Steve Besley's Education Eye: week ending 02 August 2024

Welcome to Education Eye, a regular update detailing the policies and stories happening in UK education, compiled by Steve Besley.

What's happened this week?

Important stories across the board:

Education Eye will appear briefly over the summer break as news dictates.

A grim start to the summer break.

Away from the unspeakable tragedy at a children’s event, much of the news this week has focused on the state of the public finances, just how bad they actually were or are, and who’s most responsible for the £22bn black hole that’s been revealed.

The Chancellor set out her perspective in a Statement to MPs at the start of the week, with further details in an accompanying audit of unfunded pledges speedily conducted by the Treasury.

“This is not the statement I wanted to give today,” she said “and these are not the decisions I wanted to make. But they are the right decisions in difficult circumstances.”

It was all presented, as many commentators noted, in a suitably school teacherish, finger-wagging way.” A superb disappointed headteacher act,” the description from the Independent’s John Rentoul.

Broadly those ‘difficult’ decisions involved scrapping a number of ‘commitments made by the previous government that were unfunded,’ by applying the now adopted sniff test of ‘If we can’t afford it, we cannot do it.’

So out went Rishi’s Advanced British Standard qualification and the Rwanda scheme and Boris’s hospital building programme along with measures on social care and the winter fuel payments, among others.

The aim, as the Chancellor explained, was ‘to reduce the pressure on the public finances by £5.5bn this year and over £8bn next year.’

Pay awards for teachers among others were endorsed but departments would have to find ‘2% savings in their back-office costs by the autumn Budget.’

And talking of the Budget, which was confirmed for October 30, the Chancellor went on to announce a number of other measures to tighten things up.

These included setting three-year budgets for depts with the latest multi-year Spending Review formally launched and completing next spring, the creation of a new Office of Value for Money and closer working with the Office for Budget Responsibility.

“It will take time,” she concluded. “It won’t happen overnight” but it will ‘fix the foundations.’ At least the sun’s shining.

Debate will continue over the coming months about the figures, about who’s to blame, about the impact of the measures and about where to find efficiencies. As Paul Johnson of the IfS said ‘Rachel Reeves is within her rights to feel somewhat aggrieved… but not all of what we heard should have come as a great surprise.’

For education, perhaps four things stand out.

First, while the Budget on October 30 will obviously be important, it’s worth noting longer term the remit provided for the major Spending Review. This is because it offers an insight into how the government is expecting depts like education to operate in future given the current tight financial circumstances.

Here’s the text. “The government will use the Spending Review to change the way public services are delivered by embedding a mission-led approach, driving forward public service reform and making the best use of technology to better deliver services.” So lots of reviews, encouraging flexible working for teachers rather than major reforms, that sort of thing, a focus on opportunity as the big mission and plenty of references to the power of technology.

Second, making efficiencies will be hard in the short term as the dept will still be running for a while on its current budget, set in 2021 before inflation hit. The Treasury forecast the impact of inflation at 15% over the three years. That wasn’t in the 2021 calculations.

Scrapping the Advanced British Standard will save £185m next year. Helpful, but it also means the commitment to extra hours for 16+ study programmes would go as well. In other words, efficiency savings often have knock-on effects elsewhere.

Third, on the pay award, “equivalent to an increase of over £2,500 for the average teacher” as the document explained, it seems likely that the dept will have to absorb some of the costs. So where does it leave things for future settlements?

The NEU, for instance, described the award as “a necessary first step in reversing the real terms cuts inflicted upon the profession over the last 14 years.” Junior doctors are already considering their next steps. What then about teachers? The government will point to wider benefits such as the removal of PRP, options for more flexi working and a promised earlier timeline for the process, but will that be enough?

And fourth and finally, on that contentious VAT scheme for private school fees, the Treasury had further details in the form of a technical paper this week.

Fees will become applicable from this week to avoid pre-payments while the difficult issue of what to do about those in the private sector with Education, Health, and Care Plans is likely to involve a reclaim system.

The scheme remains controversial with for example the Independent Schools Council complaining that “the draft legislation was published before consultation with independent schools.”

The government suggests that “the number of pupils who may switch schools as a result of these changes represents a very small proportion of overall pupil numbers in the state sector.” And “after recovery of VAT on their costs, on average, the government expects schools to be liable for VAT amounting to around 15% of their fee income. It will be a commercial decision for individual schools how they fund this additional cost,” it added.

On to the rest of the education news this week.

