Steve Besley's Education Eye: week ending 10 January 2025

What's happened this week?

Important stories across the board:

A week or so into the new year and things are already looking pretty busy for education.

Some of this, such as the Curriculum and Assessment Review, follows from announcements made last year and due to materialise this year. Some, such as the Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Bill, come from the late sugar-rush of activity just before Christmas, and some, such as the Institute for Fiscal Studies’ (IfS) annual report on education spending in England, are from developments this week. 

How far it all coheres into a clear policy programme remains uncertain, as Sam Freedman argued in the TES this week.

Either way, let’s start with two big ticket items from last year, given that they’re likely to shape education debate for much of the year ahead.

The first is that important Curriculum and Assessment Review, launched last summer, with interim findings due to be published in the next few months and a final report set for the autumn. 

The government said it was looking for the Review 'to breathe new life into our outdated curriculum and assessment system'. So far, as the TES has pointed out, much of the attention has been on the curriculum rather than on assessment, yet it’s the latter where many of the critical issues – such as SATs and GCSEs, let alone AI – continue to challenge. 

As for the curriculum, what to put in, what to take out. It’s always a difficult balancing act and seemingly won’t be any easier this time round if this headline from The Sun over Christmas is anything to go by: 'Fury after Keir Starmer urged to axe British history such as 1066 from national curriculum in woke shake-up'.

As things stand, a reduced curriculum requirement to allow for greater flexibility and a focus on core assessment only, seem likely runners and riders. Not everyone will be happy.

The second big event will come in June, when details of department spending for the next three years will be announced as part of the multi-year Spending Review.

The arrangements were set out in last year’s fractious Budget and involve department ‘mission’ plans being handed over to the Treasury in late spring, before being confirmed when the Review is published in June. 

Education will be watching developments carefully. “Expect reports of massive rows between the Treasury and spending departments as the implications of the tight spending plans announced in the October budget become clear”, reckoned IfS’s Paul Johnson. 

The IfS has been looking at education spending in England in its latest big report this week, and it’s not pretty. It’s broadly a tale of desperately trying to catch up on a decade or more of funding decline, coupled with urgent new challenges, ranging from the rising cost of special needs provision to the value of student tuition fees. 

The report was launched at an event entitled ‘Education in the 2025 Spending Review: impossible choices?’ Links below, but the title says it all.

Also announced last year, and set to emerge in the coming weeks, is a new post-16 skills strategy. As described by the Education Secretary, “we will create a clear and coordinated strategy for post-16 education and skills, making sure it works with employers to meet the needs of the future”. 

It’s likely to add more details on the Growth and Skills Levy, with levy funding directed more towards young people and entry-level training, as Tom Richmond argued in a briefing for the Social Market Foundation this week.

We should also expect an update on the government’s Industrial Strategy, following the completion of consultation at the end of last November. And a range of measures following last autumn’s Get Britain Working White Paper, including implementation of a new Youth Guarantee and of eight trailblazers bringing together local work, health and skills support. 

As for things announced just before Christmas, three stand out.

These include, first, the government’s new Bill for schools and young people, the Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Bill. 

The Bill had its Second Reading this week in the midst of the furore on child protection. 

It contains some important measures on academy requirements, council responsibilities, home education and children’s social care among other things. 

The Education Secretary heralded it as “a crucial step forward in our mission to protect all children”, but the Opposition was concerned, among other things, about its impact on the schools system, and in particular on the future for academies. Conservative MP Neil O’Brien called it "an act of pure vandalism". The Times in its editorial, labelled it a Bill 'that will overturn the progress made in raising England’s standing in education'.  Former Schools Minister Sir Nick Gibb said the Education Secretary “had clearly been hanging out with the wrong crowd”. 

The government has also promised to bring forward an English Devolution Bill that will, according to the Deputy PM, “initiate the biggest transfer of power out of Westminster to England’s regions this century”. And it’s due to release a White Paper on immigration, looking in particular at how to train Brits to fill jobs dependent on immigrant labour. 

Second, and also announced just before Christmas and perhaps of more immediate concern for many, Ofsted has this week been trialling its new approach to inspection, ahead of formal consultation on the new framework due later this month.

Chief Inspector Sir Martyn Oliver confirmed arrangements when he appeared before the Education Committee this week, where he identified SEND as the biggest issue facing schools. It’s ‘the burning bush’ in schools, he said.

He also spent some time talking about the new report card system, for which consultation will start shortly, and about safeguarding, for which the government want annual spot checks.

And third, and talking of the Education Committee, it announced just before Christmas what it called ‘a major new inquiry’, focused on finding solutions to the crisis in SEND. 

