Steve Besley's Education Eye: week ending 06 December 2024

Welcome to Education Eye, a regular update detailing the policies and stories happening in UK education, compiled by Steve Besley.

What's happened this week?

Important stories across the board:

A week packed with announcements, reports and pretty much anything in between.

The big announcement, politically at least, has been the launch by the Prime Minister of a new Plan for Change with a set of ‘measurable missions’ including one for early years education.

This will require the percentage of children considered ready for school by age 5 to rise from 67.7% to 75%. Within reach according to most, although harder for children eligible for free school meals according to the Sutton Trust.

It’s not just been the PM who’s been busy.

Ministers too have been on the front foot declaring reforms for T levels, funding for SEND provision and the introduction of two new DfE advisory groups, one to advise on neurodivergence among children and young people and the other to seek the views of young people on the creation of a Youth Guarantee.

Elsewhere MPs have been busy in parliament discussing the financial stability of HE, home-school transport for children with SEND and primary school breakfast clubs.

And on the Committee front, the Education Committee questioned expert witnesses on L3 qualification reforms before subsequently penning a note to ministers calling for alternative forms of L3 qualifications such as BTECs to remain. “Our view is that students should not be faced with the binary choice of A Levels or T Levels.”

As for reports, it’s been a busy week here too. Here’s a listing.

In no particular order as they say on Strictly, the latest Trends in International Maths and Science Study (TIMSS) study reported strong performance in England. Ofsted published its latest Annual Report pointing to some reasons to be cheerful. ‘Tis the season.

The Education Policy Institute and the Centre for Young Lives published important reports on pupils missing school, NFER examined possible levers for incentivising teacher recruitment, the Edge Foundation surveyed students about their views on T levels and the HE Policy Institute published figures on graduate social mobility in England.

Here are some of the key points from this rush of information.

To start with the latest TIMSS report which broadly looks at the performance of 9/10 year olds and 13/14-year-olds in participating countries in maths and science.

England has participated in the Study since it started in 1995, using it to build up a picture of trends in performance in key subjects. Testing this time took place among samples of Yr 5 and 9 pupils between March and June last year and in a word “pupils performed significantly above the 2023 international mean in both subjects and both year groups” although performance in science, notably among Yr 5 pupils, was more varied.

But for maths “performance improved significantly.”

As political commentator Sam Freedman tweeted: “English pupils improvement in maths is probably the biggest public policy success of the last 15 years (in an admittedly small field).” Although the NAHT said “we must be careful not to overinterpret the results.”

The TES, Schools Week and others all have excellent analysis of all the data but in summary, we’re not among the highest performing countries internationally but we are above “the TIMSS centrepoint.”

Next, Ofsted’s latest Annual Report, slimmer this year given impending consultation on a new inspection framework leaving us largely with overall commentary and little of the detailed analysis of previous years.

Ultimately the Report affirms, “most children are well-served by the education sector and, in social care, life-changing work is being done for children and young people every day.”

Key messages include concerns about school absences, a SEND system under pressure and issues over the recruitment of trained staff while on the positive side ‘the vast majority of early years providers are doing a good job’ and ‘the quality of apprenticeships appears to be improving.’

The detailed picture now awaits the framework reforms including in particular the emergence of the promised report cards.

Moving on to pupils missing schools, a major concern and the subject of two more reports this week.

Part of the issue has been the difficulty of getting a handle on exact figures involved. This week the Education Policy Institute adopted ‘a novel method.’

“We subtracted the number of children aged 5-15 enrolled in school from the number of children aged 5-15 registered in GP practices. We then pulled out those formally registered in elective home education to arrive at an estimate of the number of children ‘missing’ from education.” And the estimate came to a worrying 305,000 last year, many of whom were from disadvantaged and vulnerable groups.

Unsurprisingly the report called among other things for a proper register of children outside of education. ASCL commented that such a register “is long overdue.”

The other report came from the Centre for Young Lives and under the title ‘Too Skint for School’ looked at the links between family poverty and school absence

With the cost of uniforms and other school contributions a big concern for many, the report called among other things for reducing the maximum number of logos on school uniforms from a proposed three to one to help those struggling financially.

On teacher recruitment, the NFER looked at what levers the government might be able to pull if it wanted to meet its target of 6,500 new teachers over the life of this parliament. Chunky pay rises could cost up to £7.7bn by 2027/28 and were “unlikely to be feasible in the current fiscal environment.”

Other, more manageable options could include bursaries for shortage subjects or making the profession more attractive through career support and workload reductions.

Some of these might be less immediately attractive and the Foundation called for “the government to invest in deepening the evidence base of interventions that can improve teacher recruitment and retention.”

According to the NAHT “the answer is not, however, simplistic and divisive payments targeting teachers in certain shortage subjects, or by location or type of school. That will not address the fundamental challenge, which is to build a rewarding, sustainable and attractive career and pay structure that will encourage professionals to remain in the long term."