In schools, with the DfE reportedly raising the risk level on SEND provision, a further report this week added its voice to claims of “a broken system.” The report from Child of the North and the Centre for Young Lives said families were ‘at their wits’ ends’ and that ‘tackling the delays, the poor early identification, and the postcode lottery’ should be a priority for the new government.

In other news, leading bodies have been blitzing us with their annual reports and accounts this week.

They’ve included both Ofqual and the Standards and Testing Agency. Both pointed to a busy year of getting things back to normal after the pandemic. As Ofqual’s Chair put it, “the return to normal for examinations and assessments in 2023 was an important achievement in the recovery from COVID-19 for both the education sector and the nation as a whole.”

There’s plenty of data and summaries in the reports but as they cover 2023/24, they are very much of their time with the new government now firmly in place.

In FE, the UCU picked up the baton for FE which missed out on the Chancellor’s pay award this week. “We therefore urge the Chancellor to rectify this deeply damaging neglect of further education in her first full Budget by properly investing.”

According to the AoC “The next meeting between FE employers and unions is in September and that looks likely to be the start of a set of difficult negotiations “

WorldSkills UK tied the knot with UVAC, the uniformed services again did well in the latest listing of top apprenticeship employers, and ESFA added its annual report and accounts for 2023/24 to the growing pile this week. The CE pointed to high levels of performance following a year of transition.

“We achieved a success rate of 99.9% on the accuracy and timeliness of the 571,977 individual payments we made to more than 25,000 providers.” As he said, ‘a terrific achievement.’

In HE, King’s College Policy Institute reported on its latest big survey of attitudes among graduates, parents and the public towards university.

Most, especially graduates, continue to value the experience – “eight in 10 say their degree was worth it for the overall experience and benefits” - but there’s a notable swing towards more skills-based courses and concerns among parents and the public about costs and value for money. Interestingly public responses favoured different feel levels for different courses.

The OfS was another to publish its latest annual report and accounts for 2023/24 pointing to another year “of significant activity and change” ahead of the recent changes from the new government that will bring yet another year of activity and change.

The Office’s likely shift in focus towards ensuring the financial sustainability of the sector will be one of the things to watch in the coming months. Particularly with the Times Higher reporting this week on ‘a difficult recruitment round’ for some universities.

Elsewhere, the OfS set out a new condition of registration to help tackle harassment and sexual misconduct affecting students.

The new condition comes in next August and includes the scrapping of non-disclosure agreements. Something that’s greatly pleased the NUS given its been campaigning against their use for seven years.

“An incredible win,” it exclaimed before adding, “together we made sexual harassment and violence a priority across higher education and the government has heard us loud and clear”.

A week that will be hard to forget for many reasons.

Links to most of these stories below starting with the week’s headlines.

The top headlines of the week:

‘School strikes ‘now unlikely’ after 5.5% pay offer’ (Monday).
‘SEND pressures become ‘top tier’ DfE risk’ (Tuesday).
‘Universities in England face fines if they fail to protect students from harassment’ (Wednesday).
‘Government urged to protect teachers as misconduct claims rise’ (Thursday).
‘Government shelves £1.3bn UK tech and AI plans’ (Friday).

General:

Chancellor’s Statement. The Chancellor set out what she described as ‘a £22bn hole in the public finances’ in a Statement to MPs arguing that this had been inherited from the previous government, outlining a number of efficiency measures from social care to education to dept efficiencies to help remedy this but leaving further details to an October Budget and multi-year Spending Review.
Treasury audit. The Treasury published its audit of existing public spending commitments, in many cases unfunded, to accompany the Chancellor’s Statement, running through the immediate savings that the government was intending to make before setting out the arrangements for the Budget, the Spending Review and future fiscal framework.
Economic picture. The Bank of England announced a finely poised cut in the Bank Rate as it pointed to a projected slight increase in inflation in the second half of the year along with weak growth and a rise in unemployment.
Living Wage. The government issued its latest remit letter to the Low Pay Commission calling on it to recommend a National Living Wage, along with National Minimum Wage rates for 18-20 yr olds, that should apply from next April and to take into account the cost-of-living and the need to the close age gap in its deliberations.
Health at work. The IPPR think tank published the final interim report from its cross-party Commission on Health and Prosperity calling for compulsory reporting, like climate emissions reporting, on worker health as it published stats showing a rise in productivity loss to companies as employees worked through sickness often slowing productivity in the long run.
Consumer confidence. The consultancy firm PwC published the results of its Consumer Sentiment Survey conducted in the aftermath of the general election and showing a significant increase in consumer confidence generally but particularly among those aged 65+ and lower socioeconomic groups with fashion, food, family treats and last-minute holidays among the top spending priorities.
Top job spots. Winchester, followed by Warrington, St Albans, Chelmsford and Sevenoaks emerged as the top places in the UK for job opportunities, with good average pay, housing and people’s wellbeing all factors according to a survey from HR software business Ciphr.

