Steve Besley's Education Eye: week ending 15 November 2024

Welcome to Education Eye, a regular update detailing the policies and stories happening in UK education, compiled by Steve Besley.

What's happened this week?

Important stories across the board:

Big conferences for FE and HE, a string of notable reports for schools and young people. It’s been another busy week in education.

Let’s start with schools where reports on funding for disadvantaged pupils, cuts to youth clubs, access to the creative industries and the role of AI have been among the headline topics.

The case for improved funding for disadvantaged pupils was set out in a report from the Education Policy Institute.

It called for money saved from falling rolls to be directed towards supporting ‘persistently disadvantaged pupils.’

Pointing to a fall in primary pupil numbers of around 200,000 by 2028/29, with a fall in secondary numbers expected to follow, the report called for a ‘modest’ reallocation of savings, potentially £640m a year, to be reallocated to help close the attainment gap between advantaged and disadvantaged pupils.

How far falling school rolls will free up savings remains debatable. Professional bodies argue that schools will still need to run, classrooms be lit, lunches served and so on. In addition the government is eyeing up some of the money for nursery provision and no doubt other things but as ASCL argued, ‘this is surely an opportunity that is too good to miss.’

On to youth clubs where the IfS highlighted this week what can happen when a vital service is shut down. Many such clubs faced cuts in the 2010s and were subsequently closed.

The IfS looked at the impact of this in London between 2010 and 2019 and found that teenagers in areas affected, performed ‘nearly 4% worse in their GCSE exams’ and were ‘14% more likely to engage in criminal activity in the six years following closure.’

As they concluded: “closing youth clubs was not cost-effective; for every £1 saved from closures, there are associated losses of nearly £3 due to forgone returns to education and crime costs.”

The report appeared, interestingly, in the same week as the government announced plans for a national youth strategy, which following one of those now familiar ‘national conversations’ with young people on what they want, will be launched next year.

Two other reports this week throw important light on aspects of the curriculum and add to the interest as submissions to the current review draw to a close.

First, the Sutton Trust reported on what it called ‘stark class inequalities in access to the creative industries.’

In a word, “class and background have a huge impact on people’s ability to reach the top of their creative profession.” “BAFTA-nominated actors,” for instance “are 5 times more likely to have attended a private school, at 35% compared to the national average of just 7%.”

The report cited a battery of statistics from across the education and arts world to make its point. Only pop singers seem to truly reflect the education background of the UK as a whole. “Only 8% were privately-educated, and 20% attended university, both close to the national averages,” the report points out.

The report makes a number of recommendations including linking future arts funding to socio-economic inclusion and providing an arts premium for schools.

Labour promised to support the arts ahead of the election with for example a Plan for the Creative Industries earlier this year. It’s likely to feature in the commission’s quest for more balance and opportunity in the curriculum.

And second, ahead of its annual big event at the start of next year, Bett reported on its survey by YouGov into how teachers see the role of AI in schools. They found what they described as “significant scepticism among teachers about AI’s ability to address key challenges in education.”

Many respondents reckon AI-powered assessments and exams are on the cards. 5% expect them within 1-2 years, 30% reckon it will take 5+ years while 18% don’t think it’ll ever happen. Many awarding organisations are already progressing with such assessments of course.

But on the wider front “62% of teachers believe AI will make academic cheating more difficult to detect, 68% don’t think AI-powered tutoring systems (tutor bots) will help address teacher shortages, 53% don’t believe AI will increase their confidence in their teaching methods, and 49% don’t think AI will help fill subject expertise gaps in schools.” As the report suggests, advocates for AI will have their work cut out.

Over in FE this week, the annual gathering of the clans for the landmark AoC Conference has been taking place.

The galaxy of speakers included both the Skills Minister and Ofsted’s Chief Inspector.

In her address, Jacqui Smith, the Skills Minister praised the work of colleges and pledged “to reverse the decline of the past 14 years.”

