Steve Besley's Education Eye: week ending 13 December 2024

Welcome to Education Eye, a regular update detailing the policies and stories happening in UK education, compiled by Steve Besley.

What's happened this week?

Important stories across the board:

Not much evidence of Christmas cheer this week.

The government proposed public sector pay limits of 2.8% including for teachers for next year, the Chancellor called for 5% efficiencies from government depts as part of the spending review, the IfS pointed to ‘unsustainable’ pressures on LA budgets from high needs demands and the HE Policy Institute (HEPI) reported on the “shocking” costs of student accommodation in London.

Unsurprisingly as a result, a big theme this week has been how to make things work more efficiently. Cabinet minister Pat McFadden set the tone at the start of the week with a speech on public sector reform.

He called for new creative thinkers to come in and help the government and public bodies do things differently. Not quite the ‘weirdos and misfits’ of the Cummings era but innovators and others who could help develop solutions through a ‘test and learn approach.’

“Use your brainpower and tech talents to fix some of the biggest problems we face today. Britain needs you,” he urged.

It follows last week’s refocusing by the PM of the government’s five key missions and as many noted, moves things from the what to the how.

For the moment, however, it’s the what that continues to dominate and there’s been plenty of that for education this week. Here’s a run through.

In Westminster, as indicated, the Chancellor formally launched the government’s Spending Review which will conclude next June and set dept spending limits for the three years 2026-29 along with five years of capital spending. Treasury Chief Secretary Darren Jones who is leading the £1.2tn review, is already out speaking to all concerned.

The message is familiar. “Where spending is not contributing to a priority, it should be stopped.”

No Star Chamber as yet but a dashboard that will start flashing if a minister overspends. Perhaps we could all do with one of those over Christmas.

DfE ministers took education questions this week with SEND, teacher recruitment and retention, skills training and freedom of speech in HE, among the topics raised.

Standard responses were generally the order of the day. Here’s the response on the ‘crisis’ in SEND provision for instance. “The Department for Education is committed to ensuring adequate support for children with special educational needs and disabilities.”

And the Education Committee quizzed Sir Ian Bauckham, currently the interim head of Ofqual and the government’s preferred candidate for the permanent role, a couple of days after Susan Tranter was confirmed as Ofqual’s new Chair.

MPs head off for their Christmas recess next Thursday.

Over in schools, the traditional data dump of statistics and reports from government ahead of that Christmas break, arrived towards the end of the week..

It included details and data on KS2 assessment performance, LA school expenditure, malpractice and reviews of marking and moderation for this summer’s GCSE and A level exams, early years childcare arrangements, apprenticeship endpoint assessment outcomes, elective home education numbers and children missing education. Links to many of these below.

There’ve also been some important reports and developments for schools this week.

One of the most important came at the start of the week from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IfS,) adding its voice to those in recent weeks about the SEND system being broken. In its view, ‘the funding system is now unsustainable.’

Funding for high needs may have gone up massively – 59% over the last decade to be precise – but it hasn’t been able to keep pace with demand which has seen the number of pupils with education and health care plans (EHCPs) which local authorities (LAs) and schools are required to deliver, ‘rise by 180,000 or 71% between 2018 and 2024.’

As the IfS acknowledged this is ‘a global phenomenon,’ but its left local authorities here with deficits in their high needs budgets of around £3.4bn. Accounting rules change in 18 months and without reform, LA deficits could hit what the IfS describe as ‘absurd levels of £8bn by 2027.’

The report calls for ‘urgent, radical change’ starting with a clear long-term vision. One model might be that of the National Funding Formula for schools, tiresome and slow perhaps but with a vision and protections.

Also this week, the government called on Ofsted to undertake an independent review of the use of AI in schools and colleges. It’ll aim to build up evidence from data collections, literature reviews and various interviews and report back next summer.

It came as two contrasting reports were published.

In one, the chartered body for IT, BCS, found little appreciation, let alone excitement about the potential of AI in its survey of teachers. “The survey of over 5,000 teachers found the vast majority (84%) have not changed the way they assess students’ work, despite the availability of AI tools.”

