only run counter to plans to grow the national economy, but would be out of step with what voters want,” as Dr Tim Bradshaw for the Russell Group put it.

There were counter arguments as Nick Timothy’s article in The Telegraph last weekend indicated. ‘The benefits are dubious and the costs are clear,’ he wrote.

In the end the government stuck with the route while opting for ‘a package of robust measures,’ covering aspects such as recruitment agents and remote delivery, to ensure stronger compliance of the scheme. The latest reported drop in visa numbers may have helped.

On to numeracy where the charity National Numeracy hosted its latest annual National Numeracy Day this week with a host of activities and famous faces. It’s the seventh such annual day and counting.

The day started with new research from the organisation showing how anxious parents are about helping their kids with their maths homework. 17% of women said it made them feel like crying while 20% of parents/carers admitted that maths homework caused arguments with children at home. Many might recognise this.

One recommendation that might help is starting maths/numeracy earlier in schools. This was something that the Education Committee called for this week as it published the results of its inquiry into financial education in schools in England.

It called for “effective financial education to begin during primary school years to prepare children for the financial world in which they increasingly participate.”

It also called for more time to be given over to financial education in schools and for more teachers and support to be given to it, which left some unions bemused. As one wrote, “the government’s own grounding in financial education is clearly lacking as it does not understand the necessity of providing sufficient funding to run the education system.”

On to other news this week.

In schools, Ofqual reported that qualification prices had risen above CPI inflation over the past year but below inflation the year before. It left the regulator concluding “that they were broadly in-line with or below inflation when considered over a 2-year horizon.”

Elsewhere, the government announced a formal review of the Oak National Academy. Initial findings are due to be reported to incumbent ministers in July with any recommendations to follow in a final report a few months later. Primary school heads in St Albans launched a campaign to make their schools smartphone free for under 14s. “We encourage all parents to delay giving children a smartphone until they reach the age of 14, opting instead for a text/call phone alternative if necessary.”

And the NAHT, the Confederation of School Trusts and Headteachers’ Roundtable Group have all been among the bodies quick off the mark with their education ‘asks’ for the next government.

Teacher recruitment and retention, funding, accountability, SEND, and system resilience appear as core themes so far. And, as might be expected, there’s no shortage of solutions being offered. The NAHT, for instance, listed18, the headteachers’ roundtable filled the page with 24.

Nor should we forget, there’s also the little matter of this year’s teachers’ pay award due to be announced this summer.

In FE and talking of elections, the AELP followed the AoC by launching their own General Election 2024 pack for members. “We need AELP members to help ensure that the voice of independent training providers is heard, and that current and future MPs understand that economic growth needs investment in skills.”

UCAS called for views on a model for allocating tariff points for L3 apprenticeships. And the Education and Training Foundation and the Saïd Business School examined models of system change for the FE/Skills sector. “There is huge scope for developing awareness of what FE and Skills achieves, capturing this is organisational and sector theories of change,” they argued in a new report.

In HE, the Times Higher has been taking a detailed look at options for university funding. It includes some important contributions from leading figures like David Willetts and Alison Wolf and mixed views about whether immediate solutions such as index linked fees would help or whether yet another review is needed. Either way, most agree a review is unlikely in the short-term.

Elsewhere Universities UK, the British Academy and Royal Society have all been banging the drum for research, while graduate outcomes, domestic and international, have been the subject of separate reports this week.

Links to most of these stories below starting with the week’s headlines.

The top headlines of the week:

‘Ex-ministers warn universities will go bust without higher fees or funding.’ (Monday).
‘MPs call for urgent curriculum review to expand financial education.’ (Tuesday).
‘Heads call for end to ‘annual circus’ of teacher pay settlements.’ (Wednesday).
‘Next government ‘needs to fix systemic crises’ in schools.’ (Thursday).
‘Graduate route safe but ‘rogue’ agents targeted.’ (Friday).