Funding of course is a key part of this and the Minister not only ran through the recent investment announced in the Budget but also confirmed that there would be help to pay for the additional cost of the NI contributions and that colleges would be included in the Local Government Pension Scheme (LGPS) guarantee.

The moves were welcomed by the AoC who reckon it could save them millions. “We estimate that the LGPS guarantee alone will save colleges around £30 million a year, with a lifetime saving of more than half a billion and the NIC funding will be over £100m per year.”

Apart from the money, the Minister also outlined a refreshed skills system.” My vision is for a framework of local coordination between providers, responding to local skills needs, informed by national skills priorities.”

It’s a vision that has had its advocates before but now comes with an added focus on coordination, coherence and learner support. It too was welcomed by the AoC.

We now await the appearance of the new Industrial Strategy and of Skills England to bring the vision together.

As for the Chief Inspector, he confirmed that as with schools, Ofsted will be moving to a report card model for colleges from next September.

A key part of the speech, however, was the acknowledgement that Ofsted needs to recognise the different local contexts in which colleges operate. Local skills priorities often differ for example. It seems that Ofsted is looking to get a better handle on this.

“We’re developing a new area insights service, which will visualise local area data and enable inspectors to better understand local context,” Sir Martyn explained. More details on this are likely to come as part of the consultation in January on a new Inspection Framework.

To round off a busy week for FE, the AoC published an interesting report on the eve of the Conference, highlighting the growing numbers of 14–16-year-olds now being provided for in colleges in England, up 30% since 2020/21 and calling for funding to match that of schools.

And the Education Policy Institute raised concerns about high drop out rates and poor outcomes for some T level courses, including notably the T level transition programme.

In an expansive report, it concluded “our analyses show that T levels, as things stand, are clearly not for everyone.”

The AoC and ASCL agreed. “We have long said that T Levels are not for every student, and that students need to be on the programmes most suited to their needs and progression plans,” the AoC explained.

In HE, where Wonkhe has been hosting its latest successful annual Festival of Higher Education with further details to follow, the OfS confirmed it had formally become a member of the International Network for Quality Assurance Agencies in Higher Education. INQAAHE for a lot shorter.

But the most sober news for the sector this week came with an updated assessment from the OfS of the state of HE finances.

In a word, earlier forecasts were too optimistic, student recruitment remains weak, and ‘there are significant risks, rights across the sector for all types of institution.’ The report suggests that ‘up to 72% of providers could be in deficit by 2025/26.’ As the chief executive of the OfS explained, “this updated analysis starkly illustrates the financial challenges that continue to face universities.”

The OfS now has a stronger remit in terms of financial modelling and the suggestion is that ‘bold and transformative action’ is needed to help some institutions survive.

The President of UKK, Dame Sally Mapstone, confirmed that the new cross-sector Taskforce, proposed in their recent sector blueprint to help work collaboratively on efficiencies, would be set up before the end of the year and report back next summer. “It’s time for the sector and government to work together to nurture our universities back to full health so that they can, in turn, support the nation’s renewal,” she said.

And Public First’s Rachel Wolf offered some insightful words in a blog on the Wonkhe site, on how universities might cut through and make their case. “Big numbers won’t cut it – but numbers that describe, compellingly, the impact of your decisions will.”

Links to most of these stories below starting with the week’s headlines.

