Steve Besley's Education Eye: week ending 16 August 2024

Education Eye will appear briefly over the summer break as news dictates. 

A big exam results week of course.

A levels, T levels, BTECs and others this week, GCSEs next week.

“If you don’t get your predicted grades, don’t worry - it doesn’t mean that your education journey stops here,” the government’s Education Hub headlined this week. Correct, but it can be a stressful time for many.

In terms of the overall picture, there have been many positives this year.

Grading has returned to pre-pandemic levels where according to Ofqual “results are similar to summer 2023.” The percentage of top grades awarded in England has risen slightly, record numbers of disadvantaged UK 18-year-olds have gained a place in higher education and large numbers of technical and vocational awards have been made.

Lots more reflection and analysis will follow in the coming days but as the NAHT put it in its summary comments “everyone should be very proud of their achievements.”

If that’s the big picture, what are the key messages from this year’s set of figures? Here’s four.

First, attainment gaps remain a major concern.

The gap between the highest and lowest performing parts of the country was nearly 10% this year and as the Sutton Trust indicated, “the gap in top grades has also continued to widen since 2019 between those at independent and state schools.” It’s clearly something that Sir Kevan Collins, as the standards adviser, will be focusing on.

Pressed on the matter in her interview round, the education secretary pointed to the importance of ‘excellent’ teachers and the government’s pledge to recruit 6,500 more, along with the launch of the major curriculum review. Yet as she acknowledged, it’s part of a wider societal issue as well which is why this week’s kickstart for the Child Poverty Group is so important.

Expect to see lots of reports and reviews in this area in the coming weeks.

Second, the issue of curriculum breadth, where a narrowing of subject choice could end up limiting future options for young people let alone denying society the skilled workforce it needs.

It was an issue raised in two reports this week. One from ASCL pointing to ‘a collapse in creative arts and technology subjects’ following the introduction of the EBacc and the other from the British Academy showing that fewer students were studying the humanities following the decoupling of the AS from the A level.

Initial uptake figures this year show that the dial has hardly moved. A welcome uptick for English Lit and French but no great rallying around creative arts and design and tech.

The government has made a big pitch for a broader school curriculum. It’s one of the challenges facing the curriculum review and no doubt featured in discussions with the Chair of that review, Becky Francis, who was in meeting the education secretary this week. She may have needed longer arms to carry out the growing list of expectations.

Third university entry, a big worry this year with many institutions facing growing concerns about their finances and looking for strong recruitment to help out. Earlier in the week, David Maguire, Vice Chancellor at the University of East Anglia, told The Independent that “an awful lot of institutions are placing extremely large bets on this recruitment round.”

According to UCAS, 82% of all students holding an offer successfully got their first-choice place, up 3% on last year, with ‘a record number of disadvantaged 18-year-olds also securing a place.’ International student numbers have broadly held up although not those from China.

Much though may depend on Clearing which runs through to the end of October. UCAS reckon there are just under 30,000 places available through this route ‘across a broad range of subjects’ including some previously high demand subjects. 

To quote David Maguire again, “I think the tipping point will follow clearing – it’s usually 1 October before the dust has settled and people know how many students they are going to get.” With many of the most-selective universities ‘hoovering up’ places as the Times Higher put it, it will be an anxious wait for a range of other institutions and particular departments. The debate about university finances looks likely to continue with many looking to the government to offer something more than regulator probity in the long run.

Fourth, do the results change anything about the current L3 reforms where there are deep concerns about the long-term positioning of other applied qualifications such as BTECs and, as The Guardian pointed out this week, to the roll-out of T levels?

To take a familiar quote, ‘nothing has changed.’

6,543 students gained T level awards this summer, up from 3,559 last year and the education secretary committed to them in her interview round on the day. Equally huge numbers of students gained awards in a range of technical and vocational qualifications like BTECs this week with Business Admin, Social Sciences, and Health and Public Services the subject areas with the most certificates.

As things stand, the current ‘pause and review’ timescale remains. The government has said it doesn’t want ‘to pause defunding in the longer term for now,’ meaning the debate about which other qualifications should be funded in the future continues. A focal point may be any further reforms to T levels.

