Steve Besley's Education Eye: week ending 28 June 2024

Welcome to Education Eye, a regular update detailing the policies and stories happening in UK education, compiled by Steve Besley.

What's happened this week?

Important stories across the board:

The last full week of campaigning now just about complete and again, little new to report on education. As one tweeter put it this week, ‘can’t we just all vote now and get it over and done with?’

In fairness, Labour leaders did visit a school this week where among other issues it emerged that Sir Kevan Collins will be called on by the Party if they win, to advise on school standards. “I believe Labour will provide the new impetus our schools badly need,” he was reported as saying. The issue, of course, as he found in his former role as education recovery tsar, may well be about whether he’ll have any money to do what needs doing.

And later in the week, they, Labour that is, did reiterate their plans to create more careers advisers in schools and “to deliver two weeks’ worth of high-quality work experience for every young person at secondary school.” While the Conservatives are highlighting their policies on a visit today.

So some nods to education but the big news of the week has been the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) punchy review of the party manifestos.

Politico called it “the most important event of the election campaign” with the IFS delivering what The Guardian described as a ‘withering assessment’ of what the manifestos had said, or rather hadn’t said, about tax and spending.

The manifestos are riddled with promises of what the various parties would or wouldn’t tax or spend money on or what they’d review or look into but at the end of the day as the IfS explained, we’re really no clearer. There is as IFS director Paul Johnson famously put it, ‘a conspiracy of silence’ over it all. “How,” he asked, “would either party deal with backlogs in the court system, overflowing prisons, crises in funding of higher and further education, social care, local government? We have not a clue.”

His summary struck a chord with many. “Regardless of who takes office following the general election, they will – unless they get lucky – soon face a stark choice. Raise taxes by more than they have told us in their manifesto. Or implement cuts to some areas of spending. Or borrow more and be content for debt to rise for longer. That is the trilemma. What will they choose? The manifestos have left us guessing.” Let’s hope they get lucky.

The IFS haven’t been the only ones turning the spotlight on to the manifestos this week.

The NIESR (National Institute of Economic and Social Research) undertook a ‘macroeconomic analysis of spending pledges,’ concluding among other things that “in terms of meeting fiscal targets, neither the Conservatives nor Labour will have the Debt-to-GDP ratio falling until 2030/31.”

Elsewhere, the Education Policy Institute held an event to launch its comprehensive report on the various party manifestos highlighting the importance of education policies but recognising that for many voters, or perhaps it’s the media, concerns are elsewhere at present.

And the British Chambers of Commerce called for ‘a long-term sustainable economic growth plan,’ ‘call it an industrial strategy if you like,’ at its Global Annual Conference this week with skills a major priority.

In other election-related news, the Centre for Young Lives published a 10-point plan for an incoming government to tackle what it called “an in-tray stacked with problems” when it comes to children’s needs. ‘A one-off £1bn children and young people’s mental health recovery programme, part-financed by a levy on social media companies and mobile phone providers,’ was one of its proposals. ASCL called it “an excellent set of proposals.”

Moving on from manifestos and on to sector specific news for the week, starting with schools where the ever-busy IFS examined Labour’s £315m proposal for free breakfast clubs in primary schools in England.

In its view, “whether the programme delivers savings for families and childcare support really depends on the details of the chosen programme and how that policy is implemented.” And on that, like so much else, details remain sketchy.

Pearson published its latest intriguing School Report, a fascinating delve into the views of learners and practitioners on everything from the challenges facing both teachers and learners to future learning and aspirations. As managing director Sharon Hague explained,” within this report, many voices and emotions are expressed – from worry, to hope, to boundless curiosity.” An incoming minister would do well to have the Report as their bedtime reading.

In other news, Professor John Jerrim reported further on his work into the progress of ‘poor but bright’ kids suggesting that they hold their own while at primary school but fall behind by the end of secondary. He pointed to KS3 as being ‘a critical time.’

And Nuffield funded researchers reported on computer education pointing to concerns about the Computer Science GCSE in particular. “The current GCSE is focused on computer science and developing programming skills, and this seems to deter some young people, in particular girls, from taking up the subject.”

In FE, the AELP has been holding its Annual Conference looking at how the skills system might well shape up after the election and the future role of independent training providers.

And the Lifelong Education Institute published their thoughts on the manifestos concluding that “there is still a long way to go before they provide the foundations for the UK to become a lifelong learning society by 2030.”

In HE, the consultancy London Economics sought to make sense of what the various party manifestos had to say about HE fees and funding but found instead “a lack of detail on the specifics.”

Broadly they concluded, the Conservatives would carry on with the current funding model, Labour has yet to declare and no-one’s coming clean on how to deal with the sector’s wider financial challenges. As HEPI’s Nick Hillman put it “If the manifestos are meant to provide a clear programme for government, then they flunk the test.”

The SMF examined the pros and cons around international students. The title of the briefing, ‘Too much of a good thing?’ rather said it all.

