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Steve Besley's Education Eye: week ending 02 February 2024

Welcome to Education Eye, a regular update detailing the policies and stories happening in UK education, compiled by Steve Besley.

What's happened this week?

Important stories across the board:

Some familiar headlines this week with Ofsted, pupil exclusions and international students all hitting the news.

Ofsted first.

This cropped up at the start of the week with the Education Committee publishing its report into Ofsted’s work with schools.

The case for an independent inspectorate, it seems, remains but as the Committee put it “We repeatedly heard that Ofsted has lost the trust of a significant chunk of the teaching profession, and leaders.” So what now?

The general consensus among both MPs and schools is that Ofsted remains at a significant moment in its history and much may depend on how it uses its Big Listen exercise to respond to concerns. As the Committee put it, “the appointment of the new HMCI provides a crucial opportunity to reset and restore trust..”

The Committee picked up on most of the current issues including concerns about the use of single-word judgements, how best to assess safeguarding, the burden let alone the toll of inspections on many staff and put forward a number of helpful recommendations.

Unions appear ready to give it a chance. ASCL talked of “grounds for cautious optimism” although the NEU was more forthright. “We need Ofsted to be replaced altogether by a system of inspection which is supportive, effective and fair. The inspectorate in its current form is none of these things.” That’s how things stand at the moment.

Next, pupil exclusions, never an easy topic, and the subject of two reports this week from the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) think tank. 

For many people, school closures during the pandemic have had a dire effect on many families and young people. Pitch in the cost-of-living crisis and associated surge in mental health cases and it’s no wonder that the reports talk of ‘an alarming trajectory’ in terms of numbers suspended or excluded. “The suspension rate has surged in the wake of the pandemic, reaching the highest level on record. Permanent exclusions mirror these trends, returning to their pre-pandemic highs, with no sign of abating.”

As Edward Timpson MP, who carried out the last major review of exclusions just before the pandemic and who wrote the Foreword to both reports said, ‘exclusions from school have profound and lasting impacts on the lives of young people.’ They also raise questions about what role mainstream schools should play, the availability of alternative provision, the vulnerability of certain groups and so on.

The reports conclude with a number of recommendations, some to tackle the pressure on schools, some to support teachers and families and some to help providers and agencies operate more effectively but it all remains a challenge and future governments will need to give it priority treatment,

And third, international students, a story that’s been rumbling around again this week following last weekend’s Sunday Times claim that Russell Group universities were lowering grades for international students who pay higher fees to land places, in some cases using agents to actively recruit such students.

Part of the issue as university bodies were at pains to explain is that the article refers to foundation or bridging courses which may have lower entry grades and are used to prepare people from all backgrounds for academic study. These are not new and have been important for many universities for some time but, as the Russell Group explained, have been incorrectly conflated with degree programmes in the article.

Either way, the story touched a number of raw nerves and raised questions again about entry arrangements, the impact of international students on the domestic market, the role of recruitment agents and university funding generally.

Both the Russell Group and Universities UK issued firm rebuttals and as former universities minister and part architect of the current system, David Willetts said, entry routes are never tidy. The issue as he went on to say is that universities are scrambling for cash, so need proper funding. He suggested linking fees to inflation or some other such formula. How far this will appear in party manifestos remains to be seen.

In other news this week, the Levelling Up Committee reported on the dire state of local council finances. “There is an out-of-control financial crisis in local councils across England,” said the Chair of the Committee. Demands for services such as special educational needs and adult social care has resulted in ‘rocketing costs’ according to the Committee. It called for an immediate bailout and longer-term review of local funding.

Elsewhere, MPs previewed next week’s children’s mental health week with a debate on the matter. ‘Our plan is working,’ claimed the minister, others were less sure. “The challenges facing the mental health of our young people have never been greater,” claimed the Labour member introducing the debate.

Earlier in the week, education ministers faced a range of issues including persistent pupil absentees, school buildings, early years and apprenticeships, under education questions but it was largely routine stuff.