As the Committee Chair explained, “we now want to move beyond simply pointing out the problems, and focus on finding solutions that are realistic and practical for the government to implement”. 

It has launched a call for evidence by 30 January 2025.

Before we leave this roundup of things to look out for this year, a word on HE, where along with a revised international education strategy and consultation on the Office for Students’ new Strategy, two things stand out.

First, the relentless quest for financial sustainability, with the release of recommendations from the Transformation and Efficiency Taskforce, set up, as the name suggests, to look at further ways for universities to work together and develop efficiencies – and with a sector summit promised for May as a focal point.

And second, a policy paper from government, promised for this summer, probably after the Spending Review and likely to be based around the five priorities set out by the Education Secretary in her letter to vice-chancellors last November. 

These included: expanding access and improving outcomes for disadvantaged students; making a stronger contribution to economic growth; playing a greater civic role in communities; raising the bar on teaching standards; and ‘a programme of sustained efficiency and reform’. Impossible to disagree with, but hard to deliver, as summed up by Wonkhe.

Finally, and briefly, a quick run through what else has been happening in the various parts of education this week. 

In schools, the Independent Schools Council continued to raise concerns about the introduction of VAT on independent school fees from this week. 

The i-newspaper reported that private school fees may have to rise again later this year. 'A September fee increase will be the third rise in just over a year, placing further strain on parents already struggling to keep their children in private schools', it reported.

In FE, the November GCSE results published this week saw improvements in maths but a fall in English, with passes down from 40.3% to 34.9%, prompting further debate about 16+ resits and the case for alternatives.

As the AoC explained, 'we are hopeful that the ongoing curriculum and assessment review will shine a light on what qualifications are appropriate for this cohort of students to ensure they can go on to succeed in life beyond college'.

The Learning and Work Institute highlighted gulfs in skills and qualification levels in different parts of the country in a new report. 

'The risk', it said, 'is a tale of two countries: highly skilled London and the south east, which compares well to leading international comparators; and a higher concentration of lower qualifications elsewhere, with those areas dropping further down the international league tables'. 

A growing issue for the government’s latest devolution plans.

And talking of devolution, the AoC and Bell Foundation reported on the important role that ESOL provision can play in supporting local communities and addressing national skills shortages. 

They called for a new policy framework for ESOL, with funding from the immigration skills charge put into ESOL provision to meet local needs. 

In HE, the House of Commons Library Service published an interesting briefing on trends in student numbers in HE in recent years.

Broadly, they’ve been blooming for domiciled 18-year-olds, but are less flourishing for other groups, such as p/t, postgrad and mature students. The picture on international students is more mixed following political moves.

YouGov reported on its polling among graduates about the cost of tuition fees and questions of value for money.

Graduates, particularly in health and science subjects, felt that a degree could help them with future earnings, but were less sure that the fee price represented value for money. 

HEPI’s own snap poll on the latest fee increase equally unsurprisingly found little support among students for higher fees.

Links to most of these stories below starting with the week’s headlines.

General:

• Business confidence. The British Chambers of Commerce published the results of its latest poll of business sentiment, taken towards the end of last year and showing business confidence at its lowest level since the Truss mini-budget, especially in retail and hospitality, with firms generally worried about tax and NI increases. 
• Jobs 2025. The World Economic Forum (WEF), published its latest landmark Future of Jobs Report ahead of the Davos Summit, arguing that tech development, green transition, and economic and demographic shifts are ‘reshaping’ the current global labour market, and listing 15 professions likely to see the fastest growth and decline by 2030 – with teaching and nursing professionals among the top 15 and many admin and routine jobs among those set to decline.
• Child poverty. The Resolution Foundation argued in a new briefing that more should be done through the government’s forthcoming child poverty strategy, to help not just workless families, but also working families, particularly those on low hours/wages and where a second earner is ready to work, as a way of relieving child poverty.