The Quality Assurance Agency (QAA) published a new version of its Quality Code, complete with detailed key practices designed to support the principle that “providers take deliberate steps to engage students as active partners in assuring and enhancing the quality of the student learning experience.”

And the BBC reported on the case of exams being taken by fake students using AI and doing rather well. “The AI students' results were half a grade boundary higher on average than those of their real-life counterparts.” And apparently they weren’t spotted as being bogus.

And to round off this last full week of the 2024 election campaign and to end on a lighter note, many have enjoyed this story in The Guardian. It concerns an irate voter concerned about a tax on condoms. It turns out he got confused with non-doms.

Links to most of these stories below starting with the week’s headlines.

The top headlines of the week:

‘Manifestos duck tough choices on English sector funding, says IfS’ (Monday).
‘Warning over ‘endemic’ use of non-specialist teachers’ (Tuesday).
‘Politicians ‘not brave enough’ to admit English fees may rise’ (Wednesday).
‘AI can beat university students, study suggests’ (Thursday).
‘Pearson School Report: 1.5m children have difficulty engaging in their learning’ (Friday).

General:

Manifesto analysis. The IfS provided a comprehensive analysis of the various party manifestos, arguing via a series of briefings that when it comes to taxes, spending, debt and growth, we have been left ‘guessing,’ with the manifestos failing to answer the questions facing us over the next few years.
Analysis of spending pledges. The NIESR undertook a macroeconomic analysis of the main parties’ election spending pledges suggesting that neither major party would end up meeting current fiscal targets, and that largely due to investment through its Green Prosperity Plan, Labour would increase real GDP by 0.1% over five years while Conservative plans would see it decrease by 0.1%.
Workers’ survey. The consultancy PwC reported on its latest ‘Hopes and Fears’ survey covering 56,000+workers in 50 countries finding many positive about the future, about the possibilities emerging out of generative AI and about new ways of future working but less positive about the speed and extent of change currently, future skills needs, and some of the downsides of AI such as job security.
Child poverty. The TUC highlighted the issue of child poverty in a new research report showing there’s been a significant increase in the number of children growing up in poverty in working households over the past decade or so and calling on an incoming government to make sure work pays.
Manifesto for Young Lives. The Centre for Young Lives, hosted by former children’s commissioner Anne Longfield, called on an incoming government to extend free school meals to children in families in receipt of Universal Credit, commission an independent review into the impact of smartphones on children, and fund a mental health recovery programme, as part of a 10-point plan for children.
Online safety. Barnardo’s and Cease (Centre to End All Sexual Exploitation) called in an open letter for incoming ministers to tackle the issue of online pornography that can so damage children, calling among other things for stronger regulation and effective age assurance.

More specifically ...

Schools:

School Report 2024. Pearson published its latest major School Report based on a range of student and practitioner voices captured earlier this year and providing a mass of fascinating details from both sets (students and practitioners) on matters such as the role, challenges and perspectives facing teachers and teaching and the hopes and fears of the students themselves.
Breakfast clubs. The IFS looked into Labour proposals for free breakfast clubs in all primary schools in England, noting that take-up under the current schemes has been patchy but that there can be benefits with the Party’s proposed £315m budget for these by 2028/29 certainly doable although much may depend on whether other items such as extra staff would be needed.
Computer education. Researchers at King’s College and Reading University called for a review of GCSE Computer Science to incorporate wider digital skills and make it more appealing to wider groups of students as they published a new report pointing to a drop in the number of girls taking the qualification and the need to encompass changing digital skills.
Governance. The National Governance Association published an updated report at the end of last week on how far governance was building on its landmark ‘elements of good governance,’ finding a mixed picture in schools and trusts of established principles but continuing challenges and making a number of recommendations around planning and communication to help future development.
Maths and writing. The Education Endowment Foundation reported on two new pieces of research covering secondary maths and writing respectively and offering survey evidence and best practice in both cases.
Progress patterns. Professor John Jerrim reported further on his Nuffield funded work looking into the progress of ‘bright but poor’ children, showing that while they compare favourably with ‘bright but rich peers’ during primary education they fall behind by the end of secondary with KS3 seeming to be a critical stage.

FE/Skills:

Lifelong learning. The Lifelong Education Institute examined what the main party manifestos had to say on lifelong learning against their three criteria of ‘People, Productivity, and Place,’ pointing to a number of gaps and arguing that effective lifelong learning needs among other things better access and guidance, more employer investment and local focus.
Apprenticeship levy. The FT reported a fresh found of support from employer groups for Labour plans to reform the apprenticeship levy and to constitute it as a broader ‘growth and skills levy.’
International activity. The AoC called for the UK to rejoin the Erasmus+ programme and for a review of the current student visa policy as it reported on international activity across the sector over the past year, suggesting that it was ‘stabilising’ post Brexit but that many barriers, notably regulatory, remained.
LSIP issues. The Gatsby Foundation published a research report looking into how far Local Skills Improvement Plans (LSIPs) incorporated the issue of green skills, and in particular retrofit skills, in their plans, finding that not many did and calling for a clearer push from government and future strategy to help.