Finally for schools, two important data drops this week.

On KS4 performance, there was a slight improvement in the number of pupils gaining a grade 5 or above in their English and maths GCSEs but as the Education Endowment Foundation highlighted, the gap widened slightly for disadvantaged pupils where the figure was 25.8%. The Average Attainment 8 score dropped slightly this year to 45.9.

And on initial teacher training (ITT) and postgrad initial teacher training (PGITT) where the latest figures showed an increase in recruitment for some secondary subjects such as English, maths and Biology, the NFER noted that both primary and secondary remain below recruitment targets. ASCL said the recruitment situation remains “grave.”

Next FE, where its been T level Celebration Week with a number of news stories about not just T levels but L3 qualifications generally.

The minister kicked things off by announcing some reforms to T levels to help tackle the often hard-to-meet industry placement requirement, putting forward a range of flexibilities including simulations, remote experience and small group projects as options. “We’ve listened to businesses and these changes reflect what they need to help them offer T Levels.” Guidance is promised for next month.

The need to tackle issues with work placements was also made clear in a survey report from the Edge Foundation this week.

This looked into the experiences of students on T level programmes and found many frustrated that their placement hadn’t worked out as hoped for. As the report explained “the reality of their work placement experience was polarising for students, and placements did not always live up to the expectations set during induction.”

T levels remain, as the report suggests, work in progress and some of the issues raised in Ofsted’s report last year still remain as the government looks to secure post-16 pathways more clearly in users minds.

Interestingly, the Education Committee, which took evidence on L3 reform this week, moved swiftly to highlight some of these issues and to urge the government to retain alternative qualifications such as BTECs and not restrict choice for students. “Students are faced with a narrowing range of qualification options at the age of 16 and uncertainty about which qualifications best serve their needs.”

In other news for FE, the NFER called for greater support and investment for workers at risk from changing skill requirements in the labour market. “Twelve million people work in occupations that are projected to decline, putting them at higher risk of losing their jobs” it argued.

Bringing together evidence from its Nuffield funded Skills Imperative along with thoughts from an expert panel, it called for better support, investment, provision and careers guidance for those most at risk..

In HE, the OfS took the sharp step of pausing, temporarily, some of its registration work to allow it to concentrate on institutions facing financial pressures. “We need to prioritise our finite resources on this important issue.” The temporary measures are likely to last to next August when hopefully the financial scenario will be clearer.

Not everyone was impressed. The Chief Executive of Independent Higher Education, many of whose members are likely to miss out on OfS registration as a result, called it “a dereliction of their (the OfS’s) statutory duty.”

In other news, HEPI published South Bank’s latest English HE Social Mobility Index, showing which institution’s graduates had performed best in terms in terms of social mobility. Bradford and Aston once again topped the rankings with Bolton, Salford and Birmingham Newman Universities all moving up the ranks.

The Social Market Foundation highlighted the difficulties facing care leaver and estranged students who often have to rely on a patchy system of funding and support if they want to pursue a place in HE. “Those that do attend often have to choose their university based on the financial support offered, limiting their options and chance of success.”

Links to most of these stories below starting with the week’s headlines.

The top headlines of the week:

‘Reforms announced to T levels in England after slow uptake’ (Monday)
‘Up to 300,000 children could be missing out on education in England, think tank suggests’ (Tuesday)
‘English pupils do better than expected in international maths and science tests’ (Wednesday)
‘Ofsted ‘alarmed’ by absences and flex-schooling’ (Thursday)
‘OfS register pause will make sector financial problems worse’ (Friday)

General:

Milestone missions. The PM launched a new ‘Plan for Change’ listing six ‘milestones’ covering living standards, NHS waiting lists, home building, safer streets, clean energy and childhood development, intended to provide ‘deliverable milestones’ for the government’s current missions.
MPs’ shorter working day. Personnel Today reported on the work of the Modernisation Committee set up by Labour to look at modernising working practices in Westminster including a potential shorter working day for MPs and more virtual voting, with a call for evidence ending next week.
Business confidence. The Institute of Directors (IoD) pointed to a significant drop in levels of business confidence in the UK economy as it published its latest Directors’ Economic Confidence Index showing employment tax replacing skills and/or labour shortages as the second biggest concern to business leaders and cited by 67% of respondents.
Private sector dips. The CBI reported an expected fall in private sector business activity, including likely cuts to headcounts, over the next few months as firms come to terms with the economic environment laid out by the Budget.
Economic Outlook. The OECD upped its projection for economic growth for the UK next year to 1.7% and 1.3% the year after, with inflation hovering at 2.7% and 2.3% respectively as it published its latest Global Economic Outlook, calling for countries generally to undertake ‘ambitious structural reforms’ in areas like education and skills to help build foundations for growth.
Cyber Security. The National Cyber Security Centre published its 2024 Annual Review highlighting its work with key partners, the current extent of threats and players involved and the work being undertaken to identify and manage risks where ransomware and the use of AI stand out as the most ‘pervasive’ risks.
Social Mobility. The Social Mobility Commission set out a new long-term approach to improving social mobility in the UK, calling for a shift from the current rather ‘narrow’ focus on disadvantaged young people’s access to HE and professional careers to a better understanding of the impact of different regions, family support and young people not in education or employment.
EU. The new EU Commission met for the first time and set out its priorities for the next five years with social exclusion, skills, child poverty, economic stability and climate change among its seven core areas of action.