In the other, the Education Endowment Foundation (EEF) reported on its trial of teacher’s use of ChatGPT for lesson and resource planning for Yr 7 and 8 science classes, finding that it cut lesson planning time by 31%. “This provides us with the interesting first piece in the puzzle of AI’s role in the future of teaching,” the EEF said.

All of which increases the need for that Ofsted review. For the moment the standard line comes from the NAHT. “It makes sense that AI is introduced gradually in order to maximise its potential and mitigate the risks.”

And the other big talking point for schools this week has been pay and the government’s recommendation of an award of 2.8% for teachers next year, in line with other public servants.

“This level of award,” it argued in its published submission this week to the pay body, “would maintain the competitiveness of teachers’ pay, despite the challenging financial backdrop the Government is facing.”

Unions were unimpressed. ASCL called it ‘disappointing,’ the NEU said it was ‘putting the government on notice.’ And to rub salt in it, schools will have to find efficiencies and fund the award from their own budgets. “To cover the 2.8% award proposed for teachers, the Department recognises that most schools will need to supplement the new funding they receive in FY2025-26 with efficiencies.”

As the BBC’s edition editor Branwen Jeffreys pointed out, it shows the financial constraints under which the government is currently operating.

On to FE where the big news came towards the end of the week with the government’s confirmation of the outcome of its ‘rapid review’ of L3 qualifications and in particular the position on other qualifications for learners alongside A levels and T levels.

To the sound of some sighs of relief, it confirmed that a large chunk of these other qualifications, 157 in total and including those like BTECs, will continue to be funded and that ‘learners will be able to combine qualifications in the way that suits them.’

There are caveats.

The 157 ‘saved’ qualifications face having their funding removed “once they are no longer needed – for example once reformed alternatives are available or if they are not sufficiently used.” And funding for over 200 current other qualifications will be removed but the government’s desire to ‘movie away from blanket restrictions, such as the T Level overlap rule and instead, take a practical, evidence–led approach, looking at the qualifications route by route,’ has been welcomed.

Providers had called for early confirmation of which qualifications would continue to be funded so that they could plan future provision for their learners with confidence.

As such the AoC welcomed the news as ‘offering some stability’ while the Sixth Form Colleges Association, which had campaigned to protect student choice of qualifications, said the announcement ‘brought good news for students, the education sector and employers.’

Talking of the AoC, it made its case this week for leading on the sorts of skills and opportunities that the PM was talking about in his speech on renewed missions last week. But only if the government was prepared to support and invest in the sector.

As the AoC’s David Hughes explained “the risk is that after a decade of neglect, colleges cannot step up without change; change in the system, rules and regulation and most importantly a step-change in investment.”

And the importance of that sort on investment was highlighted this week with the publication of the OECD’s latest (2023) international assessment of adult skills which saw ‘above OECD average performance’ by adults (16-65) in England in the three core skills of literacy, numeracy and adaptive problem-solving.

The sorts of skills that the FE sector spends so much of its time providing for and particularly crucial with the report highlighting the 8.5m working-age adults having L1 or below skills and finding it difficult to engage in the labour market.

In HE, the Office for Students (OfS) launched consultation on a new 5-year Strategy.

Described as “a bold and urgent agenda for change that will guide the OfS’s activities as a regulator over the next five years,” it picks up on its recent review plus discussions about the role of regulation including over institutional finance, to list three future strategic priorities, covering quality, sector resilience and the wider student experience.

Wonkhe reckoned it was a positive step forward: “evolving a version of regulation that broadly seeks to facilitate and improve rather than constrain and finger-wag.”

Elsewhere, UCAS rounded off the HE application cycle for this year with its initial ‘End of Cycle’ report.

The headline message was of a drop in international applications, particularly among mature applicants from Nigeria and India, but a ‘record’ rise in the number of UK 18-year-olds accepting a place in university or college, up 2.9% on last year.

Demographics played a part here. A further report is due at the end of January which may shed more light on recruitment to individual institutions let alone the growing use of Clearing.

Talking of student entries to HE, the cost of student housing in London was exposed in a new report from student housing body, Unipol, and HEPI.

According to the report, average weekly rents for 2024/25 ranged from £232 for university owned accommodation to £395 for private lets and typically ended up costing more than a student loan itself.

