Steve Besley's Education Eye: week ending 25 August 2023

What's happened this week?

Important stories across the board:

Another big exam results week. 

The GCSE/L2 results released this week have followed a similar pattern to those for A level and L3 last week with a return to pre-pandemic grading, in England at least, triggering a fall in top grades.

More on the GCSE/L2 results below. Also on this week’s policy focus on education and what that has brought us.

In other news this week, Ofsted announced what it termed ‘a process and impact evaluation’ of the education inspection framework (EIF). It has developed a theory of change about how the EIF should work and what impact it should be having to support the evaluation, which in turn will take 2/3 years. 

Elsewhere for schools, the exam board AQA published its response to the government’s call for evidence on the use of AI in education, which closed this week. The AQA paper provides a useful summary of many of the issues around AI in education at present and concludes that 'AI tools will always need close human supervision'. Further details below.

FE this week has been facing two issues. First, the announcement by government of three new 16-19 colleges, based on Eton lines. The Sixth Form Colleges Association wondered whether they were in places of greatest need. And second, the perennial issue of English and maths GCSE resits and the impact on colleges, which often have to pick up the pieces. The AoC believes the need for such resits this year could result in considerable demand ('an additional 38,000 for English and 21,000 for Maths') at a time of substantial pressure on staffing and resources.

In HE, the Clearing process has been continuing for university entry, with UCAS providing daily data updates and the Times Higher reporting some concern about a potential drop in UK entrants. HEPI published its annual report on how many serving world leaders studied at a higher level in countries other than their own – the UK is a major provider, second in the list. This Soft-Power Index, as HEPI calls it, is a useful reminder of the wider value of UKHE.  

There’s full coverage of the GCSE/L2 qualification results on the various websites, but for the moment, here are five of the top stories emerging from the results generally.

• The fall in top grades. The issue here has been whether the government in England was right to ‘force’ as some headlines put it, a return to 2019 grading levels, or whether they should have ‘glided back’ gently as Wales has done. In fairness, the government and Ofqual have always been clear that this is a carefully staged and managed process, with protections built in. A level and L3 teachers last week were fairly ambivalent about how fair a return to 2019 standards was. According to Teacher Tapp, 'Our results revealed a three-way-split: a third of you agreed that they were fair; a third disagreed; and a third sat in the middle'. As things stand, the proportion of candidates in England getting a high grade, that’s a 7/A and above, fell from 26.3% last year to 22.4% this year – but nearer to the 20.8% of 2019. And actually most English state schools outperformed their 2019 levels.

• English and maths. A further issue with the return to 2019 levels has been a potentially higher number failing to achieve a standard grade 4 (old C) in GCSE English and maths. This appears to be down 5 pp on last year, with maths, according to the National Reference Test, the main problem. Students who don’t gain the grade are expected to resit them until they are 18. It leads to what The Guardian called ‘a flood of demotivated young people forced to take their resits’, often in college, and often, as seems to have been the case this year, with no great improvement in their results. Resits for GCSE maths in England this year were down 4.8% on 2019 to 16.4% gaining a grade 4. The government argues that English and maths resits can ‘transform lives’ but ASCL’s Geoff Barton called for ‘a more humane system’, with a ‘new style of English and maths taken at the point of readiness.’It’s not a new issue, but it warrants a fresh look.

• Attainment gaps. Exam results each year provide an important moment to reflect on educational inequalities across regions, school types, socio-economic groups and so on. Results this year from both last week and this suggest a widening regional divide. According to the BBC, 'the gap between the regions with the highest and lowest proportions of top grades has grown from 9.3 percentage points in 2019 to 10.8 percentage points this year'. The Sutton Trust has suggested this reflects ‘patterns of regional prosperity’, with Covid, which hit hardest in many poorer regions, an added factor. The government has pointed to additional disadvantage funding provided for schools, but Labour has suggested that it’s ‘further proof that levelling up isn’t working’. Either way, it reinforces the case for greater catch-up funding and support being targeted at disadvantaged regions.

• Subject entry trends. Both the British Council and the British Academy welcomed the uptake in Spanish and other modern foreign languages. A further 4.7% drop in entries for German GCSE remains a concern, although the Council, among others, is working on a project to improve things here. According to FFT Education Datalab, the subjects with the biggest increase in entries this year were Statistics, Business Studies and Social Science subjects, including history and economics. The government pointed to a 3.9% increase in entries for EBacc subjects and singled out a 13.5% increase since 2019 in the number of pupils taking computer science. On the downside, performing arts and design entries were down, although, as many have pointed out, there are technical and vocational alternatives available here.

