Steve Besley's Education Eye: week ending 21 June 2024

Welcome to Education Eye, a regular update detailing the policies and stories happening in UK education, compiled by Steve Besley.

What's happened this week?

Important stories across the board:

A quieter week for education on the election front following last week’s rash of manifestos.

There’ve been some laden headlines about the effects of the VAT charge on private school fees with the Daily Mail concerned about the effects of ‘an unprecedented rush to the best secondaries’ and launching an interactive tool to help parents find places, and the FT reckoning there’s space for all.

It prompted the Independent Schools Council to call for greater clarity on the Labour proposals so that they could plan for the future.

There’s also been more concern about university financing and the issue of tuition fees with King’s College reporting this week that people would be hugely concerned if a university had to close and would largely (61%) blame the government if the worst happened.

Funding, whether of school, college or university, inevitably remains a huge concern for education as we head into the final week or so of the campaign.

The problem as the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IfS) highlighted this week, is that no party has come clean on it all.

As the ASCL ruefully explained “there is no bigger question mark than on school and college funding, and the lack of commitment to improving this by Labour and the Conservatives is very disappointing.”

Funding of course is not the only challenge likely to face an incoming government. There are plenty of others as the IfS went on to explain.

Yet as the Education Policy Institute concluded in their useful analysis of the manifestos this week “the manifesto commitments do not go far enough towards addressing the key challenges facing the education system.” It went on to list a few.

It’s a growing list and bodies such as the AoC are busily preparing their priorities to send in to incoming ministers to help them hit the ground running on July 5^th.

Away from the election and in wider news this week, UNESCO published an important report highlighting the cost, both social and economic, of missing out on education.

The report reckoned that in all, some 250m children and young people worldwide are still out of school, calculating the cost to the global economy as “$10,000 billion a year by 2030, equivalent to more than the annual GDPs of France and Japan combined.” It labelled it ’the price of inaction’ and urged countries to break the “vicious circle” of school drop-outs as soon as possible.

Back home, the IfS published an assessment of the Conservative’s levelling up policy finding that education had gone back rather than forward when pitted against the two metrics proposed. “Between 2018–19 and 2022–23 (the latest year for which data are available), the total number of further education (FE) and skills course completions declined by 14%, which is equivalent to 145,000 fewer learners.”

Elsewhere, the IPPR think tank reported that the UK was at the bottom of the heap of G7 economies when it came to investment. It called on a future government to make new forms of investment a priority for areas such as education and health let alone green industries. “If the economy is an engine, then investment is its fuel.”

And the Institute for the Future of Work published the latest in its major review into the future of work and wellbeing pointing to what it called “a complex relationship between technology exposure and job quality.” Basically it seemed, people weren’t sure how far technology would make their jobs easier, let alone retain their jobs.

On to schools, where the assessment by the IfS of where school funding stood following the release of the various party manifestos, has been a notable talking point.

The big question for schools was ‘what was likely to happen to core funding which totals just over £60bn for 2024/25.’ The Conservatives would protect it, the Lib Dems would increase it, Labour had remained non-committal. The IfS modelled some scenarios but it was hard to be too precise when so much had been left in the dark.

A similar point was made by the Education Policy Institute (EPI) in its detailed analysis this week of the party manifestos. “There is a striking lack of clear commitments to school and college funding.” In summary, the EPI reckoned some of the commitments lacked focus and they certainly didn’t cover some of the major crunch issues such as SEND and teacher recruitment and retention. Could do better, was their verdict.

In other schools news, the NEU published the results of its poll among teachers about Ofsted with foreseeable results. ‘Ofsted is damaging teacher and school leaders’ mental health, undermining quality learning and jeopardising rates of inclusion of children.” The general consensus was a hope that the next government would reform or replace it.

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation reported that ‘primary schools and primary and community healthcare providers were struggling under the weight of hardship’ as it published a new survey report. “This is a challenge,” it concluded “that needs political attention and commitment.”

And School Dash and Teacher Tapp published their latest Gatsby funded report into teacher recruitment and retention. In their view, “the challenges of school staffing have not gone away, they are merely changing shape,” with much depending on the area and the subject and activity becoming ‘a bit less seasonal.’