General:

Starmer election launch. Sir Keir Starmer set out Labour’s election campaign by listing three reasons to vote Labour including bringing an end to chaos, the need for change, and the provision of a long-term plan to rebuild Britain.
Back to work. The government announced a number of measures to help get the job market moving including setting up a new taskforce to help fill vacancies in key sectors like construction, encouraging employers to tap into their local JobCentre, using AI to support work coaches, and promoting the use of Skills Bootcamps.
Economic Outlook. The IMF published its latest economic outlook for the UK pointing to a slight improvement in growth for this year but some ‘upward pressure’ on inflation later in the year and concerns about continuing economic inactivity, overall spending plans and the lack of investment in public services.
AI safety The government confirmed as part of talks at this week’s AI Seoul Summit that following the launch last year by the UK of the first AI Safety Institute, a new international network of such institutes would be set up ‘to accelerate the advancement of the science of AI safety.’
AI jobs. The consultancy PwC published an inaugural Global AI Jobs Barometer showing jobs requiring AI skills growing faster than other jobs and employers willing to pay a significant wage premium for those with the requisite AI skills.
Numeracy. The charity National Numeracy hosted its latest annual National Numeracy Day with a mass of resources, activities, links to schools, and famous faces along with a new survey on how anxious parents become when trying to help their kids with their maths homework.
Mentally healthy workplaces. The consultancy Deloitte published the latest results of its survey into mental health in the workplace finding many employees worried about their children’s, let alone their own mental health, calling for better monitoring, support and leadership to help with welfare in the workplace.
Early years. The Royal Foundation Business Taskforce for Early Childhood, set up by the Princess of Wales last year, highlighted in a new report the importance of prioritising the early years both socially and economically, plus the important role businesses can play in supporting employees and families generally.

More specifically ...

Schools:

Financial education. The Education Committee published its report into financial education in schools, highlighting its importance to young people of all ages and calling for more time in schools to be given to its delivery and for more trained teachers to be recruited.
Oak review. The government appointed LocalED chief executive Lara Newman to lead to lead a review of the Oak National Academy, looking in particular at issues such as efficiency, governance, accountability and efficacy, with an initial report due this July and a more detailed report to follow in September.
Education Manifesto (1). The NAHT launched its Education Election Manifesto listing three areas of ‘major crisis’ (Recruitment and Retention, SEND, School Buildings) along with a list of actions the next government should undertake, including reforming the pay structure, reviewing placements and services in SEND, and ending high-stakes performance measures.
Education Manifesto (2). The Headteachers’ Roundtable Group set out its Education Manifesto for the next government pointing to four areas (Accountability, Funding, Inclusion, Recruitment and Retention) that are currently proving ‘impossible to manage’ and listing 24 potential policy solutions.
Qualification prices. Ofqual published its latest annual report into qualification prices indicating that General Qualification prices had risen by 6.4%, particularly at advanced level, over the year to February 2024 but below inflation the year before, concluding that they continued to represent value for money.
Inspection response. The Chartered College set out its thoughts about school inspections as part of its response to Ofsted’s Big Listen, arguing that weaknesses in the current system included a lack of consistency in inspection and the high stakes nature of the exercise, calling instead for a peer model based around teacher professionalism.
GCSE Computer science. The government launched consultation on an update to GCSE Computer science to reflect recent developments in technology with some proposed content changes including the role of AI, programming and visual programming languages.
Phonics screening. The Standards and Testing Agency published a guide for parents of the phonics screening check which will take place for pupils in Yr 1 in the week starting 10 June.
Missing out on SATs. FFT Education Datalab looked into the extent of pupil absences for last week’s SATs, finding it dropping to below 2% for Yr 6 pupils for Monday – Thursday, compared to 5% typically in the weeks before.

