Steve Besley's Education Eye: week ending 28 March 2025

What's happened this week?

Important stories across the board:

It’s all been about the nation’s finances this week with education caught up in some early dramatic headlines.

‘Brace for impact,’ wrote the Labour news platform at the start of the week. ‘Worst cuts in a generation on way for education,’ blasted the i-newspaper. Possible cuts to anything from dance schemes to universal free meals for infants, added The Times.

It left many in education fearing the worst when the Chancellor came to deliver her health check on the economy in the middle of the week. "If this government intends on making cuts to education, they will need to be clear about what it is schools are to stop doing,” the NAHT said, making its position clear.

In the event, as most economic commentators pointed out, the current financial circumstances meant the Chancellor had little room to do anything too dramatic.

"This was just about the smallest fiscal event Rachel Reeves could have managed in the context of her fiscal rules and the minor forecast downgrade presented to her by the OBR,” the IfS’s Paul Johnson explained.

No rabbits out of the hat then. This was, as the Chancellor reminded us, just an update after all.

So what are we to make of it all? There’s been lots of excellent analysis but when it comes to education, arguably three points stand out.

First, it’s what lies ahead now that counts.

This includes the Spending Review in June and the Budget in Autumn let alone potential cuts in the later stages of this parliament. All in the context of the oft-quoted continuing global uncertainty.

Work has been going on for the Spending Review since last autumn ahead of its publication in June. It’s the next critical moment for services like education.

Not only will it set out dept day-to-day spending plans to 2028/29 and capital spending until the year after but it will also see among other things publication of a Child Poverty Strategy, a new Industrial Strategy and Infrastructure Plan, with HE and FE strategy papers not far off.

Para 2.50 in the accompanying Treasury Report tees up the importance of the Review. “This will not be a business-as-usual Spending Review. The government has fundamentally reformed the process to make it zero-based, collaborative, and data-led, in order to make sure that the government is seizing the biggest opportunities to rewire the state and deliver the Plan for Change.” We get the point.

Second, one of the three ambitions listed in the Report was public service reform where the Chancellor announced the creation of a £3.2bn Transformation Fund to drive much of this.

Some of this, around the NHS and civil service reform, is under way but the Report contains some aspects of interest to education as well.

For example on pay the Report confirms that “over the medium-term, above inflation public sector pay increases should be accompanied by productivity gains.” On dept admin budgets ‘these will need to be reduced by 15% by the end of the decade.’ And on overall dept expenditure, this will grow in real terms to 2029/30 but slower at 1.2% pa than envisaged last autumn.

The Report points to an increase in capital spending but it all feels very tight.

And third, the Report had a lot to say on planning, infrastructure, welfare, defence and so on but was there really nothing to see on education?

Well, schools, as one Opposition MP pointed out didn’t get a mention leaving ASCL to remark that “nothing in the spring statement changes the bleak financial situation being faced by schools and colleges.”

For FE and skills, the Report added more details to the earlier announcement of extra funding (£625m over 4 years) and support for construction skills and reiterated the £1bn funding for helping people back into work. Both welcomed as before but as AELP noted, nothing new about firing up skills providers generally and a continuing worry about unprotected budgets.

As for HE, the Report talked briefly again about AI opportunities, start-ups and the potential of the Oxford-Cambridge Growth Corridor but that was about it.

It left the Russell Group pointing to its Spending Review submission instead and the UCU unimpressed. “Our world-leading higher education sector is facing a catastrophic crisis, threatening more than ten thousand jobs.”

In summary, education now awaits the coming months with varying degrees of anticipation as the three-year Spending Review takes shape.

Time for a quick look at what else has been happening in education this week.

In schools, the government followed up the Spring Statement by promising more places for SEND provision and school repairs.

The latter perhaps following a survey from ASCL this week showing ‘large parts of the school estate in a shocking condition.’

And the former following FFT Education Datalab data this week showing the steep rise in the number of pupils with Education, Health and Care (EHC) Plans and the gaps in provision in some parts of the country.

Ofsted’s reform plans have again been in the news this week with ASCL issuing a strident response to the consultation on the reforms saying it couldn’t support them in their current form and calling for a year’s delay to allow for some re-thinking.

Its biggest beef was about the 5-point scale.

“We do not think that inspectors can reliably make nuanced graded judgements across eight to ten evaluation areas on a 5-point scale, and believe that this will undermine trust in the inspection process and ultimately lead to more complaints and challenges.”

It suggested instead a ‘3+-point scale – causing concern, attention needed and secure – with exemplary practice in any area optionally included as a narrative description.’

Ofsted has said it’s up for discussion on the consultation responses and has published commissioned research suggesting that parents are comfortable with many of the changes.

It may need to start booking meeting time and strong coffee.

Elsewhere the Education Endowment Foundation published revised guidance on ‘deploying TAs.’ “Supporting TAs to have maximum impact is complex, involving a range of people and actions,” they wrote. Hopefully this evidence-informed guidance will help.

NFER reported that a more individual approach to pupil absences rather than sanctions or attempts at incentives was needed to help tackle school absentees. Unions agreed. “We agree that a one-size-fits-all approach is not the way forward, and school leaders must be free to tailor policies to the needs and characteristics of their cohort.”