In FE, the IfS highlighted concerns here too about future levels of funding. “In further education, neither the Conservatives nor Labour have provided information on future funding levels for colleges and sixth forms.”

And the Association of Apprentices reported that the top challenges apprentices face are work-life balance, time management and completing off-the-job training, as they published the results of their pre-election survey of apprentices. More time to study and more financial support were among their ‘Big Asks.’

In HE, and on the election front, the Million Plus group launched its teacher education manifesto, HEPI and Kaplan highlighted the value of international students to many parliamentary constituencies around the country, and as indicated earlier, King’s College made a strong case for the importance of universities to the public realm. We may not feature as a top priority in a general election but “UK universities rank behind only the NHS, the country’s armed forces and the Royal Family in a league table of institutions considered to be among the best in the world by the public” was their eye-catching pitch.

In other HE news, the Student Loans Company published the latest data on the student loan balance now standing at £236.2bn, London Higher reflected on some of the issues around the cost-of-living for London students while Universities UK wondered where we start with building a tertiary system.

So a week dominated by reflections and analyses of the various party manifestos with, for education at least, huge uncertainty across the board about future levels of funding and a growing to do list for an incoming government. Cut short the honeymoon.

Links to most of these stories below starting with the week’s headlines.

The top headlines of the week:

‘State schools have enough space for exodus of private school pupils’ (Monday).
‘Fears for children as special educational needs budgets tighten’ (Tuesday).
‘DfE ‘robs’ schools of £1.9bn for crumbling buildings, say unions’ (Wednesday).
‘University sector calls on Labour to raise tuition fees to stabilise the ship’ (Thursday).
‘LSIPs: Colleges call for long-term funding and shared accountability’ (Friday).

General:

Levelling up. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IfS) reported on the lack of progress in the key policy area of levelling up, acknowledging that it had been a difficult time with the pandemic and war but that progress generally had been slow and in some cases, such as average life satisfaction and completion rates for adult skills courses, things had actually got worse.
Reform manifesto. Reform published its manifesto with a page of proposals for education that included tax relief on school fees, auditing curriculum aspects to ensure they’re ‘patriotic’, restricting undergraduate numbers, scrapping interest on student loans and over time opting for 2-year undergraduate courses.
Lack of investment. The IPPR think tank called on the next government to tackle low levels of public and private investment in areas like health, education and renewable energy as it published a new report showing the UK with the lowest rates of investment of any G7 economy.
Technology and job quality. The Institute for the Future of Work reported on the impact of technology on work and wellbeing as part of its series on the Future of Work, finding that while opportunities for improving work through technology were recognised, people were still unsure about the benefits and often worried about losing their jobs.
Children’s health. The Food Foundation called on the next government to tackle what it called ‘the steady decline in children’s health’ as it published a new report showing massive increases in Type 2 diabetes and obesity among young people and growing concerns about greater long term health risks to children.
Missing out on education. UNESCO highlighted the global cost of children and young people missing out on education in a major new report calling on governments ‘to allocate at least 4% – 6% of their GDP to education’ to ensure children get at least 12 years of free, inclusive, high-quality education.

More specifically ...

Schools:

School funding. The IfS reflected on what the various party manifestos had had to say about school funding, pointing to the range of challenges that an incoming government would have to face and concluding that key questions remained around the future level of core funding and a risk of cuts, with a lack of detail making future projections difficult to determine.
Manifesto analysis. The Education Policy Institute published a comprehensive assessment of the various manifesto commitments on education from early years through to higher education, concluding that while commitments addressed some of the challenges facing education they didn’t go far enough, particularly on issues like SEND and disadvantage, with uncertainty over future funding an obvious concern all round.
Teacher recruitment. School Dash and Teacher Tapp published their latest Gatsby commissioned report into teacher recruitment and retention pointing to some return to normality around recruitment although with much depending on region, subject and school type and with continuing concerns about the numbers of trained staff at secondary level.
VAT on school fees. The FT looked into claims that the imposition of VAT on private school fees would lead to an exodus of pupils, concluding that most English boroughs would be able to manage although acknowledging it might be harder in some areas than others.
Capital spend. The NEU reported on new evidence from the School Cuts group that the DfE had underspent on its capital budget by just under £2bn over the past few years which could have been passed on for urgent school repairs
Creative thinking. The OECD reported on the performance of countries that participated in the creative thinking skills assessments of the 2022 PISA series in which the UK did not participate but which saw Singapore followed by Korea, Canada and Australia top the rankings of those countries that did.
Ofsted poll. The NEU reported on a poll among teachers in England about Ofsted, finding nearly three-quarters of respondents saying the pressure and extra work involved made them consider leaving, with 99% of those polled hoping that the next government would reform or replace it.
Primary hardship. The Joseph Rowntree Foundation called for ‘urgent action’ as it published a new report highlighting some of the challenges around the delivery of services in primary schools and primary healthcare suggesting many were struggling under ‘the weight of hardship.’

FE/Skills:

FE funding. The IfS set out a summary of post-16 funding following the release of the various party manifestos, concluding that a future government would need to find an additional £400m by 2028 to maintain current levels for 16–18-year-olds suggesting various scenarios for the future but arguing that a lack of detail in manifestos made projections difficult.
LSIPs. The AoC reported some early wins but equally some early frustrations as it published a report on Local Skills Improvement Plans (LSIPs) one year on from their national roll-out, calling for more effective partnerships, sustained funding and clear accountability for the future.
What do we want? The Association of Apprentices provided feedback from its Big Ask pre-election survey of apprentices with respondents calling among other things for more study time, increased financial support and better mentorship and guidance.
Skills report. The OU and BCC reported that over 60% of UK businesses reported skills shortages as they published their latest Business Barometer with AI skills and green technologies topping the list of greatest skills weaknesses.
Manufacturing outlook. The Manufacturers’ Organisation, Make UK, painted a more positive picture for the sector as it published its Q2 report, pointing to a rise in business confidence and ‘a boost in growth prospects’ over recent months as manufacturers look to an incoming government to focus on industrial strategy and skills in the months ahead.

HE:

Universities and the election. King’s College published new research showing that while universities are held in high esteem with many considered world-leading, they don’t feature highly as a priority in elections largely because the financial pressures they face are not well appreciated.
International students. The HE Policy Institute (HEPI) and Kaplan highlighted the value of international students to parliamentary constituencies around the country using evidence produced by London Economics to show that for the top 20 such constituencies the combined benefits totalled over £8bn.
Manifesto for teacher education. The Million Plus group published a manifesto for teacher education, urging an incoming government to make it a priority and calling among other things for a Fee Loan Forgiveness scheme for teaching, a comprehensive system of placements, and the creation of a taskforce to encourage more young people to train.
Student loans. The Student Loans Company published details of the latest total loan balance which has risen to £236.2bn, with nearly 75% liable for repayment and nearly 40% making a repayment last year.
Graduate data. The government published the latest (2021/22) data on graduate earnings and employment showing for instance that for first degree graduates, median earnings five years after graduation reached £29,900 although more like £25,800 once adjusted for inflation.
Tertiary thoughts. Universities UK published reflections from two leading figures on what might constitute a functioning tertiary system, looking at definitions based on need and on level as debate on models gathers pace.
Cost-of-living. The HE body in London, London Higher, examined the impact of the cost-of-living on HE in London, finding through focus group evidence that while it wasn’t necessarily tuning students away it was restricting choice and changing the relationship with students, calling among other things for better monitoring, guidance and support for students.
Civic universities. The Civic University Network called for greater focus, incentives and recognition for universities that ‘embed the civic experience’ into their range of activities, using case study and workshop evidence to highlight the value to students and the community of a civic approach.

