Steve Besley's Education Eye: week ending 12 April 2024

Welcome to Education Eye, a regular update detailing the policies and stories happening in UK education, compiled by Steve Besley.

What's happened this week?

Important stories across the board:

Some emerging policy lines for education this week. Three in particular.

First shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves set out how Labour might eke out further funding to provide for breakfast clubs in schools, NHS appointments and other Party commitments.

She pointed to a tax clampdown on so-called ‘tax dodgers’ along with more stringent regulations for wealthy non-doms, tax efficiencies and a new tax panel. As she acknowledged, the economic inheritance for the next government remains ‘dire.’ A bill of over £50bn for stuff that needs doing, for a start. Efficiencies, reform and productivity remain the key buzzwords for the future.

Second, and following this week’s Institute for Studies (IfS) report on Sure Start, Labour grandees Gordon Brown, David Blunkett and Alan Johnson called for a future Labour government to commit to introducing a new Sure Start style programme. ‘It’s crucial to the wellbeing of so many young people in the years to come,’ as David Blunkett explained.

The point was reinforced in a report from the Institute for Fiscal studies this week.

As they outlined, “for every £1 the government spent on Sure Start, children who attended benefited by £1.09 in terms of their lifetime earnings, solely because of better school outcomes.”

Not only that, much of the costs were offset by savings on special needs and other forms of support. Children and families who lived near a Sure Start centre, particularly those from low-income areas and those with special needs experienced the most positive effects. Many achieved better grades at GCSE. No wonder the major political parties are talking up early years provision ahead of their manifestos.

As to what a future form of Sure Start might look like, Public First’s Ed Dorrell outlined a potential model. “It would be grander in scale than Sure Start, more integrated and, in the long term, probably better value for money.” Many agreed.

And third, Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey took up the case of special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) calling for extra investment and a national champion to help overcome what he called ‘a postcode lottery of provision.’ The NAHT called the idea ‘interesting.’

In other general news this week, the government published the latest report on cyber security breaches over the past year. It came with an interesting annexe spelling out some of the impact on education.

HE institutions seem to have been most affected with the report indicating that 43% of such institutions reported experiencing a breach or an attack at least weekly last year.

In all, 97% of HE institutions, 86% of colleges, 71% of secondary schools and 41% of primary schools reported identifying some breaches or attacks over the year. Phishing, impersonation and viruses seem to have been the main causes with respondents suggesting that the difficult economic climate was driving opportunists to take advantage.

On the positive side, education institutions have done a lot recently to strengthen their cyber security. The report noted that “all educational institutions have a level of preparedness and planning for cybersecurity that is notably more advanced to that of the average business.”

On to some sector specific news for this week.

For schools, Ofsted announced that former Chief Inspector Dame Christine Gilbert. would lead the promised independent review looking into its handling of the Ruth Perry tragedy.

Some concern was expressed about a former HMCI leading the review but Dame Christine was clear about her remit. “I will scrutinise the approach taken and advise on future actions and revisions needed to improve Ofsted’s policies and processes for dealing with any tragic incident.” Her report is due later this year.

And the Education Policy Institute reported on the impact of likely falling rolls for state schools in England. “Our analysis shows that in some local authorities, these falls could be up to almost one fifth of pupils (18 per cent).” London and the North East are set to experience the biggest falls, it seems.

The problem is that under the current funding regime this could mean funding falling as well, potentially by £1bn by 2029/30. But, but, but, as many have pointed out, falling rolls doesn’t simply equate to lower costs. You’ve still got all the daily running costs. As the NAHT said “any further cuts to funding would be a catastrophe for our children.” Use it as an opportunity to improve per-pupil funding as ASCL said.

In FE, the Association of Colleges (AoC) called for a more ‘effective, efficient and fair’ post-16 education system.

Building on its vision for a more coherent tertiary system outlined last year, the AoC highlighted what it saw as the disjointed and inefficient nature of the current system with its “siloed and fragmented education policies” before putting forward a number of evidence-based recommendations for improving things.

Top of the list was the creation of a national overseeing body to set direction, greater clarity on roles, a responsive qualification system incorporating a role for colleges, and demand-led adult funding.

In HE this week, the HE Policy Institute (HEPI) published an important collection of essays on that $64,000 question ‘what to do about tuition fees.’

Options ranged from a stepped repayment system (James Purnell) to linking fees to inflation and quality metrics (Jo Johnson,) to a mix of stepped repayments, maintenance loans and grants and eventual fee abolition (NUS.)

Most contributors referenced a graduate tax which emerged as the most popular option. As someone who was there at the time that the present fee system was introduced, observed, “we should fund them (students) first and then expect them to pay back if and when they can afford to. This is a sensible midpoint between a full market model and getting back into public spending and taxation. It is the model we have had for over 20 years now and I see no better alternative.” That’s David Willetts by the way.