FE/Skills:

Apprenticeships. The Onward think tank questioned whether a Growth and Skills Levy as proposed by Labour and others would help stem the drop in apprenticeship numbers, calling instead for a better system of incentives to encourage businesses to participate and for a fully funded system for 16-18 yr old apprenticeships.
Youth apprenticeships. CIPD and the Youth Futures Foundation reported on their apprenticeship survey, pointing to familiar concerns about the operation of the current Levy especially for failing to help young people, calling instead for a more flexible Skills Levy generally and an Apprenticeship Guarantee for young people.
Apprenticeship tariff points. UCAS called for views on its proposed model of allocating tariff points for L3 apprenticeships, based on programme duration and pass achievement, enabling the recipient to use the qualification for HE entry.
System change. The Education and Training Foundation and Saïd Business School examined some of the current challenges facing the FE and Skills sector and what was needed to ensure a responsive and sustainable skills system, proposing among other things a focus on teacher recruitment and training along with effective leadership, a high-quality learner experience, and greater public perception as the basis of a self-improving system.
Digital Badging. The RSA and Ufi VocTech Trust announced the launch of a Digital Badging Commission to help strengthen the development and use of digital badges that could be used by employers and accrediting organisations to recognise and reward learning and skills development
General Election 2024. The AELP launched a guide and toolkit to help members engage with parliamentary candidates on matters of skills and training over the election period.

HE:

International students. The government outlined measures to tighten up the system around international students including notably the use of ‘rogue recruitment agents,’ the levels of financial maintenance requirements and compliance standards as it endorsed the continuation of the graduate route following last week’s Migration Advisory Committee report.
Regulator’s fees. The Office for Students (OfS) published the registration fees for approved providers for 2024/5, based as before on FTE student numbers and ranging from £14,220 to £214,485, but with no increase for the year ahead.
Stern speech. Chief executive of Universities UK Vivienne Stern reflected on international students and other issues such as the value of degrees and the number of people going to university in a keynote speech to a UCAS Conference, providing robust defence arguments in each case.
Free speech. The Russell Group called for greater clarity from the OfS on some of the aspects of free speech including especially the complaints system, calling among other things for a full review of such procedures next year.
Graduate outcomes. The government published data on earnings and employment outcomes for graduates five years on from graduating in 2016, showing broadly that graduate earnings ‘increased at or above the rate of inflations since 2015/16’ although much depended on subject, prior attainment and where they lived.
International graduate outcomes. Universities UK and QS reported on graduate experiences and outcomes from international students who graduated from UK universities over recent years, showing many such graduates valuing the quality of their learning experience in UK universities and contributing ‘significantly’ to the UK economy, although welcoming greater career support in some cases.
TNE. The British Council and Universities UK outlined some of the risks that transnational education (TNE) providers face, citing six in particular including financial and reputational risks and pointing to the importance of partnership working around clear strategies in minimising such risks.
Leading on research. Universities UK highlighted the lead role that the UK plays in many areas of research and innovation across the world, calling for a more substantive 10-year rolling cycle of funding to support future ventures.
More on research. The British Academy and Royal Society joined forces to urge the government to increase funding for educational research particularly for longer term and more underrepresented issues.

Tweets and posts of note:

“An invigilator spoke to me today. Year 11 walks in, no tie, barely in uniform. Writes their name on the paper then settles down to sleep for the entire exam. Nothing has changed since I invigilated 20 years ago. But now, I call it self-harm (though it also harms the teacher and the school in these ‘measured’ days). How should we react to those who refuse to engage with their examinations?” - @englishspecial.
“My student has struggled with teaching the class but today she absolutely smashed it in front of the deputy and her uni lecturer. I was at the back of the class silently cheering her on. Couldn't be prouder” - @LeeBraganza.
“There's a big difference between talking 1-1 in a nice office with a teenager, to teaching in a classroom 1-30. Kids can be absolutely lovely 1-1 and then, in any sort of public environment, with friends or in the classroom, exhibit damaging behaviours. But behaviour matters” - @RogersHistory.
“Once again there’s more media school bashing. This time where RI schools have been transformed & become Ofsted Good schools. Where was the outcry when these schools were RI with poor behaviour….” -@Strickomaster.
“Secret Teacher: Worst part of the year ending? Students buying me presents” -@HeraldScotland.
“Today, I was showing a prospective parent around school. We went into reception and a little girl said “it’s my mummy’s birthday today and she’s 32! Great, I thought, makes me old enough to be your granny” - @kateowbridge.
“Can you all send your prayers my way please? Our internet is down at home and I have a 13-year-old boy. Many thanks.” -@DeputyGrocott.
“One of my colleagues never has any emails in his inbox. He deletes everything that day. I think he is a hero of our time” - @RosamundUnwin.