More specifically ...

Schools:

SEND provision. The Education Secretary announced ‘a £740m cash injection’ from this Autumn’s Budget to support SEND facilities in schools along with the creation of a new ‘Neurodivergence Task and Finish Group’ to provide advice to the dept on inclusion.
TIMSS Report. The government reported on the performance in last year’s Trends in International Maths and Science Study (TIMSS,) taken by pupils in Years 5 and 9 across 267 schools showing them performing ‘above the international mean’ in both subjects albeit below the highest-performing countries.
Annual Report. Ofsted published its latest Annual Report covering inspections over the last year but in less detail pending reforms to the inspection system but highlighting concerns over SEND pressures, school absences and the recruitment of trained staff.
Teacher recruitment. The National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) examined what sorts of incentives the government might be able to use to meet its ambition of recruiting 6,500 more teachers, suggesting that relying on pay alone could be prohibitive and pointing to other carrots such as bursaries but also non-financial measures like reducing workloads.
Missing from school. The Education Policy Institute called for ‘a more complete register of children not in school’ and requirements on schools to record the reasons when a pupil is taken off roll as it published a new report showing a huge rise in the number of pupils missing from education with certain groups particularly vulnerable.
Poverty and school absence. The Centre for Young Lives highlighted the links between family poverty and pupil absences from school in a new report pointing to a big rise in absence rates among the poorest groups calling among other things for a scrapping of the two-child limit, better financial relief for families and regarding severe absence as a safeguarding issue.
Digital exams. Pearson reported that subject to regulatory approval it was intending to offer on-screen assessments for its GCSEs in History and Business Studies from 2027 which would mean that with computer science GCSE already available for on-screen assessment and English Lang and Lit from next year, a third of its GCSEs would be available for such assessment within three years.
Oak impact. Oak National Academy reported a fall in the number of online lessons accessed but an increase in the number of teachers that found its services and resources helped them save time and workloads and supported them with curriculum planning, as it continued its shift away from emergency to more regular classroom use.

FE/Skills:

T levels. The Skills Minister announced a flexing up of T level industry placements that would allow for 20% to be undertaken in many cases remotely along with simulations and group activities, with detailed guidelines to follow next month.
Student views on T levels. The Edge Foundation called for a new approach to work placements and clarity around progression routes as it published the results of its survey into the experiences of students and staff involved in T levels, finding many valuing the work placement element and the mix of learning but others experiencing delays on their placement and variable course delivery.
Youth Guarantee. The Education Secretary confirmed the creation of a new Youth Guarantee Advisory Panel to represent the views of young people, as she set out in a letter to the Chair of the Education Committee the work the dept would be doing to implement the proposals in the recent ‘Get Britain Working’ white paper.
Apprenticeships. The Social Market Foundation called for a national campaign and incentive payments for young (under 19) apprentices as it published a new report showing apprenticeship numbers declining among young people and among SMEs struggling to recruit them.
Skills Imperative. The National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) reported on its Nuffield Foundation funded work looking into future skills and the labour market, pointing to the transitional challenges that workers face as skills demands change, calling for more investment, training and careers support for those at risk.

HE:

OfS refocus. The Office for Students (OfS) announced a temporary halt to its work on registering new applications including those seeking degree awarding powers or changing titles, as it looked to shift most of its ‘finite’ resources to working with universities facing financial pressures.
Social Mobility. The HE Policy Institute (HEPI) published the results of the latest Social Mobility Index for English HE, compiled by London South Bank and based on ‘social mobility’ distance travelled by an institution’s graduates, showing Bradford and Aston continuing to top the listing but the number of Russell Group institutions in the top ten falling.
Devolution matters. HEPI published a commissioned report looking into the impact of devolution on HE policies across the UK, noting that each of the four nations had developed ‘markedly different systems’ on matters such as funding and regulation leaving questions remaining about the future of such arrangements let alone how best nations could work together.
Diversity of governors. Advance HE reported what it called ‘a mixed picture’ as it published a new report on diversity of governors in HE institutions with an increase in the number of governors from a minority ethnic background on governing bodies but a slowdown in the number of women represented.
Care leaver and estranged students. The Social Market Foundation called for the reintroduction of student grants and for funding for care leaver or estranged students as it published a new report, commissioned by Unite Students, showing inconsistent and poor levels of funding and support for such students.
Newsmakers. The Times Higher listed ten figures from across higher education who made the news in varying ways this year, from a breakdancing Australian lecturer to a Bangladeshi student protestor.

