Steve Besley's Education Eye: week ending 07 June 2024

Welcome to Education Eye, a regular update detailing the policies and stories happening in UK education, compiled by Steve Besley.

What's happened this week?

Important stories across the board:

Week two of the election campaign and education has remained an important part of the conversation, although more from other perspectives than from political parties.

One of the most interesting ‘other’ perspectives this week came from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IfS). It was described by one headteacher as “an eye-watering analysis of the serious lack of investment in education and the school estate over the past 14 years.”

The report examined school spending in England from 2010, concluding that the acclaimed increase in recent years had simply returned per pupil funding in real-terms back to that of 2020, following falls in the ten years before. In the words of the IfS, “no real-terms growth in school spending per pupil over 14 years is historically unusual.”

As the report says, there will no doubt be plenty of pledges, claims and counter claims during the election campaign but the key thing is what happens after the election. How will school funding look from 2024 on once the cameras are off?

For a start there are any number of immediate funding pressures. The IfS point to three in particular: a growing cohort of pupils with special educational needs, a decline in teacher pay relative to average earnings, and pressures on capital budgets, think leaky roofs, RAAC and more.

As to how funding might shape up post the election, the IfS consider three options: a real-terms freeze in school spending per pupil, a real-terms freeze in total school spending, and a rise in school spending per pupil in line with expected costs.

The first scenario might be eased by a projected fall in pupil numbers but as staffing and costs would remain would be difficult to manage. The second option would see spending per pupil grow in real-terms by 1.5% a year so below the broad current average of 2%. While the third option would deliver ‘a 3% real-terms rise in spending per pupil over period’ but would likely “require cuts in staffing numbers and/or school closures.”

As the report concluded there are no easy options for policy makers.

In a further report this week, the IfS looked at how the school system was performing, creating in effect a school report for an incoming government.

On the plus side, ‘England has one of the best-performing countries in terms of school-age performance.’ But on the must do better side, “there are significant inequalities at all stages of education,” absenteeism has increased ‘by almost two-thirds since Covid’ and there are high levels of mental health worries, particularly among girls.

All three issues, along with the growing demand for special needs support, mean that an incoming education team already has its work cut out.

And to add to the pressures, a further batch of manifestos released this week topped up an ever-growing urgent pile facing an incoming government.

The NEU, for example, published its manifesto, listing what it called ‘ten policy areas in need of urgent attention from the next government.’ The ten areas included school funding, SEND and Ofsted, with the NEU ramming home the point that these were ‘just the tip of the iceberg’ of things that needed tackling.

Elsewhere, the think tank IPPR reported on the public’s three priorities for childcare. These included better funding to stop nurseries closing, free after school clubs for primary-age children, and an extension of the 30-hours a week entitlement to children whose parents are studying as well as working.

The Russell Group set out the case for ‘an innovation nation’ as it re-launched its manifesto, calling on the next government “to take an ambitious approach and make the most of what universities offer, to help create positive change for the UK’s future.”

The CBI published its Business Manifesto for the first 100 days of a new government with a headline call for revitalising ‘Brand Britain.’ “We want to see a new Government deliver a bold pitch to investors across the globe, restore the UK’s competitiveness, and double down on our climate commitments and opportunities.”

And, Wellcome published its Manifesto for Science listing three priorities around funding, infrastructure and support. “Wellcome wants future governments to be ambitious for UK research so it continues to be the best place in the world to do science.”

Some of these issues cropped up in this week’s televised Leaders Debate although it doesn’t seem to have cleared the air much.

In a poll straight after the debate, You Gov reported that 62% of people surveyed found it frustrating, 42% found it interesting, 32% found it vague and 15% found it confusing. Most media headlines were critical, with the FT describing it as ‘a showdown of short tempers and frequent interruptions.’

Away from the campaign trail, there’s been plenty of other education news to take in.

In schools, the government published its latest data on the school workforce. It showed teacher vacancies up 20% on the previous year and a notable increase in the number of teaching assistants, up 1,800 on last year.

The government also published data this week on school and pupil numbers and other characteristics. Nearly a quarter of all pupils (24.6%) for instance were eligible for free school meals as of the start of this year. The data confirms current school roll trends. “The primary population is projected to continue to drop to the end of the projection period in 2030, whilst the secondary population is projected to increase until 2024 then slowly begin to drop.”

And while on facts and figures, the BBC reported a big rise in the number of pupils being home educated with just under 50,000 notifications being submitted over the past year largely in the North and Midlands. The biggest factor here appears to be mental health concerns but the lockdown effect is also thought to be an issue.