A selection of quotes that merit attention:

“It will feel like a long campaign” – Keir Starmer sums up the mood perhaps for many.
“Brighter days are ahead” – the PM responds to the latest inflation figures.
“There is an urgent need to upskill the UK workforce, given larger observed skill gaps than in peer countries, and surveys reporting widespread recruitment difficulties that are limiting output” – the IMF report on the prospects for the UK economy.
“Universities may stagger on until the election but ignoring the problem won’t work for five more years” – David Willetts highlights the political challenges around university financing.
“It would be a profoundly odd thing for an advanced economy like ours to try to pursue stronger economic growth while contracting the proportion of the population educated to degree level, especially in an age of technological transformation” – UUK chief executive Vivienne Stern counters the argument that too many people are going to university.
“No one can claim they are unaware of what the implications of a further restriction on international students are going to mean across the higher education sector” – Universities UK as they await the government’s decision on international student recruitment.
“In its current form, the Apprenticeship Levy is not working” – CIPD and Youth Futures add their voices to those challenging the Apprenticeship Levy.
“It has been eleven years since the computer science GCSE was introduced, and eight since it was reformed” – the government proposes some changes to GCSE computer science.
“We urge the Government to review the contents of the mathematics curriculum from key stage 1 to key stage 4 in order to expand the provision and relevance of age-appropriate financial education at both primary and secondary school level” – the Education Committee publishes its report into financial education.
“In short, we need inspection that is underpinned by teacher professionalism” – the Chartered College responds to Ofsted’s Big Listen.

Important numbers

Not-to-be-missed numbers of the week:

2.3%. The headline rate for UK CPI inflation last month, according to latest official figures, down on the previous month’s 3.2% but slightly higher than the 2.1% predicted.
0.7’%. Forecast growth for the UK this year, up from 0.5% previously, according to the IMF.
14%. The number of people in a survey who believe their living standards have improved this year, according to research from the TUC.
0.8%. The increase in output on average by UK workers in the first quarter of this year compared to the same period last year but at the expense of working an additional 2.9 hours according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR.)
14%. The additional wage premium that UK employers are willing to pay people with the requisite AI skills, according to new research from PwC.
£51bn pa. The amount that poor mental health across the UK workforce is likely to be costing employers, according to a report from Deloitte.
1%. The number of people polled who want government to prioritise reducing international student numbers, according to a survey commissioned by the Russell Group of universities.
900,000. The number of young people classified as NEET (not in education, employment or training) for the first quarter of this year, up from 812,000 for the same period last year according to the latest ONS figures.
£60.66. The average price of a General Qualification such as an A level for the year to February 2024, according to Ofqual.
28%. The number of secondary school teachers polled who felt that parents had become more disrespectful towards them compared to 17% in 2022, 19% in primary, according to Teacher Tapp.
405. The number of serious incident notifications reported last year involving children and safeguarding, down 51 from the previous year according to latest government figures.
47,000. The number of pupils likely to have been regularly educated off-site last term, according to FFT Education Datalab.
23%. The number of parents/carers who say that helping their child with maths homework makes them feel anxious, according to a survey from National Numeracy.

Everything else you need to know ...

What to look out for next week:

Dissolution of Parliament ahead of the general election (Thursday 30 May).
New Parliament begins (Tuesday 9 July).
State opening of the new Parliament (Wednesday 17 July).
Ofqual release of provisional entries for this summer’s GCSE/AS/A levels (Thursday 30 May).
Consultation closes on Ofsted’s Big Listen (Friday 31 May).

Steve Besley

Disclaimer: Education Eye is intended to help colleagues keep up to date with national developments in the education sector. Information is correct at the time of writing and is offered in good faith. No liability is accepted by Steve Besley or EdCentral for decisions made on the basis of any information provided.