Steve Besley's Education Eye: week ending 23 August 2024

Education Eye will appear briefly over the summer break as news dictates. 

On to GCSE and L2 results this week. 

All undertaken by a group of students who have had a very difficult time coping with various lockdowns and post-Covid recovery.

So how have they fared?

In the words of the regulator, Ofqual, 'grading has continued as normal this summer and standards have been maintained from summer 2023'.

For England at least, 67.4% of grades were at grade 4 (old C) and above, and 21.7% at 7 and above. Similar to last year and comparable to 2019. Some subjects recruited well, including English Language and Business Studies, but arts subjects less so. Selective secondary schools did well; resits remain a worry; females outperformed males; regional inequalities were again exposed; and new Tech Awards were awarded for the first time in large numbers.

As the education secretary tweeted “Congratulations to all students getting results today, and a huge thank you to the incredible teachers and staff who’ve supported you along the way. You’ve shown amazing resilience, overcoming challenges and you should be proud of all you’ve achieved. Well done”.

Those are the headlines but what are the key talking points this year? 

Here are four:

First, the issue of regional attainment gaps, evident in last week’s A level results, and reinforced in this year’s GCSE results. 

Many people argue that trends towards disadvantage begin much earlier in children’s lives, but it’s certainly evident by age 16. For instance, 17.8% of GCSE candidates in the North East achieved grades of 7 or above this summer compared to 28.5% in London or 24.7% in the South East. In essence, the North-South attainment gap is wider than before the pandemic.

Catherine McKinnell, the minister on the media round for GCSE morning, was quick to acknowledge the issue. “While this is a moment to celebrate, I am deeply concerned about the inequalities in our education system with where you live and what type of school you attend still being too big an influence on your opportunities”.

She pointed to the importance of the curriculum review, but a wider debate about inequalities seems likely to follow this autumn.

Second, the question of subject choices for students, and how far some subjects are getting squeezed out and the curriculum is being narrowed as a result. 

According to the Joint Council for Qualifications there’s been no great change. Traditional ‘core’ subjects continue to remain popular; Spanish continues to grow, but other subjects like Expressive Arts, Drama and PE still struggle – although, interestingly, entries for music were up.

Many people blame the EBacc for limiting choices for students. Calls to get rid of it have grown. This is ASCL from a week ago “the EBacc must be scrapped and more done to champion the importance of subjects that have been sidelined”.

The government’s line appears to be to champion the poor old curriculum review as a vehicle for rebalancing the curriculum. ‘Poor old’, because as mentioned last week, a growing number of issues are getting shunted on to the review. Here for instance is the schools minister on the matter: “Our review of the curriculum will break down barriers and ensure art, sport, music and drama are no longer the preserve of a privileged few”.

At some point expectation will meet reality.

Third, resits, the retaking of English and maths GCSEs for those post-16 students in England who failed to gain a grade 4 and who need them for progression purposes.

The burden of helping such students over this hurdle often falls on colleges, which last year had to hire extra staff and rooms to cope with the demand. 

This year nearly 100,000 post-16 ‘retake’ students gained a required pass in English and maths, but progress is slow. A small 1% increase in the numbers achieving a required pass in maths, but a notable drop in English. In both cases the figure was down on 2019.

The compulsory pass policy remains contentious, with many calling for a better alternative than condemning young people to what one leader called ‘a remorseless treadmill of resits’. 

In its response, the AoC argued that “the time is right to review government policy and look at a different way to support students to gain crucial English and maths skills, rather than putting them through a system which can leave many of them feeling that they have failed again and again”. The government had said while in opposition that it would scrap the policy, but the minister seemed to row back on that this week, arguing that ‘every young person should have a strong foundation in these subjects’. 

Another issue for the curriculum review no doubt. 

And fourth, what about GCSEs generally? 