In other schools news, the NFER reported on its poll among teachers of what they considered to be the key education issues for the election with most highlighting school funding. ‘No surprise there,’ reckoned ASCL. Other top issues, particularly among primary teachers, were reform of Ofsted and support for SEND.

In a busy week, the NFER also reported on the continuing challenges arising out of the cost-of-living for schools and families. They pointed to the danger of it “becoming an entrenched and persistent challenge for pupils, families and staff, particularly in more disadvantaged schools.”

The National Literacy Trust signalled an alarming drop in writing habits among some young people with over 35% saying they rarely or never write in their free rime – ‘a troubling increase of 55%’ according to the Trust. Younger pupils and girls enjoyed writing the most and many were motivated at school but overall as the children’s author Malorie Blackman suggested “these findings are a definite cause for concern.” The NAHT reckoned the current SATs tests which ‘encourage writing to a checklist’ were partly to blame.

And the Independent Schools Council continued to raise concerns in a series of press releases about Labour’s VAT policy on school fees. “"We are particularly concerned about the unintended consequences of this policy, including adding further demand on a SEND system that is already in crisis," one headline ran.

In FE this week, the Gatsby Foundation announced plans for practitioner support networks for colleges working to implement the government’s post-16 curriculum reforms. And the AoC offered its thoughts on the reforms for an incoming government. Pause, Review and Reframe the vision, the gist of the advice.

And plaudits for Edge for reaching the ripe age of 20 as it prepares to host an important review of the Times Education Commission report two years on.

in HE, Wonkhe editor Mark Leach reflected on the issue of tuition fees suggesting a big Labour win could give it ‘cover for an early modest fee rise’ and ‘a fairer package for students and graduates.’

And still on election stuff, the HE Policy Institute (HEPI) kicked off a daily series of election related issues while Sir Chris Husbands examined some possible future scenarios for English HE. ‘All involve questions which are not remotely easy,’ he concluded.

Future funding remains a theme throughout for UKHE and equally cropped up in this week’s listing of top global universities.

This latest QS ranking saw four UK universities listed in the top ten where Imperial topped the list for the UK but equally where other universities fared less well, leaving the report to conclude that “the overall results indicate that British higher education is struggling in the face of increasingly urgent funding shortages.”

So another busy week as we wait to see what lies in store for education as the major parties prepare to release their manifestos.

Links to most of these stories below starting with the week’s headlines.

The top headlines of the week:

‘Value of domestic students almost halves at some UK universities’ (Monday).
‘English pupil funding at same level as when Tories took power, study finds’ (Tuesday).
‘UK universities face ‘irreversible decline’ global league table suggests’ (Wednesday).
‘SEND must be a priority after the general election’ (Thursday).
‘Teacher vacancies double in three years amid retention crisis (Friday).

General:

Business manifesto. The CBI set out its Business Manifesto with a number of recommendations for the first 100 days of a new government around investment and growth, strengthening UK competitiveness, and ‘doubling down’ on climate commitments.
Economic forecast. The British Chambers of Commerce pointed to a gentle recovery for the UK economy in its latest economic forecast showing growth upgraded to 0.8% for this year and average earnings also up but with inflation and unemployment expected to rise later in the year.
Council funds.The IfS reported on local council funding, noting that spending had ‘outpaced’ funding increases and demands in recent years leaving some “in acute financial distress” and leaving an incoming government facing difficult choices about immediate cash injections, longer-term reform or efficiencies.
Childcare. The think tank IPPR reported on its survey among voters in England about childcare, finding most reporting that the current system isn’t working for them and pointing to issues with costs and access, calling as a result for more support, more staff training and extended opening hours.
Online safety. The Molly Rose Foundation, the charity set up in the wake of the tragic death of teenager Molly Russell, set out a five-point plan for politicians to consider in their manifestos about online safety for young people, with proposals for a new Online Safety Act incorporating ‘an overarching Duty of Care’ and a new accountability regime for Big Tech.
AI. The Nuffield Foundation and Ada Lovelace Institute announced they were commissioning four new workshops to look into the impact of AI on the public sector looking in particular at aspects such as Civic AI, and AI and Public Health as part of a long-term research project on harnessing AI to support public services.
Digital plans. The British Chambers of Commerce called for an AI champion for small businesses, strengthened wireless network infrastructure and support in tackling cyber crime as it published its key asks as part of a digital revolution for the future.
Productivity. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) highlighted the UK’s problems with sluggish productivity in a new election briefing calling for increased investment in areas like skills and transport and a more focused industrial strategy to help stimulate growth.