Elsewhere, the Speakers for Schools organisation reported that many state school applicants don’t get a chance to do work experience, putting them at a disadvantage with more ‘privileged’ students when applying to top universities. They called for a better funded system able to ensure access to work experience for all.

And talking of work, Bloomberg UK reported on Adzuna’s latest market report pointing to a sizeable fall in graduate job vacancies along with flat wage growth. As it noted, with the Resolution Foundation reporting at the same time an increase in housing rents, it’s a tough time for many young people at the moment.

Links to most of these stories below starting with the headlines.

The top headlines of the week:

‘Lib Dems call for end to special needs postcode lottery.’ (Monday).
‘Children living near Sure Start centres did better at GCSEs, study suggest.’ (Tuesday).
‘New report outlines double disadvantage barring fair access to top universities.’ (Wednesday).
‘English schools could lose £1bn by 2030 as pupil numbers fall.’ (Thursday).
‘Most teachers running Key Stage 1 SATs this year.’ (Friday).

General:

Cyber security. The government published details from its latest cyber security breaches survey showing colleges and HE institutions, along with some schools, all reporting significant numbers of breaches or attacks over the past year with phishing and impersonation attacks being the most prevalent but with most educational institutions now having set cyber security policies in place.
Cost of living. The Financial Conduct Authority published its latest survey report on the impact of the cost of living on UK adults, with evidence collated over the past winter showing that while things have improved for some they are still worse historically for many, with some demographics including carers, renters, those unable to work and those living in deprived areas noticeably struggling.
Sure Start. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IfS) reported on the impact of Sure Start centres which ran for the last decade of the previous Labour government, finding positive benefits especially for children from low-income families and non-white backgrounds, in some cases increasing with age, suggesting that investment in early years can generate positive educational and welfare benefits.
AI Trust and Truth. Fact checkers Full Fact highlighted how generative AI is making it harder to tackle misinformation and disinformation, a particular challenge in an election year, calling among other things for the next government to strengthen the Online Safety Act and regulatory powers of Ofcom and for Parties to commit to responsible use of AI during elections.
Economic Quarterly. The British Chambers of Commerce published its latest Quarterly Economic survey report showing little improvement overall in business conditions with most firms reporting no upsurge in investment levels, sales or cashflow.
Jobs report. KPMG and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation published their latest report on Jobs in the UK pointing to continuing falls in recruitment activity over the past month with the economy described as in ‘a holding position’ albeit with some regional variations.

More specifically ...

Schools:

Falling rolls. The Education Policy Institute examined the impact of projected falling rolls in state schools in England in a new report, suggesting that this could have a knock-on effect on school funding which could fall by £1bn by 2029/30.
Regulatory burden. Ofqual published its latest annual report on managing regulatory burdens, outlining related activity over the past year such as removing regulatory frameworks introduced under Covid and removing duplicate and burdensome activity in the exam system, as well as planned improvements this year including in-data cataloguing and awarding body recognition.
Special needs. Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey highlighted significant regional variations in support for children with special needs and disabilities, promising that a Lib Dem manifesto would include additional funds and a dedicated special needs champion to help ensure uniform provision.
Ruth Perry review. Ofsted announced that former Chief Inspector Dame Christine Gilbert would lead the independent review into Ofsted’s handling of the Ruth Perry tragedy, with the Review due to begin next month and complete later this year.
Offer Day. The government reminded families of the procedure for Primary School Offer Day next Tuesday, when families find out which school has offered their child a place from September and what they need to do if they wish to appeal.

FE/Skills:

System reform. The Association of Colleges (AoC) reiterated its call for a more efficient, fair and effective tertiary system, calling in a new report for the creation of a new national body to set overall strategy, greater clarity on the role and purpose of different providers, and a more responsive qualification system with a role for colleges.
Levy impact. The Consultancy, London Economics, highlighted its research into the apprenticeship levy which was used to inform the AoC reform paper and which showed a marked decline in the number of apprenticeship starts over the past decade with young people and those on lower-level programmes affected the most.
Apprenticeship accountability. The government updated its apprenticeship training provider accountability framework, keeping the indicators but making some changes to the thresholds including relacing the contentious 250 apprentice threshold with a percentage of total figure.

HE:

Tuition fees. The HE Policy Institute (HEPI) published an important collection of essays on the challenges and options for reforming the undergraduate tuition fee system, with a graduate levy emerging as the most popular option.
Quality Code. The QAA launched consultation on an updated Quality Code which following recent feedback and development now proposes 12 Principles, grouped in three areas with a set of Key Practices, Advice and Guidance in each case.
International students. The UK Council for International Student Affairs (UKCISA) published a briefing paper setting out five principles governments could adopt to help make things more positive for international students, including building a stronger evidence base of migration data, adopting more welcoming language and supporting employability opportunities.
Applying to uni. The Speakers for Schools organisation called for prestigious universities to be more transparent about the value they attach to the extra-curricular activities of applicants as it published new research showing that many applicants from poorer backgrounds don’t enjoy the same sort of access to such activities as those from wealthier backgrounds.
Recurrent funding. The Office for Students (OfS) announced arrangements for mid-year recurrent funding allocations for 2023/24, largely aimed at encouraging L4/5 provision with 275 providers set to benefit.
Subject Benchmarks. The QAA published updated Subject Benchmark Statements for 13 new subject areas ranging from agriculture to veterinary nursing.
Graduate jobs. Bloomberg UK reported on the latest research on the graduate jobs market from Adzuna indicating that it was ‘drying up at double the pace of the rest of the labour market,’ suggesting that continuing economic uncertainty was to blame for employers holding off on hiring.

