Steve Besley's Education Eye: week ending 25 October 2024

It’s been hard to find much good news this week.

Two disturbing reports on special educational needs (SEND) provision, another report identifying the need for skills system reform and worries about future university student numbers, all have rather set the tone.

In the interests of balance there have been some positives as well this week. These have included further lively debate about curriculum reform for schools and an OfS survey reporting happier users. There were even some glimmers of hope in the IfS report on college finances.

All things to hang on to perhaps and summarised below but we start with those two reports on SEND first.

One came from the County Councils Network (CCN) and the other from the National Audit Office (NAO,) highlighting in each case an ‘alarming rising cost in provision’ at a time when finances are under scrutiny.

According to the County Councils Network which reported on its survey of members at the start of the week: “Twenty-six of England’s largest councils could have to declare bankruptcy by 2027 if the multi-billion special educational needs and disabilities services (SEND) deficits they are grappling with are placed onto their budget books.”

It reckoned SEND deficits could hit £3.8bn by 2027. The worry is that the current accountancy ‘override’ ends in March 2026 which could see deficits end up on council budgets.

It was a picture repeated by the Local Government Association (LGA) – ‘failing SEND system in urgent need of reform – and reflected now in this latest report from the NAO. “England’s special educational needs (SEN) system is not delivering better outcomes for children and young people; is financially unsustainable and in urgent need of reform,” they concluded.

“It’s a grim diagnosis,” as The Guardian explained, much of it stemming from the expansion of eligibility with accompanying Education and Health Care (EHC) plans set out in the 2014 Children and Families Act but without the funds provided to support it.

As both reports make clear, while the headlines may be about the money, at the bottom of it all is the fact that the needs of children and families aren’t being met.

So what to do?

The NAO report put forward nine recommendations largely involving working with local authorities to examine costs and provision, the setting out of a long-term vision and considering whole-system reform.

As the NAHT summed it up: “Urgent action needed to prevent SEND system collapse.” The CCN added that such action was needed “within the next 18 months.” Both point to a clock ticking.

As for those two other rather downbeat reports this week, one was from the House of Lords Industry and Regulators Committee calling for a simpler skills system, a more flexible levy model and a potential tax credit to encourage employers to invest in training.

Details were set out in a letter to the skills minister. “We found that the skills system is complex, short-term and lacks strategic direction, making it difficult for those engaging in the system to understand it,” it started, before going on to list a further six issues.

David Hughes, the Chief Executive of the AoC, who gave evidence to the Inquiry endorsed the findings. “The issues highlighted by the inquiry won’t come as a surprise to college leaders, as they reflect the reality of the barriers they face every single day.”

And the other report was from the President of the HE Policy Institute, taking a deep breath and looking rather ruefully at the picture on student recruitment over the coming decade. He concluded that things were looking “highly uncertain,” pointing to such factors as the cost-of-living, a ‘hostile’ policy environment’ and a demographic down turn among young people as not helping.

Not everyone was downbeat. Former UCAS director John Cope, for instance, reckoned growth could come from adult learners, apprentices, and flexible and online provision. “With the right policies in place, there’s no reason we can’t sustain growth in the numbers entering high-quality education and training,” he concluded.

Before going on to other news, a quick word on another NAO report this week, this time on the work of the DfE over the past year.

With a smattering of charts and diagrams, it’s a helpful summary of how and where the dept spent its £88.4bn budget last year.

It comes complete with a ‘what to look out for’ section under each phase of education, which many people might find interesting.

Under schools for instance, one thing singled out was the teaching workforce where “vacancies have more than doubled in three years, from 1,100 in November 2020 to 2,800 in November 2023.” The NAO is promising a further report on this area next spring.

Also Ofsted and how the latest changes pan out here, as well as issues around attendance and behaviour and the impact of demographic changes with secondary school numbers due to peak in 2026. “Schools and further education providers will need to respond to changing demands to ensure value for money,” the report says sternly.

Under FE/HE, the report points to three things to look out.

These include the setting up of Skills England and how this works out. Also the refocusing of the Office for Students (OfS) on the financial stability of the sector and student outcomes, a continuing hot topic, and the impact of the Lifelong Learning Entitlement and how that shapes up ready for take-off next year.

Finally, back to those other stories and the rest of the education news this week.

In schools, the education secretary announced a review of centrally approved free schools that haven’t yet opened. Academy trusts will “continue to have a crucial role” but this is about better targeting of funding and use of surplus places.

“Officials will work with local authorities and academy trusts to take this work forward over the autumn and will write to them now, setting out next steps in relation to individual projects.”

As ASCL acknowledged, “as demographics change, it does seem sensible to keep major projects such as the building of new schools under review.” The NEU said it was an opportunity “to undo fourteen years of chaos in school management and planning.”

Elsewhere for schools, the Independent Schools Council highlighted concerns about the impact of the VAT burden on independent faith schools, claiming many could disappear.

And, as indicated earlier, lively debate is emerging abut curriculum reform in light of the ‘National Conversation’ which closes next month.

Schools Week, for instance, is hosting a platform for contributions and this week included an interesting article from Pearson’s Sharon Hague suggesting that while major reforms might take time, ’tweaks to some creative subjects’ could be implemented pretty quickly by awarding organisations and could help learners in multiple ways in the interim.

Moving on to FE where this week, the IfS reported on college finances. Things may have stabilised somewhat since the spending cuts following 2010/11 but ‘the share of institutions in deficit remains significant at 37%.’

The report goes on to point to two key challenges facing the sector. First, demand from the rising numbers of 16/17 year olds between 2023 and 2028 and second, the recruitment and retention of staff. To quote the AoC again ‘we need a long-term investment plan to bring colleges back to health.’ Another group that will be following the Chancellor’s speech with particular interest next week.