There appear to have been fewer headline stories this year about their long-term future. Arguably, the curriculum review may have had something to do with this. Interestingly, the average number of GCSEs taken by 16-year-olds in England – a traditional concern about some students gathering them like scout badges, as one headteacher famously described it some years ago – has dropped slightly in recent years, to 7.81, the same as last year. 

Either way, the whole ‘fitness for purpose’ issue of GCSEs raised a couple of years ago by bodies such as The Times Education Commission and the Tony Blair Institute doesn’t seem to have featured this year. 

It's more likely on hold as other priorities take precedence. 

Away from GCSEs, what have been the other headlines in education this week?

Let’s start with schools, where a report on primary school science offered The Guardian an opportune headline. 'Add ice-lolly licking to England primary school curriculum, urge scientists', the headline ran.

The report came in the form of a series of recommendations from an advisory group that has been working with leading science bodies to develop a new framework for primary school science, involving among other things, more real-life contexts. 

As the NAHT explained, 'Using real-life scenarios and objects can help bring science to life for pupils'. And according to one teacher quoted, "licking ice lollies is a good way of bringing home the properties of cooling and heating", although some experiments might last longer than others.  

Another notable report this week came from the Education Policy Institute (EPI) which, with the youth charity Impetus, has been looking into the impact of school suspensions on young adults. 

In this follow-up report the EPI identified what they called ‘a suspension employment gap’ for such young people. In effect, 'suspended pupils are less likely to attain Level 3 qualifications, attend university, be in employment, education or training, and more likely to receive out-of-work benefits and health-related benefits'. 

Early intervention to help prevent suspensions happening in the first place was one of its recommendations. ASCL agreed, calling for ‘sufficient investment’ to help with this.

Elsewhere for schools and in particular those concerned about what teachers get up during the school holidays, the inestimable Teacher Tapp had some interesting little details this week. 

A fuller survey to come, but so far it appears 32% of respondents have taken the car in for an MOT, 60% have had no doubt a long-awaited haircut, and 78% have cleared out a room or a cupboard. The only time to get such jobs done.

On to FE where, as the government began advertising for board roles for its new skills body, Skills England, the FT examined the continuing ‘skills crisis’ in the UK. It pointed to a lack of investment and poor provision for the ‘other 50%’ of young people who don’t go on to secure a place at university or an apprenticeship as key factors.

It’s not a new problem of course but is a vital part of Labour’s mission on growth, which depends largely at the moment, not just on the impact of Skills England, but also on the creation of a more flexible growth and skills levy. 

As the FT acknowledged, 'the task ahead is huge'.

And finally HE where – with the government said to be looking at options for university financing as part of a wider review – the Sunday Times offered its thoughts on the matter in an Editorial last weekend. 

It called for ‘universities 'to be allowed to raise fees in line with inflation', arguing that 'our top universities compete in a global marketplace and need to be free to price themselves accordingly'. Further context can be heard in a useful podcast this week on the matter from the IfS.

According to the i-newspaper the government may go for a twin-track approach of a one-off increase in fees or the teaching grant, which could buy time for a wider review. Time to dust down the 2019 Augar Review perhaps.

Compounding the picture on student financial worries, last weekend, NatWest published its latest survey on student living, showing that rents have risen faster than inflation and household bills have overtaken supermarket spending in the list of student expenses. 

Apparently 'having a night in, without alcohol, is the most popular student activity. Almost two thirds (61%) do this at least once a fortnight'. For those wanting a pint, Lancaster comes out cheapest, although even here it has edged up to £4.17. Certainly can’t afford to spill any.

So, to round off, a busy period of exam and assessment results draws to a close, and attention now shifts to the new academic year and the build-up of activity expected.  

Links to most of these stories below starting with the week’s headlines.

The top headlines of the week:

• ‘Top-grade unis soak up students, UCAS data shows’ (Monday).
• ‘The UK skills crisis holding back growth' (Tuesday).
• ‘Ministers urged to act over numbers failing English and maths GCSEs’ (Wednesday).
• ‘GCSE results for 16-year-olds returns to pre-Covid levels’ (Thursday).
• ‘Private schools preparing for GCSE pupils to leave for state schools to avoid VAT’ (Friday).