And if you want to know anything about how the state school system operates, or perhaps should operate, in England, the House of Commons Library Service has published a useful primer. Link below in the Schools Section.

In FE, two important announcements from government this week have seen funding support for the increased NIC costs for post-16 providers this year confirmed, and a £600m funding package announced as a sweetener by the Treasury to help strengthen construction skills.

More significantly for many, the latest apprenticeship achievement rates showed a big increase on the previous year and the Skills Minister was keen to offer her thanks. “The progress to date is testament to our partnership and the hard work of colleges, HEIs, ITPs and employer providers.”

In other news, the National Audit Office (NAO) highlighted many of the challenges in the introduction of T levels as it published a new report on the matter.

It recommended that, “the DfE develops ways to understand the potential impacts on the demand, benefits and cost of T Levels before making wider strategic decisions around the development of the technical qualifications landscape.”

The NFER with the Hg Foundation highlighted a sharpening pattern of job opportunities in the tech sector.

In what’s intended to be a series of such reports over the summer, the authors pointed to not just a drop in the number of job adverts particularly in an area like software development over recent months, but also around skill requirements.

As NFER Research Director Luke Bocock explained “if current trends continue, there will be some areas of growing demand for young people looking to enter the tech workforce, but there will be fewer opportunities overall.” 

And the LLE and MEG bodies called for “a re-setting of the status quo between the college and university sectors” as a way of driving forward higher-level skills provision through the FE sector.

In HE, the big story of the week has been the resurrection of the franchise issue amid concerns about fraud in the student loan system following an inquiry and headline splash by The Sunday Times.

The paper claimed that foreign gangs were allegedly ‘enrolling on degree courses every year and taking out a loan without any intention of ever paying it back.’

The Education Secretary announced an immediate investigation by the Public Sector Fraud Authority. “I will not tolerate a penny of taxpayers’ money being misused.”

The story raises further issues about regulation, franchised provision, and international recruitment among other things. Jim Dickinson on Wonkhe and Jonathan Simons on LinkedIn both have excellent summaries of it all.

In Scotland, where free tuition has come under scrutiny following funding worries at a couple of Scottish universities, the Carnegie Trust, which is looking into future funding for universities, published the results of its commissioned survey into funding and attitudes to HE north of the border.

Just under half (48%) of respondents supported charging tuition fees based on the ability to pay but just under 30% said they disagreed. Most valued the opportunity afforded by university but particularly when linked to gaining better skills or a job.

As the Chief Exec of the Trust summed it up “this research shows that there is room for a more nuanced and open discussion on priorities for funding.”

And talking of long-running issues, QAA published a new briefing on the potential for a sector-wide credit-transfer system for UKHE. Its case study evidence found considerable support for the concept but equally the need for what it called ‘significant external motivation’ to help it take the plunge. Over to you government.

Links to most of these stories below starting with the week’s headlines.

General:

• Spring statement entrée. The Chancellor announced a growth taster ahead of her spring statement in the shape of a 4-year £600m funding package to help train up 60,000+ skilled construction workers, many through Bootcamps and colleges, to help deliver the government’s building plans.
• Spring Statement Report. The Treasury published its full Report accompanying the Chancellor’s Spring Statement, setting out the government’s stated ambitions around defence, public service reform and growth, along with the policy decisions and costings in each case.
• The big picture. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) published its traditional summary report on the UK economy and the fiscal outlook used to inform the Treasury in its deliberations, showing a halving in projected growth for this year before improvements later, a ‘peaking’ in inflation and unemployment for 2025/26, and a projected lowering in productivity, leading to a likely budget headroom of £9.9bn by 2029/30, the same as previously.
• IfS view. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IfS) published its detailed day after analysis of the Spring Statement concluding that the Chancellor had been (over) focused on her fiscal rules, had actually announced little that was new, and with ‘little headroom and an uncertain environment,’ was likely to face a difficult Spending Review.
• Resolution Foundation view. The Resolution Foundation published its assessment of the Spring Statement arguing that the Chancellor was right to take action but wrong ‘to concentrate the pain so heavily on a relatively small number of disability claimants.’
• Spending Review submission. The TUC underlined its support for government plans to grow the economy and make work pay as it published its submission to the Spending Review, calling in particular for strengthening the quality of public services and investing in industries of the future.
• Living in poverty. The government published latest figures for Households Below Average Income (HBAI) showing a fall in real household incomes over the last year with an increase in the percentage of children in ‘food insecure households’ and 8.1% people in working households living in relative poverty.
• Living standards. The Joseph Rowntree Foundation highlighted the extent and impact of the current ‘crisis in living standards’ with average household disposable incomes still below those of 5 years ago, calling for an immediate plan for tackle hardship and a longer-term plan for an Essentials Guarantee in Universal Credit.
• Children’s voices. The children’s commissioner welcomed the first anniversary of the publication of the results from her Big Ask survey which brought together many of the key issues concerning children and which have since been put forward in various quarters, promising to continue the work with a Childhood Festival next week.  
• LA survey. The Local Government Association (LGA) reported that three-quarters of English local authorities could struggle to set a balanced budget this year and could find it even harder next year with social care a continuing concern, as they published the results of their latest survey of chief finance officers.