More specifically ...

Schools:

School spending. The IfS published its briefing on school funding in England showing how far it had been squeezed in recent years creating immediate pressures for an incoming government in areas such as SEND and teacher recruitment and retention, with no easy options for whoever takes over.
School finances. Data analysts School Dash provided a further update on school finances post-pandemic noting an increase in spending on matters like energy costs, supply teachers and staff development but in-year balances appearing weaker generally.
Education report. The IfS published its report into school performance in England noting that levels of literacy and numeracy have improved enormously and compare favourably internationally but that special needs, mental health concerns, school absenteeism and attainment gaps all provide major challenges for an incoming government.
School workforce. The government published latest details on the school workforce in state schools in England based on last autumn’s workforce census and showing a slight increase in the number of teachers and a big increase in the number of teaching assistants, yet with a 20% increase in teacher vacancies overall.
Election manifesto. The NEU published its election manifesto listing ten priorities for an incoming government including reversing funding cuts, supporting special needs and abolishing Ofsted.
Election poll. The National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) published the findings of its poll of teachers about key priorities for the general election with the majority pointing to school funding, followed by reform of accountability/Ofsted, teacher recruitment and retention and SEND.
Cost-of-living. The NFER also called for more financial support for schools and an extension of free school meals as it published a further survey report into the impact of the cost-of-living on schools and families, showing that in many cases teachers were dipping into their own pockets to help out pupils arriving to school hungry and without requisite equipment.
Writing concerns. The National Literacy Trust pointed to writing being ‘in crisis’ as it published the results of its latest Annual Literacy Survey showing that the number of young people who enjoyed writing in their spare time, particularly boys from disadvantaged areas, had fallen to their lowest recorded levels.

FE/Skills:

Apprenticeship Levy. The IfS commented on Labour’s latest plans to transform the Apprenticeship Levy into a Growth and Skills Levy that would see some funds used to recreate Traineeships as part of a Youth Guarantee, suggesting that this could restrict how firms currently spent Levy firms let alone pay for training that they might have provided for anyway.
Youth Guarantee. The AoC issued its response to Labour’s ‘Back to Work’ proposals announced last weekend, welcoming the inclusion of a youth guarantee for 18–21-year-olds but calling for the extension of support for 16–18-year-olds as well.
Curriculum planning. Gatsby announced its support for new collaborative curriculum planning networks being set up to help college groups join together to work through the DfE’s post-16 L3 and below curriculum reforms.
Customer fees. City and Guilds announced that it was postponing its proposed Annual Fee in the UK to September 2025 and reducing the minimum spend threshold for UK customers to £2,500.
Edge at 20. Alice Barnard, Chief Executive of Edge, reflected on the organisation’s journey, work and aspirations as it reached its 20^th anniversary with a series of events and some thoughts on the future of education and skills.

HE:

Manifesto for innovation. The Russell Group called for sustainable funding and a commitment to international student arrangements as it re-launched its election manifesto calling for a big push on research and innovation with a focus on EU research, ‘deep-tech university spinouts,’ and Green R/D programmes.
Manifesto for science. Wellcome, the global research foundation, published its manifesto with a series of short, medium and long-term priorities for an incoming government focused on three aims including leading the G7 nations on R/D intensity, ensuring the UK was the most attractive place for research, and providing committed funding and infrastructure for long-term research.
Student votes. The HE Policy Institute launched a briefing series on ‘election-related issues’ with director Nick Hillman kicking off the series by looking at some of the issues around student voting and the level of impact this may have.
Future scenarios. Former VC Professor Chris Husbands reflected on possible futures for English HE post-election, suggesting in a publication for HEPI’s debating series a set of four possible scenarios, two being laissez-faire including evolving the present system or delivering the 2010 vision, and two more interventionist including a place-based tertiary system or a differentiated system, each with their own advantages and disadvantages.
Prevent. The Office for Students reported on provider Prevent data submitted for 2022/23 which saw the number od events and/or speakers approved as well as rejected slightly up on previous figures.
Funding questions. Alistair Jarvis, Pro VC at the University of London posed a series of questions on university funding for both government and sector leaders in a comment piece for Wonkhe, suggesting questions for government could include the adoption of targeted funding interventions, reductions in red tape and proactive reforms to the Graduate route.
Top ranking. The HE analytics body QS published its latest annual ranking of universities worldwide with four UK universities in the top ten behind MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) including in order: Imperial, Oxford, Cambridge and UCL.