In HE, University Alliance published its Budget and Spending Review submission for the Treasury with funding inevitably one of the prominent headlines.

“At the Spending Review, the government must take the tough but necessary decision to increase one or a combination of domestic tuition fees, public investment in universities, or contributions from employers.” Teacher recruitment, pension flexibility and student maintenance support were among its other key asks. Treasury officials should be able to recognise the list by now.

Elsewhere, the Office for Students (OfS) reported that users were somewhat happier with how it engaged with them.

A commissioned survey noted improvements in the tone, clarity of communications and availability of staff although as Susan Lapworth, the chief executive of OfS acknowledged “'All regulators have to tread a careful line in their communication and engagement with the organisations they regulate. A universally popular regulator is unlikely to be effective.”

And in a small-scale study, Edge and Sheffield Hallam found little evidence that degree apprenticeships did much to further the government’s widening participation agenda, it was more a case of responding to industry need. “While WP almost always will lead to enhanced social mobility for the individual, social mobility via degree apprenticeships per se does necessarily widen participation,” they concluded.

Links to most of these stories below starting with the week’s headlines.

The top headlines of the week:

• ‘The funding crisis threatening England’s special needs education’ (Monday).
• ‘Ministers pause plans to open 44 new state schools in England’ (Tuesday).
• ‘International students hedge bets in unstable policy landscape’ (Wednesday).
• ‘Special educational needs bill in England hits record £10bn a year’ (Thursday).
• ‘Alarm at first fall in disadvantaged students in England reaching university’ (Friday).

More specifically ...

Schools:

• Free schools. The education secretary announced a review of ‘mainstream free school projects approved by central government but not yet opened,’ arguing that this would help ensure that funding and surplus capacity could be targeted where it’s most needed.
• SEND report. The National Audit Office (NAO) published its report into how the system of SEND support is working, concluding that it’s currently ‘financially unsustainable’ and failing to meet the needs of families and children, let alone creating financial deficits for councils, calling for a major system overhaul as a result.
• SEND survey. The County Council Network published the results of its survey among members about the pressures building up over special needs and disabilities (SEND) budgets with 26 out of 38 councils in England facing bankruptcy within three years as SEND deficits increase.
• School attendance. The Centre for Young Lives/Child of the North called for stronger early intervention and collaborative support, with case study evidence demonstrating the importance of such features, as they published a new report showing the risks facing vulnerable children from disadvantaged areas.
• Educational disadvantage. SchoolDash examined educational disadvantage in England in a project funded by Gatsby suggesting that there can be many aspects to this, differing for example by region and school type and with teacher turnover and curriculum priorities all defining factors.
• Using test data. FFT Education Datalab examined a small-scale dataset to see how far test score data, such as end of year tests, can help predict pupil future performance, finding interestingly that maths appears better than English at predicting future English performance.

FE/Skills:

• College finances. The IfS reported on the financial health and challenges facing colleges in England acknowledging that while finances have largely stabilised following nearly a decade of cuts, many colleges still face financial difficulties and challenges over teacher recruitment, shifting policy demands and demographic changes. 
• Apprenticeships. Baroness Ann Taylor, Chair of the Lords Industry and Regulators Committee highlighted a range of issues coming out of the Committee’s Inquiry into skills and apprenticeships, largely around the complexity of the current skills system and dissatisfaction with the levy, calling for a simpler system, more flexible levy and incentives to encourage employer investment.
• Digital survey. JISC published the results of its latest survey into the digital experiences of staff, showing the quality of the digital teaching environment improving but many staff still calling for training and support and finding it difficult to find the time to explore opportunities further.
• Annual report. The ECITB reported on progress in its three-year strategy as it published its annual report and accounts for 2023, pointing to the work done to support workforce growth and productivity across the engineering construction industry but equally the challenges around skills, new technologies, infrastructure expectations and net zero demands, with a current likely budget deficit of £2.2m.
• Skills debate. The AoC set out its thoughts on skills, funding, local planning, the role of colleges and the key coordinating role for Skills England, as members of the House of Lords began debating the Institute for Apprenticeships and Technical Education (IfATE) Bill in its Second Reading.
• Essential skills. Tom Ravenscroft, CEO of Skills Builder, tackled the long-standing issue of core or essential skills in an article in the New Statesman, arguing that the time is now right for the eight skills, such as speaking and listening, listed in the Universal Framework for Essential Skills, to be adopted.

Not-to-be-missed numbers of the week:

• 1.5%. The (uplifted) growth projection for the UK economy for 2025, according to the IMF.
• £12.60 an hour. The new rate for those on the real Living Wage, £13.85 an hour in London, a voluntary figure paid by signed up employers and higher than the legal minimum wage according to the Living Wage Foundation.
• 24%. The number of HE teaching staff using AI in their teaching activities, according to a survey from JISC.
• 29%. The progression rate for university entry in 2022/23 for those on free school meals, down slightly on previous figures according to latest government data.
• 1.9m. The estimated number of children and young people with special education needs as of the start of this year, according to the NAO.
• £10.7bn. The government’s current budget allocation for SEND provision, according to the NAO.
• 16. The number of new Youth Ambassadors that the Children’s Commissioner is seeking to recruit, according to the Commissioner’s website.
• 518. The number of projects currently listed under the Schools Rebuilding Programme, according to latest figures from the government.

Everything else you need to know ...

What to look out for next week

• Westminster Hall debate on ‘Online safety for children and young people’ (Tuesday 29 October).
• Budget Statement (Wednesday 30 October).
• Universities UK Global Research and Innovation Conference (Thursday 31 October).

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