On to other news this week, much of which has focused on the latest quarterly figures on the economy and the labour market..

Inflation slightly up as expected, employment in the words of the Institute for Employment “in the doldrums” and growth generally as expected but still as the BBC explained, ‘in recovery.’

‘An economy that’s chugging along at a decent clip,’ according to Bloomberg UK but some way off the growth targets needed by the government.

Elsewhere things have remained busy across different parts of education.

Here’s a quick rundown with a check on any top stories from the previous week when Education Eye wasn’t published.

In schools, Bridget Phillipson’s plans to include tackling fake news in the government’s curriculum review received a mixed response.

‘A good idea in theory’ according to one family blogger but will teachers have enough time and aren’t social media platforms the problem?

It was a point also made by the NAHT who were quick to point out that many schools already tackle the issue by incorporating critical thinking in their curriculum. “Critical thinking skills are not new to education,” they gently reminded the education secretary.

As for last week, a report from the Education Policy Institute about pupil absences, made a number of headlines.

In essence it highlighted that while the overall level had fallen, “the absence gap’ between vulnerable and other pupils has continued to grow, and would appear to be widening underlying inequalities for these vulnerable groups, whose education has suffered the most in the wake of the pandemic.”

ASCL responded to the report by calling it “a tragedy for the students and families affected” and urged the government to prioritise action.

In FE, the Guardian offered its thoughts on post-16 qualification reform arguing that more time and transparency was needed to get things right.

In what education commentator Tom Richmond called, “a suitably brutal verdict,” it reckoned that “the switch to T levels has been botched” and that a better option might be to drag and paste the whole exercise into the government’s recently announced wider curriculum review.

The danger of course, and we’ve been here before, is that the review ends up as a repository for an ever-lengthening list of ills in the education system that need resolving.

As for top news from the previous week, the AoC’s briefing note on supporting community cohesion in the wake of recent riots was an important and timely reminder of the key role colleges play in local communities.

On to HE where the important voice of Sir Philip Augar could be heard again although this time in the pages of the FT. Interviewed ahead of this week’s results day which could be crucial for many institutions’ subsequent recruitment, he reckoned ‘it wouldn’t be fair or wise’ to let any institutions go to the wall.

In his view, the sector needed a cash injection either by increasing the size of the government grant or raising tuition fees. And, given Labour’s majority, “this is the moment in the political cycle to do it.” More for the Chancellor’s in-tray.

In other news, University Alliance reported that when it came to graduate recruitment, it wasn’t so much where you studied as what you studied that mattered. Their commissioned report identified four “graduate characteristics that were clearly most important to employers when recruiting.” These included in order, enthusiasm, transferrable skills, subject studied and vocational experience.

The British Council pointed to a slowing down in the recruitment of students from East Asia in a new report. “By 2019,” it noted, “enrolment of SEA students in the UK was 8 per cent or 3,500 lower than in 2015.” Local HE options and opportunities by regional governments seemed to have been a factor. The reports suggested ‘new and innovative partnerships’ let alone investment is all needed to attract such students to the UK.

And from last week, the OfS published its Business Plan for 2024/25 listing eleven goals under the three main strands of quality and standards, equality of opportunity, and enabling regulation but with a core theme being the financial sustainability of the sector. And HESA reported a 3% increase in the number of students enrolled in UK universities in 2022/23 and a further fall (to 30%) in the number gaining a first-class hons as it published delayed student data for the year.

But it’s been a week or so of exam and assessment results with just GCSEs to come next week and no sign, as yet at least, of that infamous Jeremy Clarkson tweet.

Links to most of these stories below starting with the week’s headlines.

The top headlines of the week:

• ‘Ofqual: Boosting student grades for RAAC not fair’ (Monday).
• ‘UK universities must cut costs to survive, warns Augar’ (Tuesday).
• ‘A-level students choosing narrower range of subjects after Gove reforms’ (Wednesday).
• ‘Top A level grades are up – but worrying regional disparities remain’ (Thursday).
• ‘Two tier system: record A level results highlight regional divide’ (Friday).