HE:

Loan forecasts. The government published latest forecast figures on student loans in England for 2023/24 showing that full-time undergraduates who started this year are expected to borrow £42,800 over the course of their studies with 65% expected to pay back in full.
Manifesto commitments. The consultancy London Economics put together a detailed assessment of party manifesto commitments on fees and funding in HE in England, finding a lack of detail making precision difficult but suggesting that the Conservatives would likely continue the current funding model, Labour was keeping its powder dry, and neither major party appeared to be coming forward with plans to tackle the sector’s wider financial challenges.
Candidate briefing. The HE Policy Institute published a helpful primer for election candidates on all things HE, including how universities are funded, the context around international students and issues around the cost-of-living for students.
Quality Code. The QAA published the latest iteration of its all-embracing Quality Code, described as “a framework on which to design, develop, implement and enhance the quality of provision,” built around 12 sector agreed principles now aligned to European Standards with accompanying key practices endorsing the role of students.
International students. The Social Market Foundation examined the current position around international students in a new briefing acknowledging their importance both to institutions and to the country generally but pointing to a growing but changing pattern of growth in such students and calling ultimately for a revised international strategy, a limit on numbers and reform to visa charges.

Tweets and posts of note:

“Could we not just have polling day this week instead?” -@p_surridge.
“Not only did I teach through the fires of Hell today, but at the end of the day a colleague said I looked like the blond guy in S Club 7. Hadn’t I suffered enough for one day” -@Xris32.
“We had a child fall over in a sports day race this week. Another child who was running ahead, stopped, turned around and came to check how the fallen child was. He then went on to complete his race. This for me, is one of the greatest things I’ve ever seen at a sports day” -@DeputyGrocott.
“Thoughts on "early leave passes"? One pupil asked "Can I go now?" to which another said "You didn't use it in music?" "Yeah, but I like music" -@ArmyMFL.
“At the start of the year we give all year 11 a ‘passport to prom’. In it there are a series of ‘challenges’ that they must complete throughout the year. Everyone that completes the right amount goes to the prom for free. Some choose not to and therefore choose not to go to prom” -@vicgoddard.
“You can either do Maths or you can’t. Never heard that said about Geography!” -@cappatel.
“Can anyone beat a member of staff turning up for a course a full year early?” -@dave_mcpartlin>.

A selection of quotes that merit attention:

“The manifestos told us much more about what they wouldn’t do than what they would” – the IfS offers its verdict on the party manifestos.
“'Folks, too many of you are going university” – Nigel Farage sets out his policy on higher education.
“The case of international student policy demonstrates the distortions that marketisation can produce in a sector where government policy inevitably retains a decisive influence” – the SMF investigates the issue of international students.
“Skills are a top concern for our members” – The British Chambers of Commerce calls for action on skills at its Annual Conference.
“Rather than paying for school fees each year, parents will opt to pay for a more expensive house close to an excellent state school” – the think tank Reform offers a counter argument on the VAT for private schools issue.
“Never underestimate the power of a good teacher – they are never forgotten” – the importance of a good teacher captured in Pearson’s latest School Report.
“While most of our children do OK, millions do not” – the Centre or Young Lives calls on a new government to prioritise children’s needs.
“Working in sweltering conditions can be unbearable and dangerous – so spare a thought for those in overheated shops, baking offices or toiling outdoors in direct sun” – the TUC calls for better protection for workers during the hot weather.
“She may be a megastar revolutionising the music industry, but once the excitement wears off, you will need a magnifying glass to spot the economic benefit” – Oh dear, Reuters reckon Taylor Swiftonomics won’t last long.

Important numbers

Not-to-be-missed numbers of the week:

2.5% pa. The amount of growth that Labour is hoping to engender in the UK economy, according to Sir Keir Starmer.
21%. The number of 18–34-year-olds relying on TikTok and Instagram for their information during the election, according to a survey from The Independent.
£26,000. The median real terms salary for working age graduates last year, down slightly although at £40,000 in terms of median nominal salary according to latest government figures.
EUR 67bn. The amount being provided by EU member states for national recovery and resilience for children and young people, according to the EU Commission.
567,000. The number of undergraduates expected to take out a loan in 2028/29, up 8% on current figures as the cohort size increases according to latest government forecasts.
3m. The number of children in working households living below the breadline in the UK, according to the TUC.
68%. The number of young people who enjoy school, up from 66% last year according to Pearson’s latest School Report.
7.1%. The overall pupil absence rate in schools in England so far this year, higher at 20% for persistent absence according to the latest government data.

Everything else you need to know ...

What to look out for next week:

Polling Day (Thursday 4 July).
Festival of Education (Thursday 4 - Friday 5 July).
2024 University Clearing system opens (Friday 5 July).

Steve Besley

Disclaimer: Education Eye is intended to help colleagues keep up to date with national developments in the education sector. Information is correct at the time of writing and is offered in good faith. No liability is accepted by Steve Besley or EdCentral for decisions made on the basis of any information provided.