More specifically ...

Schools:

Teachers’ pay. The government confirmed that it would meet this year’s pay award for teachers in full as well as accept other recommendations to improve conditions for teachers including removing the PRP requirement.
Pay Body report. The School Teachers’ Review Body (STRB) published its full report outlining many of the issues around teacher recruitment and retention, working conditions and comparative earnings potential, concluding by recommending among other things an across the board 5.5% pay increase, the creation of a long-term workforce plan and the opportunity for more flexible working patterns.
VAT consultation. The government published draft legislation and a Technical Consultation on the application of 20% VAT on boarding and private school fees which are intended to become applicable on fees paid from 29 July 2024 and which the government is urging such schools not to pass on in full.
ABS. The Chancellor confirmed that as part of the efficiencies listed in her Statement to MPs on public spending that the government would drop former government plans to introduce an Advanced British Standard (ABS) qualification.
Academy trust handbook. The ESFA published the latest version of the Academy trust handbook incorporating “a small number of changes” including on finance leasing, internal audit on revenue income over £50m pa, and estates management.
Missing mothers. The New Britian Project think tank highlighted the growing number of young mothers leaving teaching because of the exhausting hours and lack of flexi working, calling for better support, childcare places and flexible working arrangements generally.
Tackling SEND. The Centre for Young Lives and Child of the North published a new report further highlighting inadequacies in the current SEND system which often leave families in despair, pointing to examples of where good practice is operating and calling among other things for better training, partnership work and early identification tools as ways forward.
Annual report. Ofqual published its annual report and accounts for 2023/24 which saw a change of leadership, an office move, a big focus on the return to pre-pandemic grading for exams and assessments, the development of new qualifications such as GCSE British Sign Language, and a range of other research and developmental activity.
Annual report. The Standards and Testing Agency published its annual report and accounts for 2023/24 pointing to a ‘smoothed out’ delivery of KS tests for summer 2023 despite some initial unease over the KS2 reading test, continuing work on developing digital assessments, and expenditure ‘in line with forecast costs.’

FE/Skills:

Top apprenticeship employers. The government published the latest annual listing of top apprenticeship employers with Army once again heading the list, followed by BT, the Royal Navy and Royal Airforce.
Annual report. The ESFA published its annual report and accounts for 2023/24 which, following a year of transition, saw it refocused around delivering funding certainty, quality support, and assurance with a claimed high success rate in each.
Skills matters. Personnel Today reflected on some of the many skills priorities facing the new skills body, Skills England, highlighting both immediate needs around local skills and skills gaps as well as future skills planning, non-levy training and partnership working.
Skills partnership. WorldSkills UK announced that it had formally tied the knot with the University Vocational Awards Council (UVAC.)
Manufacturing. The manufacturing body, Make UK, published its latest annual facts and figures picture on the sector showing that it the N.W. remains the leading manufacturing area, the US is the top export destination when it comes to manufacturing, and overall, manufacturing contributed £217bn in output to the economy last year.

HE:

University challenge. King’s College Policy Institute published the results of its latest major survey into the attitudes towards university among graduates, parents and the public, reflecting a range of views about the cost, benefit and value of the university experience with graduates broadly positive about the whole thing, parents slightly more mixed and often favouring vocational qualifications, and the public concerned about the cost and build up of debt.
Student protection. The OfS followed up its consultation last year on harassment and sexual misconduct in English HE by confirming that it intended to go ahead with a new condition of registration ensuring that by August 2025 institutions have appropriate training and processes in place for such matters including the scrapping of the use of non-disclosure agreements (NDAs.)
Student loans. The Student Loans Co confirmed that an interest rate cap of 8% would be applied to all Plan 2, Plan 5 and Post Grad student loans this August.
Young carers. UCAS published the latest in its Next Steps series looking on this occasion at the experience of young carers who often face considerable challenges progressing to HE but who can now include their responsibilities on UCAS forms, calling for flexible timetabling and inclusive practices to become more widespread among institutions.
Annual report. The Office for Students (OfS) published its annual report and accounts for 2023/24, reporting on its work on quality and standards, on supporting students and on overseeing sector financial sustainability but all prepared before the recent changes announced by the new government.
2024/25 funding. The OfS confirmed the funding breakdown for 2024/25 following guidance issued by government in its letter earlier this year, setting out the strategic priorities and allocations for the year ahead which included provision for a funding increase for high-cost courses but a decrease for Uni Connect.
Student contracts. The OfS reported that three institutions had now made changes to the terms and conditions of their student contracts, largely clarifying details, terminology and expectations, following referrals to National Trading Standards
Stepping up for change. Wonkhe and Advance HE reported on their three recent roundtables with senior leaders looking at the nature of leadership at times of change and challenge, identifying a number of key themes that emerged such as the speed of response and making the case for time for reflection and support.