And the government remained tight lipped as the International Monetary Fund’ issued its latest Economic Outlook downgrading growth for UK and urging it not to go for more tax cuts. The Chancellor did however admit he didn’t have much ‘headroom’ for tax cuts’ later in the week when talking about the forthcoming Budget. Most of the education and skills organisations have now submitted their wish lists to the Treasury ahead of the Budget on 6 March. The ASCL, AoC and AELP have been among those doing so in recent weeks.

In schools this week, the government published a new ‘combined framework’ for trainee and early career teachers and set out the final sets of figures and performance data on last year’s exams.

The Think tank EDSK published an interesting report on school system reform arguing that the current dual model of state and academy schools had become confusing and costly. “The language of ‘academies’ and ‘academisation’ has become politically toxic and also means little or nothing to parents.”  It called for a more collaborative and transparent system of School Boards in its place.

The education endowment foundation announced a new teacher-driven research project to evaluate the impact of ChatGPT on teacher workloads. “This is an extraordinarily exciting project – one of the first of its kind to look at how generative AI could be used to lighten their significant workload,” according to the foundation’s boss, Becky Francis.

And London councils warned of what it called “disruption and impossible choices as London experiences a continued drop in demand in school places.” A falling birthrate and swingeing housing costs are being blamed leaving parts of inner London hollowed out.

In FE, the government published the latest list of some 70+ established qualifications that could have their funding withdrawn because they overlap with T levels in subject areas such as animal care and media. Awarding organisations have until 26 March to appeal.

An immediate concern for many has been the ‘sudden’ decision to drop T levels in barbering and hairdressing. Work on developing these qualifications had been going on for some time so the snip did not go down well. The AoC called it ‘a huge shock’ and in a letter to the minister called for a meeting to settle issues over implementation and funding.

Elsewhere for FE, Ofqual and the AELP both had reports out on functional skills this week, no changes but still an area of concern for many.

And the Prince’s Trust published its latest annual survey of young people, 16 – 25-year-olds reporting that “happiness in work, education, qualifications and money were at all-time low. On the plus side, though, many (68%) appeared determined to get the right qualifications, get a good job and secure their futures. “Working has changed my life for the better, my mental health, my drive, my ambition and my hope,” as one put it.

And for HE this week away from the headlines about international students, there’ve been plenty of other talking points.

One has been the build-up to the general election where the NUS launched its manifesto wish list of five key asks starting with ‘lift every student in the UK out of poverty and give us all hope for the future.’ And where HEPI director Nick Hillman also blogged about the tortuous issue of fees and funding, its role in past elections and the context for the coming one, ahead of a series of events that HEPI will be hosting on the matter in the coming weeks.

And also of interest this week has been the report from the HE Policy Institute (HEPI) and Kortext on student attitudes to AI. In a word, just over half of students surveyed have used it to help with their studies, although over a third of them aren’t clear when the information produced is fake, most don’t support its use in assessments and think their institution could spot such usage, and most favour a set of clear ground rules for the future.

Links to most of these stories below starting with the headlines.

The top headlines of the week:

  • ‘Ofsted: MPs call for an end to single-word grades.’ (Monday).
  • ‘DfE to investigate claims of bad practice in recruitment of international students.’ (Tuesday).
  • ‘Gig-economy contracts for two in three research staff at top universities.’ (Wednesday).
  • ‘More than half of UK undergraduates say they use AI to help with essays. (Thursday).
  • ‘Government launches £6.5m-backed recruitment campaign for more childcare staff.’ (Friday).

General:

  • Vaping. The PM announced new restrictions on vaping as part of a response to recent consultation on the matter, confirming a ban on disposable vapes, restrictions on flavoured vapes often aimed at children, and confirmation of forthcoming legislation on banning the sale of tobacco to young people.
  • Horizon Europe. The government launched a new media campaign intended to run throughout the year and aimed at encouraging businesses and researchers to seize opportunities in the Horizon Europe research programme.
  • Business Council. The PM announced the launch of this year’s Business Council comprising leading business figures who will provide advice to the government during the year on productivity, job creation and the economy generally.
  • Business Partnership. The Labour Party set out its plans for a new partnership with business, picking up on a recent review of business relationships and promising more dialogue, open engagement, a long-term relationship and an early focus on tackling the UK’s Foreign Direct Investment problem.
  • Council funding. The Levelling Up Committee called for “a fundamental review of the system of local authority funding and local taxation” as it published a new report showing local councils in England facing a double whammy of increased demand for services and extensive cuts, calling as a result for an improved funding settlement to help councils survive.
  • Global economy. The IMF published its latest world economic outlook acknowledging a backcloth of continuing global uncertainties but pointing to an improving picture generally with global growth forecast to be slightly up this year at 3.1% but remaining ‘sluggish’ for the UK at 0.6% this year and 1.6% for the year after, suggesting that the government might be better to invest and support public services than try to cut taxes.
  • Labour market Outlook. The Resolution Foundation reflected on recent labour market trends which have seen the employment rate improving in some regions but economic activity due to long-term sickness increasing in other, notably low-income, regions arguing that policy needs to reflect such regional differences.
  • Green blueprint. The British Chambers of Commerce published a new blueprint to drive net-zero transition calling for a clear Green Industrial Strategy from government, a cross-sector approach to green jobs, and a new public body to oversee delivery of core climate policies.
  • Budget submission. The Recruitment and Employment Confederation submitted its wish list to the Chancellor ahead of the forthcoming Budget setting out four key proposals including delivering a new Industrial Strategy, supporting the transition to a green economy, expanding access to training, and flexing the labour market.
  • Investment Zones. The manufacturer’s organisation, MakeUK along with Barclays, called in a new report for greater awareness and government support to help Investment Zones become a reality for more regions.
  • Young people. The Prine’s Trust published its latest annual YouGov Youth survey of young people finding many 16–25-year-olds unhappy and lacking confidence about themselves and their future prospects and in many cases facing mental health issues, but equally a determination to secure their futures where possible..
  • Youth transitions. Administrative Data Research UK (ADR UK) announced a new research project to be led by NFER to develop greater understanding of what works for young people as they ‘transition’ through the education system and beyond.
  • Online abuse. The government highlighted a range of new offences including cyber flashing, revenge porn and epilepsy-trolling, that could face criminal charges as the full force of the Online Safety Act came into effect.

More specifically ...

Schools:

  • Ofsted. The Education Committee published its report into Ofsted’s work with schools reflecting many of the current concerns around the inspection system and recommending among other things developing a better alternative to single-word judgements, looking again at how to approach safeguarding, making sure lead inspectors have the relevant experience and reviewing the complaints procedure.
  • Early Career teachers. The government set out its new framework for trainee and early career teachers, designed to provide some three years or more of training and support by combining the initial teacher training core framework and the early career framework, updating it all with new content on areas such as SEND and planning for roll out from September 2025.
  • 14-16 qualifications. Qualifications Wales announced a series of new “exciting” qualifications for 14 – 16-year-olds to go with their new GCSEs, which will be available from 2027 and include a VCSE (Vocational Certificate of Secondary Education,) Skills for Life and Work, Foundation Qualifications and a Personal Project Qualification.
  • Alternative provision. Ofsted and the Care Quality Commission reported on alternative provision in England finding some areas of good practice but a system hampered by a lack of clarity on responsibilities and oversight duties and in need of a strong set of national standards around such arrangements,
  • System reform. The EDSK think tank called in a new report for a rethink on the structure of the school system, arguing that the current ‘fragmented’ system was costly and inefficient and calling for a more coherent, collaborative and transparent system managed through school boards and overseen by a new independent regulator.
  • School Exclusions. The Centre for Social Justice called for a national inclusion framework for schools and academy trusts along with better guidance, support and partnership working between agencies as it published two reports highlighting the growing issue of pupil exclusions and the challenges schools face in dealing with such cases.
  • Teachers of colour. The National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) reported on the challenges faced by many teachers of colour particularly around retention, promotion and support generally, in an evidence paper for Lewis Hamilton’s Mission 44 foundation, calling among other things for more training, mentoring and direct interventions where necessary.
  • AI project. The Education Endowment Foundation announced the launch of a new research project for secondary schools in England to examine how far ChatGPT could help teachers with lesson planning and reduce workloads.
  • Mental health. The House of Commons Library Service published a briefing on children and young people’s mental health services in England showing that 445,000 people were in contact with such services as of last November, ‘a steady increase,’ with the briefing running through the various services available and associated policy developments.
  • Special educational needs. The children’s commissioner expressed concern about the rapid rise (up 24%) in the number of appeals over Education Health and Care Plans (EHCP) for children with special educational needs, arguing that further reform was needed to ensure such children got the support required.
  • Secondary maths. The Education Endowment Foundation and XTX Markets announced a new funded partnership to explore new ways to support the teaching of maths in secondary schools in England.
  • Falling rolls.  London Councils highlighted concerns about falling school rolls in many areas of London pointing to the decline moving into secondary education over the next three years leaving Boroughs and MATs needing to work together to manage resources efficiently.
  • Free school meals. Councils and charities expressed concern about what was going to happen to free school meals in the holidays with the current funded scheme, the Household Support Fund, due to close at the end of March and the government yet to confirm its future.