Tweets and posts of note:

“I find it baffling how some people support VAT on school fees without recognising the obvious consequences of adding 10-15% onto these schools' cost base: the most rational response to VAT on fees is to cut discretionary spending. Like bursaries and outreach activities” -@Tom_Richmond.
“If politicians think the opinion polls make for grim reading, it’s nothing compared to parent WhatsApp groups sometimes -@secretHT1.
“Academics despair as ChatGPT-written essays swamp marking season ‘It’s not a machine for cheating; it’s a machine for producing crap,’ says one professor infuriated by rise of bland scripts” –‘ @Phil_Baty.
“Stop talking about ‘training’. Teachers, leaders, coaches and students are not dogs. They are not trying to learn how to perform on a trapeze. They are people with complex motivations, diverse personalities, life skills, unique curiosities & endless potential. Enable education -@DrRLofthouse.
“Big school trip tomorrow which means I'll make enough food for nine people and eat it all on the coach journey before 10am” -@LeeBraganza.
“I once started a Prize Giving speech with the old line "How do you know when a teenager is lying? Their lips are moving"...it was NOT well received in the room lol” -@nipoole1.
“I am very un-tech but my house is infested with HDMI cables” -@drjcurran.

A selection of quotes that merit attention:

“UK GDP appears to have grown more strongly than expected during the first half of this year. Business surveys, however, remain consistent with a slower pace of underlying growth, of around ¼% per quarter” – the Bank of England’s latest monetary policy summary.
“UK has been bottom of the G7 league for investment in 24 out of last 30 years” – the think tank IPPR raises the issue of low investment in the UK economy.
“Overall, progress towards levelling up has been glacial – and, on many metrics, the UK as a whole has gone into reverse” – the IfS reports on how levelling up is going.
“The worry is that there is an 18-month review process that delivers no substantial change for two or three years” – Universities UK chief Vivienne Stern urges an incoming government to get to grips urgently with university funding.
“We estimate that FE colleges will need around £600 million of extra funding per year to provide places for those who are currently in state secondaries and who’ll be turning 16 under the new government” – the AoC states its case for much needed investment.
“In schools, the commitments made by the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats would be consistent with cuts in total funding as pupil numbers fall, whilst Labour have left schools even more in the dark about how their budgets might evolve over the next parliament” – the IfS reflects on what the manifestos had to say about school funding.
“So in certain ways things have partially returned to normal. But in others they remain disrupted, with some of the new burdens falling disproportionately on disadvantaged schools” – School Dash sums up the latest picture on teacher recruitment.
“Most areas would be able to absorb any pupils moving any pupils moving to the state sector if VAT is added to school fees, particularly given we expect such numbers to be small in practice” – the FT examines whether extending VAT on private school fees would lead to a surge in pupils moving into the state sector.
“Participating in school activities such as art, drama, creative writing or programming classes regularly (once a week) is associated with better performance in creative thinking than doing so infrequently or every day” – the OECD reports on the 2022 PISA assessment of creative thinking skills.
“Children in England are now shorter and more likely to have obesity and type 2 diabetes, with long term health prospects for our children at risk” – the Food Foundation reports on the growing risks to children’s health.

Important numbers

Not-to-be-missed numbers of the week:

2%. The UK CPI inflation figure for the year to May 2024, down from 2.3% previously with food the main factor but with core inflation at 4.2% according to latest ONS figures.
€199.7bn. The proposed annual budget for the EU next year incorporating €12.7bn for research under Horizon Europe, according to the EU.
10,000bn dollars a year. The global cost of school drop-out and lack of education, according to a new report from UNESCO.
£1.3m. The amount of money paid out in severance payments to vice-chancellors and principals last year, according to figures from HESA quoted in the Times Higher.
19%. The number of people in a survey who think university education should be wholly state funded although 68% think the government should pay at least half, according to a survey from King’s College.
72%. The number of teachers who have considered leaving the profession because of the pressure/extra work involved in an Ofsted inspection, according to a survey from the NEU.

Everything else you need to know ...

What to look out for next week:

IfS event on ‘analysis of the main party manifestos’ (Monday 24 June).
Education Policy Institute event on ‘Education Priorities in the Election’ (Tuesday 25 June).

Steve Besley

Disclaimer: Education Eye is intended to help colleagues keep up to date with national developments in the education sector. Information is correct at the time of writing and is offered in good faith. No liability is accepted by Steve Besley or EdCentral for decisions made on the basis of any information provided.

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