Tweets and posts of note:

“Teachers are getting a well-deserved pay rise. The Conservatives left the profession overstretched and undervalued. We said we’d change that, and we meant it” -@bphillipsonMP.
“I must admit, I’m feeling quite stressed about September at the moment. I keep seeing other teachers that have been in school nearly every day since the start of the holidays and I’m worried I’m not doing enough to be prepped for September” - @MISSNTEACHING.
“There are so many green flags in @bphillipsonMP's first three weeks in office. Which is why this blindspot in the AGQ pause and review is so frustrating and bewildering. As it stands, schools and colleges won't know what AGQs or AAQs they can offer next September” -@Tom_Middlehurst.
“This year only 30% of primary teachers said their pupils had an end-of-year trip, compared to 38% last year. Cost of living (and transporting) likely playing into that” -@miss_mcinerney.
“While other professionals might require weeks to prepare for a presentation, teachers deliver 5+ presentations every day” -@Headteacherchat.
“My nearly-8-year-old has just informed me I have 14 years left until I’m elderly. Who says spending time with kids makes you feel young?’ -@SamLGibbs.
“How old are children when you actually get to sit down and relax for 5 minutes??” -@Katy_primary 97.

A selection of quotes that merit attention:

“Where they presided over recklessness, I will bring responsibility” – the Chancellor sets out to tackle the ‘black hole’ in the public finances.
“The disconnect between the generosity of departmental budgets and what they are being asked to deliver has been clear for some time, even if it was roundly ignored during the election campaign” – the IfS on the blame game over the nation’s finances.
“An investment in them is an investment in the next generation” – the education secretary heralds the pay rise for teachers.
“Another clear sign that the new government was serious about resetting the relationship with the profession” – the NAHT welcomes the pay award.
“The UK is the (literal) sick man of Europe” – the think tank IPPR reports on the rising cost of employee sickness.
“This is an incredible win for NUS, and is down to the tireless work of NUS Women’s Campaign, feminist societies and women’s officers from students’ unions across the country” – the NUS heralds the latest guidelines from the OfS on student protection from harassment and sexual misconduct.
“The government does not expect fees to go up by 20% as a result of this policy change” – the government lays out the ground rules for the application of VAT on private school fees.
“Throughout my career – both in government and in the wider research and policy community – I’ve seen first-hand the power of evidence to transform policy and practice for the better” – Gavin Kelly prepares to take up the role of CEO at the Nuffield Foundation from January 2025.

Not-to-be-missed numbers of the week:

£22bn. The size of the ‘black hole’ in the public finances, as identified by the Chancellor.
£8.1bn. The ‘efficiencies’ the government is looking to make next year as part of its drive to stabilise finances, according to the Chancellor.
2%. The reduction in admin budgets for public spending depts, called for by the Chancellor.
4. The number of new quangos announced by the government over the last week, according to one commentator on Quango Watch.
80%. The overall participation rate of employees in Great Britain in a workplace pension, similar to last year before according to latest government figures.
87%. The number of graduates who reckon they’d choose to go to university again if given the choice, according to a survey from King’s College.
2.6M. The number of jobs provided by UK manufacturing, according to the manufacturer’s body Make UK.
£49,000+. The median salary for teachers following this year’s pay award, according to government figures.
20%. The number of people surveyed who said they intended to spend more this Christmas than last, according to PwC’s consumer sentiment survey (with apologies for the Christmas mention already).

Everything else you need to know ...

What to look out for next week

MPs’ summer break (Tuesday 30 July – Monday 2 September).

Steve Besley

Disclaimer: Education Eye is intended to help colleagues keep up to date with national developments in the education sector. Information is correct at the time of writing and is offered in good faith. No liability is accepted by Steve Besley or EdCentral for decisions made on the basis of any information provided.