FE/Skills:

  • Dear Prime Minister. The Association of Colleges (AoC) wrote to the PM calling for the government to take three steps including reimbursing VAT for colleges, levelling pay with teachers and extending tuition funding for young people, in the forthcoming Budget that would help colleges deliver the promised Advanced British Standard (ABS) and other government ambitions.
  • T levels. The government announced some changes to T level implementation plans along with a list of qualifications deemed to overlap with wave 4 T levels and thereby at risk of losing funding, giving awarding organisations until 26 March to lodge appeals.
  • T level concerns. The AoC raised concerns in an open letter to the minister about T level developments including specifically some chopping and changing over their introduction and delays in future funding information, calling for an urgent meeting to restore confidence in the programme.
  • Functional skills. Ofqual reported on its review of functional skills where recent reforms have led to concerns that the qualifications have become more difficult, particularly in maths, concluding that while there was no overall need to change things at this stage, some particular issues such as question setting in L1 and 2 maths, should be addressed.
  • More on Functional Skills. The Association of Employment and Learning Providers (AELP) raised concerns about the cost and value of functional skills in a new report, arguing that recent reforms have left the qualifications becoming more and more like GCSEs, calling for their role as work-based qualifications to be clarified and appropriately funded.
  • GCSE resits. The Education Policy Institute examined the issues around English and maths GCSE resits where numbers have been rising and where the current system of resits is ‘not working for most students,’ arguing in a new blog that the discussion around the Advanced British Standard (ABS) should be seen as an opportunity to generate a more efficient and responsive system for those students who need help to pass such vital qualifications.
  • Construction routes. NOCN and CCATF highlighted some of the challenges facing the construction and built environment sector particularly around skills, calling in a new report for a core+ skills system for the UK, a more flexible training route and a stronger recruitment strategy, to help employers struggling to recruit.
  • World Skills. WorldSkills UK announced Pearson as the official partner of Team UK which will be formally announced in May before moving on to compete in the WorldSkills ‘Olympics’ due to take place in France in September.

HE:

  • AI survey. The HE Policy Institute (HEPI) and Kortext reported on the results of a new survey looking into how students view AI tools, finding that over half (53%) have used GenAI largely to help explain concepts, that most (66%) reckoned this was OK but using it for assessment was not, and that most (63%) believe institutions should develop a clear policy on AI use.
  • Election matters. HEPI director Nick Hillman set out the context around HE fees and funding in the UK for the forthcoming general election, ahead of a planned series of HEPI hosted events on the matter.
  • Research staff. The University and College Union (UCU) called for ‘secure forms of employment’ for research staff as it published a survey report showing that some two-thirds are on fixed-term contracts, experiencing what the report called, ‘shocking gig-economy style employment practices.’ 
  • NUS wish list. The National Union of Students (NUS) published its manifesto for the forthcoming general election pointing to many of the challenges students currently face and calling for urgent investment and support in the first instance along with longer-term reform of the funding model, provision of high-quality student housing, the easing of visa sponsorship and increased mental health support.
  • OIA consultation. The Office of the Independent Adjudicator (OIA) launched consultation on some changes needed to deal with complaints following last year’s Freedom of Speech Act along with a refresh of some of the other Rules to contend with changing contexts.