More specifically ...

Schools:

• Summer results. The government welcomed this year’s A level, T level, BTEC and other results, pointing to the slight increase in top grades and the record numbers of disadvantaged 18-year-olds gaining university places as notable positives and praising students and teachers alike, but acknowledging continuing issues around regional inequalities.
• Exams data. The Joint Council for Qualifications published the full data set for this summer’s results pointing to over one million qualifications achieved including 250,000 vocational and technical results, with STEM subjects, notably maths, showing an increase in entries.
• Result Day analysis. FFT Education Dalatab reported on some of the main trends in grades and subject entries for this year’s L3 exams and awards affirming that grades in England remained similar to last year although with some variations in subjects, pointing also to low retention rates for some T levels and the preponderance of top grades at independent schools.  
• Post-16 subject choices. The British Academy published a research report, undertaken by the NFER, into post-16 subject choices showing how these have narrowed for students over the past 20 years with the 2015/16 separation of AS and A levels seen as a key factor, leading ultimately to concerns about the impact on a young person’s career options let alone future university provision.
• Creative pressure. ASCL examined provisional entry trends ahead of this week’s A level exams pointing to a continuing and concerning drop in entries for creative arts and technology subjects, suggesting that the EBacc was to blame.
• Reading challenge. The National Literacy Trust announced the winners from its latest ‘We Wonder’ literacy challenge, one of a number of challenges aimed at encouraging children to read different texts and which this year reached over 25,000 pupils.

FE/Skills:

• L3 results. The AoC published its breakdown of the L3 results awarded this week running through A levels, T levels and other vocational qualifications, along with lists of top subjects and grades.
• Post-16 qualifications. The Guardian called in an Editorial for the government’s ‘pause and review’ of applied post-16 qualifications to become part of its wider curriculum review and for colleges to be given greater clarity about the review process and its timescale to help with future planning.
• E and M industry. The consultancy PwC reported that the UK’s entertainment and media market (E and M) is likely to overtake Germany and become the largest in Europe next year with advertising, the gaming market and streaming services among the big drivers for growth.

Not-to-be-missed numbers of the week:

• 0.6%. The growth figure for the UK economy between April and June, according to the ONS and in line with expectations.
• 2.2%. The UK inflation rate last month, up slightly for the first time this year with a small upward trend expected over coming months according to commentators.
• £4.19m. The median pay for a FTSE 100 CEO last year, up from £4.1m the year before according to the High Pay Centre.
• 4.2%. The estimated UK unemployment figure for the period April-June, the lowest figure this year according to the ONS.
• 22.2%. The economic inactivity rate over the last quarter, little changed according to latest labour market figures from the ONS.
• 8%. The number of employers in a survey who valued the type of institution a graduate attended, as opposed to 52% who valued the subject studied, according to a survey by University Alliance.
• 27,600. The number of UK disadvantaged 18-year-olds gaining a place at university this year, up 7% on last year according to UCAS.
• 278,590. The number of apprenticeships starts over the year to April 2024, up 1.1% according to latest government figures.
• 250,000. The number of vocational and technical qualification results issued for results week, according to the Joint Council for Qualifications.
• 88.7%. The percentage of T level students awarded a Pass or above for their overall T level, according to government figures.
• 2.67 The average number of A levels taken by 18-year-olds in England this year, according to Ofqual.
• 76%. The percentage of grades at C or above for this year’s A levels, slightly up on last year according to latest government figures.
• 107,427. The number of entries for A level maths this year, the first time they have exceeded 100,000 according to the Joint Council for Qualifications.
• 46%. The rise over the last year in the number of calls on family conflict and relationship issues made to Action for Children’s Parent Talk helpline, according to data from the charity.
• 8. The number of countries that are home to children who spend more than half the year in temperatures above 35c, according to UNICEF.

Everything else you need to know ...

What to look out for next week

• GCSE Results Day (Thursday 22 August).
• MPs’ summer break (Tuesday 30 July – Monday 2 September).