• Overall reactions. Schools Minister Nick Gibb congratulated staff and students generally, but added that ‘the results were a testament to the government’s longstanding work to drive up standards.’ Unions saw things differently, using the occasion to blame the government for many of the current problems. The NASUWT for instance argued that 'Ministers must take responsibility for their decisions, which have contributed to a widening in the attainment gap between the most disadvantaged pupils and their peers'. Long Covid was an issue for many students and Louis Hodge from the Education Policy Institute reminded people that 'while grades have returned to normal, the schooling experience of pupils picking up their results today has been anything but'. Russell Hobby of Teach First, like the Sutton Trust, pointed to the challenges faced by those in disadvantaged areas. 'When grades drop overall, it’s young people growing up in poverty who are most likely to miss out'. Finally, one happy student told BBC Breakfast, "I think I have a cake waiting at home for me." While London Underground adopted a comforting tone, posting this on its station boards on results morning. 'Congratulations if you got the grades that you wanted and try not to worry if you didn’t. Whatever your grades are worth you are worth a million times more'.

• Education, education, education. Quite a week for education. It's brought us not just the important L2/GCSE results, but also provided the political theme of the week. Each week over the summer the government and the Opposition have been selecting a key topic from their list of five priorities and using it as a policy theme. The government’s already done health, housing, and small boats. This week it was the turn of education. So Monday saw a focus on childcare, with an underlining of recent announcements there. Tuesday brought the announcement of 12,000 new Free Schools in disadvantaged parts of the country, including those three new 16-19 Eton Star schools. Wednesday highlighted plans to test out special needs reforms, and Thursday of course brought full commentary on the exam results, with the government claiming credit where possible. It’s too early to see any of this as part of an emergent general election manifesto, but there have been distinct signs of education policy manoeuvring this week. Three in particular. First, Keir Starmer argued this week that "he wouldn’t be able to afford to go to university today". This has prompted speculation that Labour may be readying for an announcement on tuition fees at its Conference next month. Second, former adviser Mark Lehain’s full-on defence of free schools on the conservativehome site this week appears to position the government’s Academy/Free School model as a key tenet in its policy divide with Labour. And third – and a sign of revving up on core area of policy – early years organisations joined forces this week to work with all political parties to make the case for early education and care. It feels like ducks being lined up.

• More on AI. Where are we going with AI – particularly when it comes to its use in education? A couple of months ago the education secretary launched a call for evidence to help inform further debate. That call closed this week, and the exam board AQA – one of a number that have been doing a lot of developmental work in this area – published its formal response during the week. It’s an interesting read. The headline message was that AI can help with matters like teacher workloads, student research, and in producing items for assessment. But, in summary, 'we need to remember that AI tools are a bit like actors in Casualty: they can learn to use the language of doctors and sound like they have medical expertise, but they cannot perform an operation'. It was a neat description of where we are at present. So just what are the main challenges to using generative AI? The paper lists four. These include generating factually inaccurate answers – hallucinations as they are often called. Also, a potential for bias, inconsistency, and appearing closed or unable to react to alternatives. The paper goes on to look at further uses and concerns and calls ultimately for more training resources, quality standards, and equality of access. But the message remains: ‘steady as you go’ in terms of development.

Finally, and back to results, this tweet has brought a smile to many. “4 years ago I was doing trollies at Sainsburys on a Monday night. I left, worked hard and got a degree from the University of Sheffield. Now I’m doing trollies at Waitrose on a Friday night. Never give up”. Progression of a sort perhaps. 

The top headlines of the week:

• ‘GCSEs in England hit by high absence levels and mental ill health, say heads’ (Monday). 
• ‘Keir Starmer says Labour is working on a fairer student fees system’ (Tuesday).
• ‘GCSE wait brings more anxiety than ever’ (Wednesday).
• ‘GCSE grades fall in England after anti-grade inflation plans forced through’ (Thursday). 
• ‘GCSE English and maths resits to rise by thousands’ (Friday).

 General:

• AI summit. The government announced that its pioneering world summit on artificial intelligence safety would take place on November 1 and 2 at Bletchley Park with preparations currently in “full flow.”
• Top pay. The High Pay Centre published its latest report into the pay of CEO’s in top companies showing that pay for the median CEO was now 118 times higher than that of the median UK f/t worker, calling as a result for wider representation on remuneration committees and more use of profit shares so that all staff could benefit from profits made. 
• Returning to work. The New Economics Foundation (NEF) called for a rethink on the role of Jobcentre work coaches following research indicating an undue focus on policing benefits as opposed to helping people return to work. 
• Early Years. Leading organisations, charities and bodies including Save the Children, UNICEF and the Early Years Alliance came together to form a new Early Education and Childcare Coalition (EEC) with the aim of prioritising early years issues among political parties ahead of the next general election.

FE/Skills:

• GCSEs 2023. FE Week pointed to a fall in the pass rate this year for resits in English and maths, over 4% in each case on 2019 although with the number taking resits in 2019 being much smaller. 
• English and maths resits. The AoC commented on this year’s results for GCSE English and maths resits showing that although the overall percentage achievement had dropped compared to last year, the number of students actually achieving a result had improved
• 16-19. The government announced the creation of three Eton Star Sixth Form Colleges, to open over the next 3/4 years in Dudley, Teeside and Oldham respectively with support, both financial and curricular, from Eton College. 