Tweets and posts of note:

  • “There’s a lot of behaviour advice out there from behaviour consultants that appears to be basically ‘be as amazing as I am.’ Problem is, there are 500,000 teachers in the UK alone. A system that requires them all to be inspirational performers isn’t remotely serious or attainable. That’s why we need systems, taught routines, consequences, predictable environments” – @tombennett71.
  • “Instead, staff would be given the option to bid to buy out more time to pursue research projects.” This is rather like suggesting that bakers bid for yeast and flour to pursue bready projects” - @CAPittard.
  • “Welcome to the age of the ‘dadcast’: ubiquitous, lucrative – and a bit boring” - @mediaguardian.

A selection of quotes that merit attention:

  • “I do have the odd nut” – the PM on coping with his regular 36 hour fasting regime rather than anything else.
  • “We are in the midst of a worrying rise in young people vaping. I want to stop youth vaping in its tracks - and a ban on disposable vapes is central to that” – the Health Minister on the new restrictions for young people on vaping.
  • “There never has been a tidy world therefore in which the only route into university is by achieving set A level grades at age 18” – David Willetts offers a helpful explainer on the current expose about the use of lower entry bridging programmes for international students.
  • “I know what it takes to deliver complex projects. I have delivered many over three decades working in industry all around the world” – the Education Secretary responds to criticisms from MPs about the rollout of the childcare scheme.
  • “‘Draconian, unnecessary and unworkable’ – the NAHT responds to the government’s consultation on minimum service levels for schools.
  • “All I can say is that one word was catastrophic for my sister," – Ruth Perry’s sister on the dangers of single-word Ofsted grades.

Important numbers

Not-to-be-missed numbers of the week:

  • 0.4%. The markdown in global growth in the UK for 2025, down to 1.6%, according to the IMF in its latest global economic outlook.
  • £4bn. The amount of extra funding needed to save English councils from going bankrupt, according to the Levelling Up Committee.
  • 65%. The number of undergraduates who reckon their institution could spot work produced by AI, according to a report from HEPI/Kortext.
  • 9%. The number of 11 – 15-year-olds now using vapes, according to figures quoted by the government.
  • 48%. The number of young people who worry that they don’t have the right skills or qualifications to get a job in the future, according to the Prince’s Trust latest Youth Index.
  • 45.3%. The percentage of KS4 pupils gaining grades 5 or above in English and maths GCSE last year, according to final published figures from the government.
  • 4.3%. The forecast drop in demand for Year 7 school places across London over the next few years, as falling rolls start to bite according to a London Councils report.
  • £118. The amount of money saved on average by those who gave up alcohol for Dry January, according to Alcohol Change UK.

Everything else you need to know ...

What to look out for next week:

  • National Apprenticeship Week (Monday 5 February – Sunday 11 February).
  • Children’s Mental Health Week (Monday 5 February – Sunday 11 February).
  • OECD launch Economic Outlook, Interim Report (Monday 5 February).
  • Education Committee evidence session on the impact of industrial action on university students (Tuesday 6 February).
  • Westminster Hall debate on mindfulness in schools (Wednesday 7 February).

Other stories

  • Population figures. In the Schools section of this briefing is a link to a London Council’s paper raising concerns about the impact of falling school rolls in London over the next few years. It comes as the ONS published some interesting data this week on future population growth in the UK. In a word, “over the 15 years between mid-2021 and mid-2036, the UK population is projected to grow by 6.6 million people (9.9%) from an estimated 67.0 million to 73.7 million.” Of that 6.6% growth, a small proportion (8.2%) is predicted to come from more births than deaths while the vast majority (91.8%) will come from projected net migration. It’s here, as many point out where the drivers for the economy will come but it also highlights the importance of planning for schools and other public services in the future. Especially as the other important statistic in the ONS data is that the size of the population aged 85 years and over is projected to increase over the next 15 years from 1.6 million (2.5% of the total population) to 2.6 million (3.5%).A link to the ONS paper is here.

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Steve Besley

Disclaimer: Education Eye is intended to help colleagues keep up to date with national developments in the education sector. Information is correct at the time of writing and is offered in good faith. No liability is accepted by Steve Besley or EdCentral for decisions made on the basis of any information provided.

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