The top headlines of the week:

‘Suspension or exclusion for almost fifth of disadvantaged Year 9s’ (Monday)
‘Teachers sceptical’ of AI benefits in schools’ (Tuesday)
‘Hundreds of English schools still at risk from crumbling concrete’ (Wednesday)
‘One in three T-level students drop out of health course’ (Thursday)
‘Three in four universities expected to be in the red next year’ (Friday)

General:

Clean Energy. The Energy, Security and Net Zero Committee launched a new Inquiry into workforce planning and skill needs for the UK’s clean energy commission and of the role of key bodies and agencies involved in ensuring such a trained workforce for the future.
National Youth Strategy. The government announced plans to wind down the National Citizen Service (NCS) and to create a National Youth Service with young people invited in the first instance to ‘engage in a national conversation’ that will help draft the Strategy and in turn complement the new Youth Guarantee.
Youth clubs. The IfS examined the impact of youth clubs on education and crime and in particular what happens when such clubs are shut down, concluding that young people in areas affected by closures ended up with poorer outcomes at school and were more likely to commit crimes
Labour market outlook. The ONS published its latest ‘estimated’ picture on the UK labour market showing a drop in vacancies August -October, a slight increase in the unemployment rate but slight fall in the economic inactivity rate July-September, and an increase in regular earnings over the same period.
Labour market analysis. The Institute for Employment Studies (IES) provided its regular analysis of the latest labour market figures, pointing once again to a mixed picture with regular earnings continuing to tick up and some improvement in the economic inactivity rate for 35–64-year-olds, but with concerns about a rising rate for 16–24-year-olds.
Working families. The Resolution Foundation outlined the challenges facing ‘low to middle-income Britain’ who tend to be older, in poorer health, acting as carers but also mainly working, compared to their peers of 30 years ago, as it launched a major new 12-month project with support from JMorganChase looking into how the economic circumstances of low-income families have changed over the past 30 years.
Adult social care. The County Councils Network highlighted ‘a dramatic rise’ in the cost of providing care and support for working age adults and the lifelong disabled, as it published a new report at its Annual Conference calling for major system reform.
Local growth. The Mayor of East Midlands announced the launch of a new Inclusive Growth Commission, to be chaired by the RSA’s Andy Haldane and to report back, initially by next spring, on how the region can tackle growth, opportunities and challenges across the region.
Early years. The Early Years Alliance called on the government to exempt early years providers from the increase in NI contributions and minimum wages listed in the Budget, as it published results form a new survey showing that 95% of providers may have to put up fees and/or over 50% reduce places as a result.
National Numeracy. The charity, National Numeracy, launched its new strategy with a range of measures built around three ‘Big Changes’ of Numeracy for Equality, for Success and for Community, driven by an ambition of ‘empowering half a million people to thrive using numeracy by 2028.’

More specifically ...

Schools:

Maths and sciences GCSE. Ofqual confirmed, following recent consultation, that students taking GCSE maths, physics and combined science exams in 2025, 2026, and 2027 will continue to be provided with formulae and equation sheets, with these being published next month for those taking exams next summer.
AI in schools. Bett reported a mixed picture about the role and value of AI in schools as it published the results of a YouGov survey showing that among those surveyed, more teachers disagree than agree that AI will free up teaching time or transform classroom teaching practices, although many recognise the inevitability of AI-powered assessments in time.
Deprivation funding. The Education Policy Institute called for savings made from falling student numbers to be redirected to supporting persistently disadvantaged pupils as it published a new report showing a continuing wide attainment gap between such pupils and their non-disadvantaged peers.
Arts elite. The Sutton Trust called for an arts premium for schools, for state school pupils to have at least one creative trip a year and for inclusion to be a condition for wider arts funding as it published a new report showing that young people from a working-class background are four times less likely to work in the creative industries than their middle-class peers.
Local partnerships. The Education Endowment Foundation announced the creation of ten new Regional Partnerships which will work with local partners and providers to improve teaching and outcomes for local pupils, particularly in disadvantaged areas.
Exclusions and suspensions. FFT Education Datalab suggested a likely increase in the rate of pupil exclusions and suspensions for 2023/24, including among disadvantaged pupils, as it examined initial data ahead of official figures due next summer.
Children’s reading. That National Literacy Trust reported on the impact of its ‘Changing the Story’ Reading Programme developed with Hachette UK to develop children’s reading skills and enjoyment, and which saw an increase in pupils’ standardised scores and in the number saying they enjoyed reading.
Free school meals. The Child Poverty Action Group (CPAG) called on the government to review the free school meals threshold as it published survey evidence showing many primary schools in England facing school meal debt with volumes rising in recent years.