HE:

• 2023 University entry. The Times Higher reflected on how admissions figures for UKHE were looking one week on from A level/L3 results day, pointing to a potential fall in the number of UK entrants likely to affect some universities and creating in the words of Data expert Mark Corver ‘strategic uncertainty’ for the sector generally.
• Tuition fees. The Student Loans Company followed up the government’s recent statement by setting out the latest rates and repayment thresholds for various forms of student loan this year, including the new Plan 5 for undergraduate loans which will see the maximum interest rate held at 7.3% but the repayment threshold at £25,000. 
• Soft-Power. The HE Policy institute (HEPI) published its latest Soft-Power Index listing the number of serving world leaders educated at a higher level in a country other than their own, with the UK coming in at second place by providing for 58 such leaders and closing the gap on the top provider, namely the US.

Tweets and posts of note:

• “Overall in this year’s GCSE results, the proportion of entries graded 7/A or above was 21.6%. This is a decrease of 4.4 percentage points compared to last year, but still slightly above the 20.6% of entries that received the grade or above in 2019” | @ tes
• “Failure of boys to keep up with girls should be of 'national concern', says professor” | @Telegraph
• “Low GCSE grades are not fails, says schools minister | The Times” | @schoolsontap
• “Someone via @TeacherTapp asked us what data says on "how to have the best wellbeing" as a teacher. The answer? Ideally, be a headteacher, married another headteacher, without children, and not be in a pandemic. You may need to rethink some life chances!” | @miss_mcinerney
• “My boss asked me why I only get sick on work days. I said it must be my weekend immune system” | @ThePunnyWorld
• “Absolutely refuse to believe that the parliamentary committee on dog welfare is called the All-Party Parliamentary Dog Advisory Welfare Group, or APDAWG” | @TomChivers

Memorable quotes

A selection of quotes that merit attention:

• “For my daughters, and for every girl in this country, you have made football something for them; you have made them feel they belong on the pitch. So – in a way – you’ve already brought football home” – the PM writes to the Lionesses.
• “Britain has become a land of grotesque extremes” – The TUC responds to the latest report on top CEO’s pay. 
• “There wasn’t any spare money knocking around to fund me going to Leeds” – Keir Starmer on the financial sacrifices needed for going to university.
• “It’s about the distribution of demand rather than the grades” – former UCAS chief executive Mary Curnock Cook on a potential fall in university entry rates from UK applicants.
• “We have pressed DfE throughout to ensure that decisions are based on detailed evidence demonstrating local need for additional places; it doesn’t make sense to double up on what is already available and successful” – the Sixth Form Colleges Association calls for reassurance about the creation of new 16-19 Free Schools.
• “This means that a typical student who would have achieved, for example, a grade 5 in GCSE maths before the pandemic, will be just as likely to get a grade 5 in GCSE maths in 2023, even if their performance in the assessments was a little weaker” – Ofqual explains the grading procedures for this year’s GCSEs.
• “This is baked into the system – there is very little room for it to change – because the percentage of pupils achieving each grade is kept largely consistent from one year to the next” – ASCL’s Geoff Barton on the challenges facing ‘the forgotten third’ of pupils who end up having to resit English and maths GCSE.
• “If policy continues to be ‘one-size-fits-all’, we risk a continuing widening of the gap between the north-east and London” – Schools North East highlights the regional gap in GCSE attainment.
• “We are cutting our children off from direct engagement with any literature not written in English” – conservativehome laments the decline in modern foreign languages in schools.

Other stories

• In praise of older teachers. “Teaching is perfect for the over-50s who want to do something more useful – something that actually matters – with their lives, people in their 50s and older make brilliant teachers”. That’s the view of former FT journalist Lucy Kellaway, who a few years ago at the age of 58 retrained as a teacher before plunging in to teach maths in a school in London. Many have followed her ‘tales from the front line’ over the years as she tackled the tiring travails of a being a classroom teacher and all that went with it. She has since set up a charity to encourage more older people, often retirees, to train as teachers. Now, as the Guardian reported this week, ‘the biggest rise in trainee teachers in England this year has been among the over 55’s.’ So just how easy is it for an older person to train as a teacher and head off into the classroom? The Guardian reported on four such people ranging from a 70-year-old retired nuclear engineer (“I’ll take it year by year”) to a youthful 54-year-old former auto engineer (“I’m used to standing out”). A link is here

• Best broadband deals for students. More from the ever helpful Save the Student website this week, looking on this occasion at the best broadband deals as students prepare for the new term. It takes nine of the leading providers and runs through the average speed, contract details and average monthly costs in each case. It also offers ‘7 ways to get cheaper broadband’ (choose packages with unlimited data) and some useful FAQs. A link to it all is here

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Steve Besley

Disclaimer: Education Eye is intended to help colleagues keep up to date with national developments in the education sector. Information is correct at the time of writing and is offered in good faith. No liability is accepted by Steve Besley or EdCentral for decisions made on the basis of any information provided.