HE:

• Funding. The Institute for Fiscal Studies argued that the recent index-linked increase in tuition fees had provided ‘only a slight reprieve for university finances’, as it published its annual report on education spending, pointing to further challenges around student maintenance; international student fee income; the increase in employer NIC; and student numbers generally, as all likely to add pressures on institutional finances.
• Fee polling. The HE Policy Institute (HEPI) reported on a commissioned snap-poll of students following the recent inflation-linked increase in the tuition fee finding little support for the increase, albeit with variable support for the increase in maintenance support.
• Value for money. YouGov published the results of its latest poll among graduates, showing many acknowledging that higher education was useful for their future careers, although more for STEM subjects than others, but with many feeling that it came at a financial cost and didn’t always reflect value for money. 
• New year, new hopes. The Times Higher suggested that ‘2025 could be a make-or-break year for university policy’ as it reported on the views of leading HE players on what the year ahead might bring, with many pointing to continuing uncertainty in the sector, but with hopes around research, skills, international growth and the spending review.
• Higher level apprenticeships. Policy commentator Tom Richmond called in a new briefing for the Social Market Foundation, for management training and for those qualified at L6 and above to be excluded from accessing apprenticeship levy funding, and for such funding to be re-directed towards young people and entry-level training.
• Student numbers. The House of Commons Library Service reported on trends in student numbers in HE over recent years, pointing to buoyant figures for f/t undergraduates in recent years, helped by rising numbers of 18-year-olds, but with a less rosy picture for other groups including p/t, mature and postgrads, and a mixed picture for international groups.

Tweets and posts of note:

• “Great start back to school. I just signed off my first work email of 2025 as Crisis rather than Chris” | @ChrisYoules.
• “Going back after a proper holiday without an INSET day should be illegal. Going back after a proper holiday without an INSET day with Parents' Evening three days later should be doubly illegal” | @MBDscience.
• “Shout out to everyone who’s secretly(?) hoping for a snow day tomorrow but knows full well there won’t be one because life is never that kind to you” | @UnofficialOA.
• “How do people WFH get anything done???I had to fight every fibre of my being to not nap, eat every packet of crisps in the house or watch Homes Under The Hammer” | @LeeBraganza.
• “Is there anything harder in the primary maths curriculum than trying to convince children that a rectangle does not have 4 lines of symmetry? | @secretHT1.
• “When I taught maths PGCE, I estimated that it took beginning teachers around 4 hours to come up with a half-way decent lesson plan” | @dylanwiliam.
• “I heard the Canadian PM resigned. I don't know if it's Trudeau” | @ClaireHanna.

A selection of quotes that merit attention:

• “On current plans, most areas of education will be asked to find real-terms savings after 2025–26” – the IfS reports on education spending in England.
• “But we cannot go on like this. It is death by a thousand cuts. The government must recognise the importance of improved investment in education” – ASCL responds to the latest IfS report on education spending.
• “Labour is putting education back at the heart of national life, starting with our Children’s Wellbeing & Schools Bill beginning its journey through Parliament this week” – the Education Secretary tees up the latest Education Bill.
• “The Schools Bill is an onslaught on the combination of freedom and accountability that has driven improvement” – Conservative MP Neil O’Brien with a different perspective on the Bill.
• “I don’t have any plans to ban social media for under-16s” – the Technology Secretary sets out his position on smartphones, arguing they can bring benefits to teens.
• “As we begin 2025 there is a distinct lack of clarity around the government’s approach to schools” – Sam Freedman reflects on schools policy for the coming year.
• “Analytical thinking remains the most sought-after core skill among employers, with seven out of 10 companies considering it as essential in 2025. This is followed by resilience, flexibility and agility, along with leadership and social influence” – the World Economic Forum reports on jobs and skills of the future.
• “We do not see safeguarding as the biggest issue in schools. I would say that, by far the needs of SEND children is a much bigger need in schools" – Ofsted Chief Inspector Sir Martyn Oliver in discussion with the Education Committee.
• “Britain is getting older, but not at an even rate. The coast and the countryside, which were already older, are ageing fastest. In contrast, many major cities across the midlands and the north are getting younger” – the Resolution Foundation looks at ageing patterns in Britain, finding London the only major city getting older.

• 2025 predictions. 61% of Brits are optimistic that 2025 will be better for them personally than 2024 was. That’s down on last year and well below the figure of 71% for the rest of the world. Perhaps we’re just feeling a bit more gloomy here in the UK at the start of the new year. Either way, the details come from the Ipsos Mori poll of predictions for 2025, one of a number of forecasts for this time of year but with some interesting results. 61% think Sir Keir Starmer will still be PM at the end of the year but just half think Kemi Badenoch will still be Leader of the Opposition. 48% believe their financial situation will improve, 60% reckon AI will lead to significant job losses, nobody’s quite sure whether an Oasis reunion will ever happen and 54% say Man City won’t be relegated. Links to the full set of results can be found here

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Steve Besley

Disclaimer: Education Eye is intended to help colleagues keep up to date with national developments in the education sector. Information is correct at the time of writing and is offered in good faith. No liability is accepted by Steve Besley or EdCentral for decisions made on the basis of any information provided.