HEPI’s Nick Hillman called the figures “shocking” while the report called for an overhaul of the student maintenance system.

And with the government considering its position on freedom of speech on campuses, Universities UK reported that over 90% of universities have a free speech code of practice providing information, guidance and procedures as appropriate.

Links to most of these stories below starting with the week’s headlines.

The top headlines of the week:

‘University to cut staff after student numbers fall’ (Monday)
‘Fix SEN funding to avoid ‘absurd’ council deficits in England, IfS says’ (Tuesday)
‘Government recommends 2.8% pay rise for public sector’ (Wednesday)
‘Rapid Review: 70% of L3 courses saved from defunding’ (Thursday)
‘Culture clashes make FE-HE mergers ‘complex,’ say VCs’ (Friday)

General:

UK-EU finance reset. The Chancellor addressed Eurozone finance ministers highlighting the importance of growth to both the UK and EU and pointing to three ways in which the UK and EU could work together to achieve this, including facing shared challenges, being more open and ‘deepening our economic ties.’
System reform. Cabinet minister Pat McFadden addressed the issue of public sector reform in a major speech, calling for new ways and new people to come in and help the government ‘test and learn’ different ways of tackling long standing problems around public service delivery.
Childcare. The IPPR think tank and Save the Children called for the setting up of new, not-for-profit nursery trusts and for pooled funding to be used to support childcare in the areas of greatest need as they published a new report showing huge variation in the provision of childcare with deprived areas missing out the most.
Early years funding. The government confirmed an increase in the hourly rate for early years providers along with a big increase in the early years pupil premium and a promised expansion grant to help providers meet extra demand from September, as it responded to the PM’s latest Plan for Change metric.
Lost Boys. The Centre for Social Justice launched a Call for Evidence to help inform a new project it was undertaking, seeking in its words “to explore the root cause of what’s gone wrong for boys in Britain” and looking in particular at aspects such as education, health, crime and the online world.
Cyber security. The EU Commission announced the introduction of a Cyber Resilience Act which will impose new cyber security rules on manufacturers and retailers including a new duty of care.

More specifically ...

Schools:

Teacher’s pay. The government set out its evidence to the teacher’s pay body acknowledging concerns over workloads, pay comparability and teacher recruitment but pointing to two recent years of substantial awards and arguing that in the current financial circumstances, an award of 2.8% would be ‘appropriate.’
SEND concerns. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IfS) called for ‘urgent reform’ of the SEND system in England as it reported on the huge increase in the number of pupils with highest needs and the soaring costs that this involves, leading to a build-up of large deficits in local authority budgets.
KS2 performance. The government published revised attainment figures for KS2 assessments this year, confirming the earlier figures of a slight increase in the percentage of pupils reaching the expected stand in reading, writing and maths this year but an attainment gap of 3.13.
2024 exams marking reviews. Ofqual reported on marking and moderation reviews for this summer’s GCSE, AS and A levels showing a slight increase from 4.9% to 5.2% in the number of grades challenged, with 1.2% changed of which just over 22% were changed upwards.
2024 exams malpractice. Ofqual published data on reported cases of malpractice in this summer’s GCSE, AS and A levels showing an increase in cases on last year, albeit small in terms of the volume of exams and institutions involved, with a fall in the number involving student mobile phones to 41.4% from 44.5% previously.
AI review. The government called on Ofsted to undertake an independent review of the use of AI in schools and colleges, looking into its role in teaching and learning, admin and potential risks and benefits, with a report due next summer.
Teachers and AI. BCS, the Chartered Institute for IT, found that over half of teachers surveyed were not using ChatGPT professionally with nearly a fifth of those ‘not interested’ in using AI anytime in the future, as it published the results of a new survey of teachers pointing to limited understanding of AI’s potential.
Another perspective on AI. The Education Endowment Foundation reported on its trial project of having a group of teachers use ChatGPT to prepare lessons and resources for Yr 7 and 8 science classes finding that they saved 25.3 minutes a week on average compared to fellow non ChatGPT teachers, with no evidence that the quality of the resources differed.
Oak Review. The government set out the terms of reference for the formal review of Oak National Academy which will start this month, be undertaken by an independent Lead Reviewer and focus on such issues as efficacy and accountability.
Christmas Challenge. GCHQ set out its 2024 Christmas Challenge, a series of seven puzzles with various problem-solving skills, and as in previous years, inviting schools and young people generally to see if they could crack the codes.