Tweets and posts of note:

“The number of UK universities announcing redundancies has now reached 48, and will continue climbing” - @gsoh31.
“My teacher neighbor likes to deal with students hanging out in the hallway by asking them "Are you ok?" Today we walked past a student sitting on the floor and he responded in an excited tone "Are you kidding me? I'm sitting on the floor and not in class, this is awesome" - @sage_stage.
“Our teacher doesn’t offer much explanation; she assigns problems for us to solve in groups & every 3rd lesson she checks in to see if we have any questions” Evidence aside, common sense should tell you this is a bad (and lazy) way to teach kids” - @rastokke.
“The next caller Louise, is in the Rhondda Valley and you're through to the Prime Minister, go ahead Louise." "Good morning Prime Minister." "Hi Rhonda..." - @AdamBienkov.
“Words that everyone in politics uses incorrectly. 1. “Fulsome” - if you say someone has given a “fulsome apology”, you are suggesting it was so over the top as to be insincere. 2. It’s not a podium, it’s a lectern, unless the Prime Minister has won an Olympic medal” - @IsabelHardman.

A selection of quotes that merit attention:

“That process is now complete and the funding a future Labour government will raise from taking on the tax dodgers will fund more appointments in NHS hospitals, new scanners, extra dentist appointments and free breakfast clubs for all primary school pupils” – shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves explains where the money is to come from.
“No child, or their family, should have to wait so long or fight so hard to have their needs met" – the Lib Dems pledge a new deal for special needs.
“The majority of education institutions have taken action in the last 12 months to help identify cyber security risks” – the government’s latest cyber security report finds education institutions increasingly prepared.
“Today, too many Americans, especially young people, are saddled with unsustainable debts in exchange for a college degree” – President Biden announces plans to cancel student loans for borrowers with high levels of debt interest.
“Universities in the Netherlands have agreed to reduce the number of undergraduate programmes taught entirely in English, amid continuing pressure to reduce international student numbers” – the Times Higher reports on the latest ‘battle’ around international students.
“We desperately need an effective, efficient and fair tertiary system, and the recommendations we set out would achieve that by putting colleges at the heart of the reform” – the AoC outlines reforms to the tertiary system with colleges at the heart.
“It goes: Question, change of shot, teams ponder, answer given... pay-off with laughter” – Amol Rajan on the choreography of questions on University Challenge.
“Among all children, those who lived near a Sure Start centre performed 0.8 grades better at GCSE level than those who lived further away” – the IfS report highlights some of the benefits of the Sure Start programme.
“Stairwells fill with people, most of them also weighed down by coats, laptops and reusable coffee flasks. They spiral down below you on the way out and form long queues by the lifts on the way back” – the columnist in The Economist takes a tongue in check look at the rules of office fire drills.

Important numbers

Not-to-be-missed numbers of the week:

£10.5bn. The cost per cohort of scrapping undergraduate tuition fees, according to a new briefing paper from the HEPI.
90%. The number of HE institutions with a designated senior person with responsibility for cyber security, 85% in colleges and 71% in schools, according to the government’s latest cyber security report.
33%. The drop in apprenticeship starts between 2014/5 and 2022/3, according to research from London Economics.
436,000. The projected drop in pupil numbers in state schools in England between 2022/3 and 2028/9, according to the Education Policy Institute.
23.4%. The obesity prevalence for children in Year 6, up on pre-pandemic levels according to data from the National Child Measurement Programme.
7.4m. The number of people struggling to pay bills and credit repayments, down from 10.9m last year but up on the 5.8m for 2020, according to the Financial Conduct Authority’s latest cost of living survey.

Everything else you need to know ...

What to look out for next week:

MPs return (Monday 15 April).
Westminster Hall debate on ‘Digital skills and careers’ (Tuesday 16 April).
Primary school offer day (Tuesday 16 April).
APPG on The Future of Work seminar on ‘What can be done to solve the UK’s productivity puzzle’ (Wednesday 17 April).
OECD webinar on ‘AI and cheating education: How can we safeguard the integrity of exams?’ (Wednesday 17 April).

Steve Besley

Disclaimer: Education Eye is intended to help colleagues keep up to date with national developments in the education sector. Information is correct at the time of writing and is offered in good faith. No liability is accepted by Steve Besley or EdCentral for decisions made on the basis of any information provided.

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