More specifically ...

Schools:

• GCSE 2024. The government praised the resilience of this year’s GCSE students whose schooling was widely disrupted by the pandemic but who achieved results very similar to those of last year with 67.4% of grades for 16 yr olds in England at 4/C and above and 22.6% at grade 7 and above. 
• GCSE 2024 data. The Joint Council for Qualifications published the full data set for this summer’s GCSE results showing an increase in overall entries in line with an increase in the numbers of 16 yr olds, an increase in some subject areas from Spanish to Leisure, Travel and Tourism and with grades comparable to last year as females continue to outperform males. 
• GCSE 2024 analysis. The Education Policy Institute published its analysis of this summer’s GCSE results pointing among other things to a slight narrowing of the gap between male and female performance, the impact of the review of standards in German, French and Computing, and the pattern of regional inequality.
• GCSE results. Professor Alan Smithers called for the EBacc ‘to be scrapped,’ GCSEs to have separate UK country denominations on them and for ‘an urgent review’ as to why boys underperform girls as he set out his thoughts ahead of this summer’s results.
• Primary science. The Primary Curriculum Advisory Group (PCAG) followed up its report last autumn on a Future Primary Science Curriculum with a number of recommendations intended to bring home for pupils the importance of context and experience in understanding science.
• Suspension penalty. The Education Policy Institute published further work looking into the impact of school suspensions on the outcomes for young people, showing how these can blight early adulthood, calling as a result for better early intervention to prevent such scenarios happening in future.

FE/Skills:

• GCSE 2024. The AoC published its summary of this summer’s GCSE results highlighting the pass rates for adult GCSE resits which have remained stable for maths but fallen for English, calling for a rethink on the resit policy and for developing better alternatives.
• Skills reform. The FT examined the skills challenge facing Labour and the perennial problem of how best to provide for the ‘other 50%’ of young people who don’t go to university, highlighting Labour’s planned reform of the apprenticeship levy and the creation of the new skills body, Skills England, as key ingredients for an improved system.
• Skills England. The government posted adverts for p/t job roles as Board Members and Chair of its proposed new overarching skills body, Skills England, which is intended to become an Arm’s Length Body over the next 6-9 months and as such determine the skills programmes needed for the government’s growth agenda. 
• 16-18 NEET provision. The Northern Skills Network (NSN) published the results of its survey report into NEET provision for 16–18-year-olds across Northern cities and towns, pointing to ‘a growing gap in provision at L2 and below,’ and calling for increased funding and devolution, along with a pre-apprenticeship route and better diversity in provision generally.
• NEET alternatives. The Learning and Work Institute offered its thoughts on the latest NEET figures published by the ONS this week which showed an increase in numbers compared to the same period last year, calling again for the introduction of a Youth Guarantee to provide better opportunities for young people.

Not-to-be-missed numbers of the week:

• 34.1%. The amount of its budget that the government appears to have spent in the first third of this financial year, higher than expected according to the IfS.
• £157.78. The average monthly household bill reported by students, according to NatWest’s latest Student Living survey.
• £10,000-£15,000 pa. The remuneration for Board Members for Skills England based on 20 days a year, according to a government job advert. 
• 872,000. The number of young people not in education, employment or training (NEET) April-June 2024, up from 798,000 the year before according to the ONS.
• 70.4%. The percentage of entries for 16-year-olds in England achieving the standard grade 4 and above, similar to last year according to official figures. 
• 12.2%. The percentage of 16-year-olds in England who took 10 GCSEs, according to government figures.
• 2.5. The number of hours a day that some early years staff are having to spend on average away from their regular support work with children, because so many children are not yet toilet trained according to the charity Kindred.

Everything else you need to know ...

What to look out for next week

• MPs’ summer break (Tuesday 30 July – Monday 2 September).