Tweets and posts of note:

“Remarkable fact: Average teacher pay is about the same today in real terms as it was in 2001. Average pay across the economy is about 18% higher than in 2001” -@PJTheEconomist.
"British higher education is like the Titanic after it had hit the iceberg. It is fatally flawed below the waterline, but it is still floating, and many passengers have difficulty believing that it will go under. Yet the water is pouring in and rising. It has gushed right up past third class, flowed through second class and is about to lap at the doors of first class. During the next parliament, the lights will go out and the ship’s keel will break. By gsoh31” - @arusbridger.
“Does every school have one member of staff that announces the exact number of working days and hours till the summer breaks every time they enter the staff room?” -@Headteacherchat.
“I’m nearly 32 and still refer to people as “the year above/below me”. Does this ever end? -@_MissieBee.
“We're not getting a hot summer are we? Just tell me now and put me out of my misery” -@RichardVaughan1.
“Where do maths teachers go on vacation? Times Square” - @ThePunnyWorld.

A selection of quotes that merit attention:

“It was disappointing that tonight’s debate saw such a fleeting exchange on schools, which simply did not do justice to the full range of issues dedicated leaders and teachers are grappling with every day” – the NAHT responds to this week’s televised Leaders Debate.
“Leaders and lecturers have designed a highly effective curriculum that is exciting, ambitious, coherently planned and sequenced well” – Ofsted awards the Dyson Institute’s apprenticeships programme an Outstanding grade.
“These are tentative steps towards a system that could work” – the AELP issues a cautious welcome to Labour’s plans for levy reform.
“Policymakers must treat education as an investment in the future of children and young people and the future of the country, rather than as a cost that can be cut” – ASCL responds to the IfS report on school funding.
“The next government will inherit an education system that produces high levels of student achievement. The performance of 15-year-olds in reading and mathematics is well above the OECD average. But there are also fundamental challenges” – the IfS offer an end of term report on the education system.
“I put aside my desires of owning my own home, independence, a new car and holidays so that my child would have a good start in life” – The Guardian trawls opinions from parents about Labour’s proposed VAT fee on private schools.
“The downward trend of children and young people’s enjoyment of writing has taken us to the lowest level we have ever recorded” – the National Literacy Trust highlights concerns about young people’s enjoyment of writing in its latest report.

Important numbers

Not-to-be-missed numbers of the week:

+2%. The figure for private sector activity for the 3 months to May, according to the CBI’s latest Growth Indicator which described it as ‘the firmest outturn since July 2022.’
0.4%. The fall in the overall UK gender pay gap over the past year, ‘modest’ according to research from PwC.
37%. The number of workers who said they work through pain rather than take a sickie, according to a poll for the National Accident Helpline.
38%. The volume of UK research output published in the world’s top journals, ahead of both the US (35%) and China (29%) according to the latest QS rankings.
24,453, The number of schools in England as of January 2024, according to latest government figures.
468,700. The number of FTE teachers in state schools in England, up by 300 according to the latest (autumn 2023) data from government.
£46,525. The median teacher fill-time equivalent pay in state schools in England, according to latest government pension-based data.
60%+. The rise in the number of pupils with severe special needs since 2015, according to a briefing from the IfS.
22%. The increase in the number of pupils moving to home education over the past year, according to figures compiled by the BBC.
77%. The number of parents surveyed who supported extending free school meals to all primary school children, according to a survey commissioned by the NEU.

Everything else you need to know ...

What to look out for next week:

Manifesto week with the current scheduling being Lib-Dems (Monday). Conservatives (Tuesday) Greens (Wednesday) and Labour (Thursday).
Edge-hosted event on The Times Education Commission, two years on (Tuesday 11 June).Likely launch of Party manifestos (Wednesday 12 / Thursday 13 June).
NIESR webinar on ‘Five Key Economic Priorities for the New Government’ (Thursday 13 June).
New Parliament begins (Tuesday 9 July).
State opening of the new Parliament (Wednesday 17 July).

Steve Besley

Disclaimer: Education Eye is intended to help colleagues keep up to date with national developments in the education sector. Information is correct at the time of writing and is offered in good faith. No liability is accepted by Steve Besley or EdCentral for decisions made on the basis of any information provided.