FE/Skills:

L3 qualifications. The government reported on its L3 review following intensive discussions, confirming that 157 current other qualifications such as BTECs would be retained, at least for the short-term, while some 220 qualifications with poor enrolments would have their funding withdrawn from next August and the Onsite Construction T level would be dropped.
Adult skills. The government reported on UK performance in last year’s OECD led survey of adult skills covering skills in literacy, numeracy and problem-solving and resulting in scores above the OECD average in each case, particularly in numeracy and particularly among young (16-19) adults and those in professional jobs but with a long tail of low proficiency among some working-age adults.
English Language scheme. The government confirmed that it was scrapping the Refugee Employability Programme, a Programme set up last year by the previous government to help eligible refugees learn English and find a job.
Apprenticeships. The AELP called for Functional Skills to be removed as an exit requirement from apprenticeships as its published a new survey report showing that it was restricting opportunity within apprenticeships and ‘holding back’ learning of English and maths.
Mission ahead. The Association of Colleges (AoC) called on the government to ‘empower and invest’ in the sector so that it could help the government meet its objectives, adding case study evidence to show the core work that colleges already do in communities.
Skills system reform. The FE + Skills Collective reported on its collaborative event held recently looking at how to ‘re-energise’ the skills system and align it with the government’s missions, putting forward ‘a blueprint for action’ based around such principles as localised decision making, the integration of technology and collaborative relationships.

HE:

5-year strategy. The Office for Students (OfS) set out a new 5-year strategy to run from 2025-2030, to focus on six goals listed within three set priorities of quality, the wider student experience and sector resilience, and which will remain open for consultation until 20 February 2025.
2024 Uni admissions. UCAS published its traditional roundup of facts and figures on this year’s HE applications pointing among other things to greater use of the Clearing system this year, a drop in international applications but a rise in the number of 18-year-olds, including those from disadvantaged areas, accepting a place this year.
Freedom of speech. Universities UK reported on its survey among members on freedom of speech and academic freedom, revealing that the majority (93%) of universities have codes of practice on the matter and that 81% have reviewed their codes since May 2023 with ‘positive outcomes.’.
L4/5 learners. UCAS published a new report looking in more detail at the motivations and experiences of L4/5 learners, finding the majority to be mature applicants, often with a BTEC background, typically studying health/nursing programmes and keen to improve their career and progression prospects.
Civic institutions. PwC and Lloyds Bank reported on their work with universities over the year, helping them develop their core role as drivers of local and economic growth pointing to a number of features including civic focus and enhanced collaboration that could enhance and strengthen this role in the future.
Accommodation costs. HEPI and student rental body, Unipol, highlighted an ‘alarming’ picture of student rental costs in London, with rapidly rising rents and “the maximum maintenance loan now falling below the cost of an average student rent, calling for support for the 2021 Mayoral London Plan and an overhaul of the maintenance loan system.

Tweets and posts of note:

“The inadequacy of the proposed pay award is compounded by the government’s intention that schools should foot the bill out of their existing allocations" -@ASCL_UK.
“This proposed pay 2.8% award for teachers 2025-26 would be England only. The pay review body has insider labour market. Recruitment to primary teaching holding up - for secondary it’s around half of target” -@branwenjeffreys.
“@Ofqual’s incoming Chief Regulator Ian Bauckham told us why humans, not AI, should still mark exams. “AI still makes mistakes, it hallucinates…” -@CommonsEd.
“Said it before and I'll say it again, the nation's "skills problems" are largely not to do with supply. Policymakers' efforts need to focus on increasing the demand for, utilisation of and investment in skills” -@HCFEprincipal.
“This Christmas, please say thank you to your headteacher and senior leaders for everything they have done for schools. You might not agree with their decisions but say thank you. It would mean the world to them!” -@Headteacherchat.
“Whisper it quietly but it’s December 11th and I still haven’t been hit with Wham yet.. probably will hear it within the next 48 hours no doubt” -@TotallyTettey.
“My wife asked me to pass her the lipstick, but I accidentally gave her the glue stick. She still isn't talking to me” -@BigBearF1.