FE/Skills:

Minister’s address. Jacqui Smith, the skills minister, addressed the AoC Conference where she set out her plans for strengthening the skills system and confirmed the latest funding to support colleges, including help with increased employer NI contributions and ‘a crown guarantee’ for colleges within the Local Government Pension Scheme.
Chief Inspector’s address. Sir Martyn Oliver, Ofsted Chief Inspector, also addressed the AoC Conference where he confirmed plans to remove the single word judgement for colleges from next September in favour of a report card approach as well as developing a local ‘insights service’ to better understand the local context and demand in which colleges operate.
T levels. The Education Policy Institute called for funding for other overlapping qualifications to T levels, such as BTECs, to continue and for the current T level transition programme to be overhauled as it pointed to a mixed picture on T level performance in a new report.
College provision for young people. The AoC highlighted the key role played by colleges in England in the provision for 14–16-year-olds as it published a comprehensive new research report, calling for a clear framework and equitable funding to support such provision in future.
IELTS tests. The British Council, Cambridge University Press and partners announced they were teaming up with the UN Refugee Agency (UNRA) to offer free language tests to refugees that could be taken on paper or computer and at suitable locations.
Pay matters. The NEU declared that eligible members who teach in sixth form colleges had voted decisively for strike action in their dispute over pay and funding.

HE:

University finances. The OfS published a further update on the state of university finances indicating that ‘nearly three-quarters of HE providers could be in deficit by 2025/26’ with teaching-intensive providers most vulnerable.
Efficiency Taskforce. Sally Mapstone, President of Universities UK (UUK,) welcomed the government’s recent tuition fee announcement for next year and confirmed that as proposed in UUK’s recent blueprint, a new Transformation and Efficiency Taskforce would be set up by the end of the year and report back next summer.
Future funding. Rachel Wolf, CEO of the consultancy Public First, argued in a blog on the Wonkhe site that universities will need to demonstrate their value to the lives of both individuals and governments in a more direct and accessible way if they are to secure greater funding in future.
Postgrads. The government confirmed £500m of additional funding through two new UKRI schemes to help support doctoral students studying biological sciences, engineering and physical sciences, and natural and environmental sciences at leading universities.
Student housing. The NUS highlighted ‘the extent of the crisis in student housing’ as it published the results of a survey showing that over 80% of students have experienced issues of some sort, calling among other things for the ‘difficult’ process of securing UK-based guarantors for tenants to be scrapped.
Policy and practice. City St George’s, University of London announced that Diana Beech had been recruited to become the inaugural director of its new public policy body, the Finsbury Institute, with a brief to bring together policymakers, practitioners and others to focus on ‘pressing local, national and global issues.
Quality assurance. The Office for Students (OfS) formally confirmed its membership of INQAAHE (International Network for Quality Assurance Agencies in HE) with the aim of learning from and adding to a global network on QAA in HE.

Tweets and posts of note:

“Forget trying to get Oasis or Glastonbury tickets, the real competition is when the online portal for Parents Evening opens and you have 27 seconds to book 12 different subjects without a 3 hr gap in the middle!” -@Brummybar.
“One of those moments I love teaching today. Working through a really tough question with a couple of struggling pupils. All of a sudden, half way through I see the eyes of one light up and he says "Ooh ooh sir, I know now I get it!" Man I love those moments. Well done that lad!” -@MrRobHistory.
“I have been a Headteacher for 14 years. It’s taken till week 9 of Year 15 for the Secretary of State say that schools are about high achievement but should also be full of children who want to go to school in their local community and develop themselves personally” -@tilling1111.
“Going back into education as an adult was terrifying but this morning I found out I’ve got into my first-choice uni. I’m so proud of myself” –@positivelyellie.
“Well, the day arrived that I’ve always dreaded. I dropped my lanyard down the toilet” -@dave_mcpartlin.
“I remember, when I was a small boy in the 1960s, saying "Dad, what's an anachronism?", and he simply replied "Google it" -@MooseAllain.