Tweets and posts of note:

“Anonymous Tweet: What are the best and worst Christmas gifts you've received as a Headteacher from staff or parents? This came up in a recent staff conversation—worst suggestion so far: a microwave crisp maker!” -@Headteacherchat.
“Downing Street says the PM does not want children to stop eating porridge despite the govt including it in a new list of junk foods that will be banned from pre-watershed advertising on TV”-@JasonGroves1.
“I'm sorry but I just can't make myself care about student books. If I've got 15 minutes and the choice between making them go through and tag in sheets and underline dates and titles, or teaching them something, I'm going to choose the latter every. single. Time” -@MBDscience.
“Shout out to everyone who does things so far in advance that they forgot that they did and ended up doing it twice because they saved it in a different place the second time to the first time and it all just got a bit confusing” -@UnofficialOA.

A selection of quotes that merit attention:

“We are not choosing targets that are easily reached. Instead, we are choosing stretch goals that will make the biggest difference to people’s lives as we deliver a decade of national renewal” – the PM outlines new milestones for the government.
“In the past year, we have seen crippling attacks against institutions that have brought home the true price tag of cyber incidents” – the head of the National Cyber Security Centre warns of the constant dangers around cyber security.
“If we want social mobility to have meaning beyond the ‘lucky few’, it is important to realign social mobility policy so that it more directly addresses the real obstacles to opportunity which characterise our times” – the Social Mobility Commission sets out a different approach to identifying social mobility.
“These are temporary measures and we will keep them under review” – the Office for Students refocuses its work around supporting institutions facing financial pressures.
“We are cutting red tape to make it easier than ever for employers and providers to take part in T Level Industry Placements while ensuring students benefit from meaningful, high-quality experiences” – the Skills Minister flexes T level industry placements.
“It is clear that if post-16 education only offered A Levels or T Levels there would not be a sufficient and appropriate range of options for students with different abilities and prior attainment” – the Education Committee calls for alternative L3 qualifications such as BTECs to remain.
“Whilst T Levels offer a promising alternative to traditional technical and vocational qualifications, the newness of the qualification has led to a great variability of experiences” – Edge reports on students experiences with T levels.
“This data illustrates the depth of the recruitment crisis” – the NEU reacts to the latest initial teacher training figures.
“There are no silver bullets (and there will never be enough silver to go around) but many of the problems can be mitigated through joined-up thinking and partnership working” – the Chief Inspector in Ofsted’s Annual Report.
“We spoke to parents on low incomes who were living a constant grind of managing the impact of having no money every day, draining their energy to battle with their children who didn’t want to go to school, for whatever reason” – the Centre for Young Lives reports on the links between family poverty and school absence.

Not-to-be-missed numbers of the week:

1,957. The number of cyber-attacks reported to the National Cyber Security Centre over the past year with nearly 90 of national significance, according to the Centre’s Annual Review.
81%. The number of FE providers that had a full inspection this year and were judged good or outstanding for overall effectiveness, according to latest figures from Ofsted.
144,895. The number of completed Ofqual regulated apprenticeship end point assessments (EPAs) in England for March 2023-Feb 2024, with Business and Admin having the highest number according to latest Ofqual figures.
27,746. The number of new entrants to initial teacher training (ITT) this year, up 5% on last year, with 23,011 starting postgrad ITT according to latest government figures.
45.9%. The percentage of pupils in state schools in England achieving grade 5 or above in English and maths GCSEs for 2023/24, up 0.6% on 2022/23 according to latest government figures.
53%. The rise in the number of children not in school between 2017 and 2023, according to analysis from the Education Policy institute.
7%. The overall pupil absence rate across state schools in England for w/commencing 18 November, according to latest government figures.
40,000+ The additional number of young children needed to be school-ready under the government’s Plan for Change.
£260,000. The cost to couples of raising a child from birth to age 18, according to calculations from the Child Poverty Action Group.

Everything else you need to know ...

What to look out for next week

MPs’ Education Questions (Monday 9 December)
HEPI/Unipol event on Student Accommodation in London (Tuesday 10 December)
Ofqual statistics on malpractice in this summer’s GCSE/AS/A levels (Thursday 12 December)
UCAS End of Cycle reporting, revised date (Thursday 12 December)

Steve Besley

Disclaimer: Education Eye is intended to help colleagues keep up to date with national developments in the education sector. Information is correct at the time of writing and is offered in good faith. No liability is accepted by Steve Besley or EdCentral for decisions made on the basis of any information provided.

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