A selection of quotes that merit attention:

“Close as we are, I know that the last few years have been fractious” – the Chancellor addresses EU finance ministers.
“I said I would have an iron grip on the public finances and that means taking an iron fist against waste" – the Chancellor channels her iron lady as she launches the spending review.
“SEND, children’s social care, temporary accommodation: none are currently serving people the way they should, while at the same time, costs are going up,”- Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Pat McFadden calls for a different approach to public sector reform.
“From substance misuse to education to health services, the state effectively waits for problems to get very bad before addressing them, which is terrible on both a human and an economic level” – The Observer reflects on the government’s missions.
“As part of our research, we studied over 1200 new regulations introduced between 2014 and 2024, and related to seven regulatory bodies” – the think tank Policy Exchange reports on ‘The Rise of the Regulators.’
“To deliver these ambitious proposals, the OfS must change as a regulator” – the Chair of the OfS launches consultation on a new 5-year Strategy.
“More work is needed to ensure the applied route is not only retained, but also treated with the same respect as A levels and T levels, and we must move away from referring to these qualifications as “alternatives” – the sixth form colleges association responds to the government’s statement on L3 reforms.
“There is huge untapped opportunity for colleges to play a powerful role across all five of the government’s missions, and a risk that this is left unfulfilled” – the AoC says it’s waiting to help the government deliver on its missions but needs investment first
“I am determined to reset the relationship between Government and the workforce” – the Education Secretary before the latest pay report.
“This is the exact opposite of fixing the foundations and will inevitably result in more cuts to the curriculum, increased class sizes, and reduced pastoral support” – ASCL responds to the government recommendations on pay for teachers.
“High needs spending has been consistently higher than funding by £200–800 million per year between 2018 and 2022” the IfS reports on the challenges around funding SEND provision.
“How have schools and colleges approached introducing and using AI, including the challenges, barriers, successes and benefits?” – one of the questions Ofsted is seeking to address in its review of the use of AI in schools and colleges.
“The important thing is that there remains a human element to oversee the quality and reliability of any AI-generated materials” – ASCL comments on a trial use of ChatGPT undertaken by the Education Endowment Foundation which appears to show teachers’ time being saved.
“Susan brings over three decades of invaluable experience in education, from the classroom to senior leadership, combined with a deep understanding of wider system improvement” – the Education Secretary welcomes Dr Susan Tranter as Chair of Ofqual.

Not-to-be-missed numbers of the week:

564,940. The number of people gaining a place in UKHE this year, up 1.9% on last year according to latest figures from UCAS.
£295. The average weekly rental for students in London, up from £250 a week previously, according to a report from the student housing body Unipol.
£7,580. The average expenditure per pupil by LA maintained schools this year, £512 more than the previous year according to latest government figures.
15.3%. The percentage of LA schools in deficit this year, up 2.2% on last year, according to latest government figures.
5%. The number of pupils in schools in England with education and health care plans (EHCPs,) according to a report from the IfS.
61%. The percentage of KS2 pupils meeting the expected standards in reading writing and maths this year, up from 60% in the previous year according to latest government updated figures.
111,700. The number of children reported to be in elective home education (EHE) on this term’s census date, up from an estimated 92,000 in the previous autumn term according to latest government figures.
39,200. The number of children missing education CME) as of the census date this term, up from an estimated 33,000 last autumn term according to latest government figures.
£570. The rate for the early years pupil premium this year, up 45% according to latest government details.
£6.60. The mean hourly parent-paid fee charged by providers for children aged under 2 according to latest government figures.
150m. The global number of under 5-year-olds who are unregistered and therefore invisible to government systems, according to UNICEF.
£90. The price of a 4/5kg ‘top quality’ turkey this year, according to leading butchers.

Everything else you need to know ...

What to look out for next week

MPs Christmas recess (Thursday 19 December – Monday 6 January)

Steve Besley

Disclaimer: Education Eye is intended to help colleagues keep up to date with national developments in the education sector. Information is correct at the time of writing and is offered in good faith. No liability is accepted by Steve Besley or EdCentral for decisions made on the basis of any information provided.