A selection of quotes that merit attention:

“The labour market continues to split with signs of employers’ weakening intentions to hire at the same time as a welcome fall in inactivity” – the CBI responds to the latest labour market figures from the ONS.
“Education is about being a “grounded optimist” – salutary words from Dr John Cater in an interview with the THES as he prepares to leave Edge Hill University after 30+ years.
“In the cold light of day it is clear that this was a budget aimed largely at getting through the next 12 to 18 months, at buying time, not at setting an agenda for the rest of the parliament” – Paul Johnson, Director of the IfS, reflects on the Budget a couple of weeks on.
“There’s got to be a complete review of the child poverty policy,” – Gordon Brown urges the government to reconsider the two-child benefit cap.
“Today’s report demonstrates just how challenging recruitment is for many institutions, with modelling suggesting that many more institutions will report a deficit and low liquidity than had been forecast” – the OfS publishes its latest report into university finances.
“I still favour a fee and grant mix, but from the Treasury’s perspective, student loans are more attractive” – Philip Augar, author of the 2019 Augar report on post-18 provision reflects on future funding for the sector.
“The government must act if the original aims of the T level reforms are to be achieved” – the Education Policy Institute reports on T levels.
“I want to stress that I know leadership in this sector is tough for principals, senior teams, chairs and governance professionals” – the FE Commissioner in a valedictory speech to the AoC Conference.
“I went from being the problem one to being one of the best just like that” – one of the 14–16-year-olds surveyed in an AoC report who moved from studying at school to college.
” It’s the so-called non-academised sixth form colleges that haven’t had the recent pay rise” – the NEU reports a decisive vote for strike action over pay among NEU members in sixth form colleges
“Inspections won’t work as we all want them to, if they run ‘hot’. I really want to take the temperature down” – Ofsted’s Chief Inspector in a speech last week.
“We have consistently said that the government’s expectations on pupil movement have underestimated how much pressure VAT will place on schools and parents alike” – the Independent Schools Council on the knock-on effect of VAT on fees.

Not-to-be-missed numbers of the week:

21.8%. The economic inactivity rate for the period July-September 2024, down from 22.2% previously according to latest figures from the ONS.
14.8%. The unemployment rate for 16–24-year-olds for the period July-September 2024, 2.8% up on the previous year according to the ONS.
84%. The number of university students who have experienced problems with their housing, many with issues of mould or mildew according to the NUS.
97%. The number of eligible NEU members who teach in sixth form colleges who voted for strike action over pay and funding, according to the NEU.
35%. The numbers of teachers surveyed who disagree that AI will positively transform classroom teaching practices, according to a survey by YouGov for Bett.
83,630. The number of looked after children by local authorities in England 2023/24, similar to last year according to latest government figures.
£300,000. The average annual cost of providing a placement for a child in care, according to figures from the County Councils Network.
40%. The number of Early Years providers who may have to shut down following the additional charges of NI and minimum wages announced in the Budget, according to a survey from the Early Years Alliance.

Everything else you need to know ...

What to look out for next week

Adjournment debate on the rollout of free breakfast clubs in primary schools (Monday 18 November)
Westminster Hall debate on Apprenticeships and T levels (Wednesday 20 November)
Schools and Academies Show (Wednesday 20 November)
Deadline for submissions to the Curriculum and Assessment Review (Friday 22 November)

Steve Besley

Disclaimer: Education Eye is intended to help colleagues keep up to date with national developments in the education sector. Information is correct at the time of writing and is offered in good faith. No liability is accepted by Steve Besley or EdCentral for decisions made on the basis of any information provided.