Steve Besley's Education Eye: week ending 05 January 2024

Back to business and a busy 2024 looms if the current new year predictions are anything to go by. 

Much of it focuses on a likely UK general election this year, with May or November emerging as the favoured months, and a Labour 60+ seat majority the likeliest result. 

Migration, economic growth, the cost-of-living, and childcare provision appear to be among the main election policy issues, at least at the moment. Education, as the latest YouGov poll shows, remains down at eighth on the list of voter concerns. 

A key point for many, highlighted last week in a comment piece by Torsten Bell, the Chief Executive at the Resolution Foundation, is that British households will be going into this election poorer than they were coming out of the last one. It could be by ‘as much as £1,200 on average’. “This is something never seen before in modern British history”, according to the author.  

Predictions generally about the UK economy for 2024 remain pretty downbeat. The FT talked of ‘grey gloom’ as it published its annual set of economic forecasts for the year ahead from its survey of leading economists. Its headline that ‘anaemic economy needs, investment, investment, investment’ reflected the general mood.

The National Living Wage rises significantly in April and pay is predicted to improve throughout the year, but mortgage rates and cost-of-living issues mean many households, particularly among the poorest, will continue to suffer. In addition, OBR forecasts at the time of the Autumn Statement suggest inflation will not fall until late in the year, while growth will remain flat throughout the year. 'All of this means', The Guardian explained 'that we could well be heading into a recession'. They weren’t the only ones prepared to use the R word. 

So, yes, a busy year of politics, economics and more, captured in this headline for the year ahead from the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR). 'A year of political change, economic clouds gradually lifting, debt problems lingering, England favourites for a soccer competition, and break dancing a new Olympic sport'.

Where does all this leave education?

There have been plenty of predictions as usual about the role of new technology – closing the attainment gap, the future of assessment, and so on. At the moment, however, the government is grappling with crumbly concrete and the latest teacher pay award, while hoping that local skills planning, the EU Horizon research programme, and free childcare provision bring more positive headlines. 

For Labour, the shadow education secretary has launched her own review of nursery provision in primary schools, while Sir Keir Starmer has included improved opportunities for children among his five big missions for the future.

More to come no doubt, but for the moment, these are some of the more immediate education stories from this week.

For schools, the arrival of Sir Martyn Oliver as Oftsed’s new chief inspector has generated considerable interest. "We will inspect schools with courtesy, professionalism, respect and empathy" he declared on his first day.

His opening move of pausing inspections to allow for mental health awareness training, and proposing a listening programme in response to last month’s coroner’s report into the tragic Ruth Perry case, was widely welcomed. “We welcome this decision and Sir Martyn’s commitment to listening to the profession’s concerns about the current inspection system,” as ASCL’s Geoff Barton put it.

How far a period of pause and reflection will lead to resolving longer-term issues, such as the unpopular single phrase judgments remains to be seen. As Branwen Jeffreys, the BBC’s Education Editor pointed out, the chief inspector’s hands may be tied on much of this. This all may all run for some time.

Elsewhere for schools this week, exams have been a big talking point. 

In a lead story, Pearson Edexcel announced that students will have the choice next summer of sitting their GCSE English Language and Literature exams onscreen. As Managing Director Sharon Hague explained “This absolutely isn’t the end of pen-and-paper exams. It’s about opening up more ways for all students to best show what they know and can do. By 2030, our ambition is for all GCSEs to have both paper-based and on-screen formats”.

The exam board AQA, it may be recalled, announced in October that it was aiming ‘to have digital components in a major subject by 2030’, starting with mocks in GCSE Polish and Italian in 2025, and exams in 2026. OCR, meanwhile, has declared that its Computer Science GCSE will be available to be fully assessed on-screen for candidates starting their GCSEs next year. It’s a fast-moving trend.

As to this summer’s exams, the government confirmed that pupils taking exams in schools affected by RAAC won’t be able to claim special consideration for disrupted learning. 'It is not possible', it said, 'to make changes to exams and assessments for only some groups of students to address the impact of variable disruption to teaching'.

In FE this week, the Learning and Work Institute published an interesting new briefing on adult learning. 'Nine million adults in England lack essential literacy or numeracy skills and will continue to lose out without increased and targeted investment'. The briefing called for more targeted funding and provision for adults in particular communities.

And in HE this week, the government published a commissioned evaluation of the first year of the new Turing Scheme, claiming in the words of the minister that it had become ‘a real game-changer’ for many students. Although not for everyone, according to The Guardian. 

Elsewhere, the start of the year saw the UK rejoin two big EU research programmes, the Times Higher reported on university finances and options for reform, while the HE Policy Institute had an interesting blog from Professor Roger Brown, ‘a scarred veteran of earlier quality wars’, as he described himself, on quality regulation. “There will be no end to this death spiral until student education is once again treated as an experience to be gained rather than as a product to be traded”, he signed off.

Links to most of these stories below starting with the headlines.

The top headlines of the week:

• ‘UK aims to restore standing in EU Horizon science programme (Monday).
• ‘Inspections won’t restart next week as new Ofsted boss launches inquiry’ (Tuesday). 
• ‘No exam help for pupils in RAAC schools, says government (Wednesday).
• ’GCSE English will no longer be handwritten under exam board plans’ (Thursday).
• ‘Government to fund school ‘attendance monitors’ in worst-hit areas of England’ (Friday).

More specifically ...

Schools:

• Ofsted. Sir Martyn Oliver, Ofsted’s new chief inspector, announced a delay in school inspections to allow for inspectors to undertake mental awareness training following the tragic death of Ruth Perry and also declared a major listening programme to help strengthen the relationship with parents and professionals in the future.
• Reforming Ofsted. Former education minister and chair of a recent review of Ofsted, Lord Jim Knight called in a newspaper article for a more humane inspection system for schools, built around the use of report cards rather than single judgements, greater use of peer reviews and a clear duty of care.
• Exams 2025. Pearson announced that subject to regulatory approval, students would be able to sit GCSE English Language and Literature exams onscreen next summer if they so wish, and that all its GCSEs would have an onscreen option by 2030.
• Exams 2024. The government confirmed that it wouldn’t be possible to change exams and assessments this year for specific groups of pupils whose learning had been disrupted by the concrete crisis in schools but that schools could "get in touch with their exam boards for support on a case-by-case basis" where necessary.

FE/Skills:

• Adult skills.The Learning and Work Institute called on the government to fund and support an increased target of 90% of adults to have the essential skills they need by 2035 rather than the current aim of 75%, as it published new modelling showing ‘significant disparities’ in essential skill levels within rather than between regions. 

Important numbers

Not-to-be-missed numbers of the week:

• 20,822. The number of participants in the first year of the new Turing Scheme, short of the original target of 35,000 but hindered by the pandemic, according to an evaluation of the Scheme.
• 15. The number of hours of free childcare the government claims will be available for eligible working parents of two-years from this April, according to the dept’s latest information. 
• £477. The amount the average household spent on groceries over the Christmas period, according to Sky News.

Everything else you need to know ...

What to look out for next week:

• MPs return (Monday 08 January 2024).
• Education Committee evidence session on the impact of screen time on education and wellbeing (Tuesday 09 January 2024).
• Westminster Hall debate on access to free school meals for children with special needs (Wednesday 10 January 2024).