HE:

• Spring Statement Vacuum. The Times Higher reported on concerns from across the sector that the Chancellor had offered nothing in her Spring Statement for UKHE, with university finances, R/D and the importance of higher-level skills all largely ignored.
• Student loans concerns. The Education Secretary responded to weekend media concerns about potential fraud in the student loans system by pointing the finger at the previous administration and announcing an immediate inquiry by the Public Sector Fraud Authority.
• Funding in Scotland. The Carnegie Trust published the results of a commissioned survey into views on funding HE in Scotland as concerns about funding pressures mount, finding broad support for some form of help with fee costs but based on need and on employment outcomes.
• Credit transfer system. QAA reported on the potential for developing a credit-transfer system at scale for UKHE, finding considerable survey evidence support for the concept but equally recognition of the barriers facing any implementation.
• Freedom of speech. The OfS reported on its findings into the application of freedom of speech and academic freedom at the University of Sussex in light of recent concerns, concluding that the university ‘had breached two OfS conditions of registration,’ resulting in a hefty fine.

Tweets and posts of note:

• “The push for schools to do all they can re attendance risks becoming silly when Mr & Mrs Jones will be taking their children out of school regardless in May for 2 weeks as they’ll save £3k on their summer break. There needs to be a sensible line regarding the work schools do” -@Strickomaster.
• “A parent just got their phone out during a parents evening appointment to text... I stopped talking and said "i'll wait" the HORROR on this parents face” -@GeeTheExplorer.
• “I love being a teacher but giving English teachers 10 days (while teaching all day and on top of other responsibilities) to mark 56 literature essays all between 2-3 sides of A4 each is actually irresponsible” -@TeacherBusy.
• “Why are you getting involved?!’ is my go-to classroom phrase- used if I’m telling a student off and another chips in with their two cents. The kids find it funny. Last week a couple told me they’ve started saying it to each other and now I’ve reached peak influencer level” -@UnofficialOA.
• “Group work is ‘not a waste of time’ when used for specific reasons in specific contexts. Mind you I do wonder whether staff meetings are a waste of time…” -@Trivium21c.
• “Many job ads in China discourage older workers from applying. By older, they mean people over 35” -@TheEconomist.

A selection of quotes that merit attention:

• “No, I don’t think that’s the answer” – the PM is asked if we need a minister for men.
• “Since the October forecast, developments in outturn data and indicators of business, consumer and market sentiment have, on balance, been negative for the economic outlook” – the OBR reflects on the economic outlook in its accompanying report for the Treasury.
• “A Sabrina Carpenter Statement. The content wasn’t very original, it barely covered the essentials and the Chancellor couldn’t be straight about the cost” – Michael Gove on the Spring Statement.
• “A can-kicking exercise” – Oxford Economics on the Spring Statement.
• “With living standards for the poorest under continuing assault, the government needs to protect people from harm with the same zeal as it attempts to build its reputation for fiscal competence” – the Chief Exec of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation on the Spring Statement.
• “The story of growth is, I am afraid, quite clear. It has slowed markedly in the last fifteen years or so, and this has affected the advance of living standards” – the Governor of the Bank of England in a speech on the economy at Leicester University this week.
• “We will bring in tough new laws to ensure the OfS can quickly stop bad actors gaming the system once and for all” – the Education Secretary takes swift action to stamp out suspected fraud in the student loans system.
• “School leavers should get a job on a building site rather than turn to a life on benefits” – the education secretary extols a life in the construction industry in an article in The Telegraph.
• "We are pleased to hear that the government has listened to the arguments we presented and decided to intervene, and we will continue to call out any attempts to weaken or threaten our members terms and conditions” – the NAHT welcomes the government’s intervention against proposals on swapping pension contributions for salary increases.
• “We do not think that Ofsted can continue with these proposals in their current form and carry the trust of the sector” – ASCL goes in hard on Ofsted’s inspection reform proposals.
• “Learning an instrument and getting up on stage – whether in school or a community club – is now a luxury not every child can afford” – the Ed Sheeran Foundation calls for funding for music in schools.
• “The Big Ambition reached nearly 367,000 children, young people and adults responding on their behalf. Together, they have become the pillars of my work and a huge bank of evidence directly from children, about children” – the children’s commissioner celebrates the publication of the Big Ask survey results one year on.
• “The average 12-year-old now spends 29 hours a week on their phone, the equivalent to a part-time job” – figures quoted by an MP in a Westminster debate on children and smartphones.
• “I don’t get a salary for scrubbing the bathroom, my husband doesn’t put in an invoice for hoovering the living room, and my kids don’t earn a quid every time they tidy their toys away” -an i-newspaper columnist reckons kids shouldn’t get pocket money for doing household chores.

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Steve Besley

Disclaimer: Education Eye is intended to help colleagues keep up to date with national developments in the education sector. Information is correct at the time of writing and is offered in good faith. No liability is accepted by Steve Besley or EdCentral for decisions made on the basis of any information provided.